Jacob deGrom has earned his way into plug-and-play territory for DFS. A feat that blows my mind really, but I am not playing him tonight. Mainly this is due to a complete and udder mistrust of the Mets training staff. I know he says he’s fine and played catch on Sunday but I have seen this play out too many times. I hope I am dead wrong but I can survive one slate without him.
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Anthony DeSclafani, SP: $7,700 – DeSclafani gave up 10 ERs in 2.2 IP against the Dodgers on May 23rd. His era is still 3.09, just to give you an idea of how dominant he’s been. He gets a matchup at home against a team who ranks tied for 29th in wRC+ against RHP since May 1st. He’s not an elite strikeout guy but 22% against a bad team in a pitcher-friendly park will serve us nicely.
Bailey Ober, SP: $6,200 – The rookie has never posted a K/9 below 10 at any level in his professional career. His only stop where his BB/9 was over 2 was this year in AAA over 16 IP. Those numbers are elite status precursors. He’s been better than his 4.85 ERA would indicate as he’s only made it through the 5th inning once in three tries. Though that seems to be intentional as his max pitch count to this point has been 82. He has a higher BABIP and lower GB % than at any of his other stops and I expect some good fortune coming his way as a result. He gets the lowly Mariners in this one.
Catcher / First Base
Freddie Freeman, C/1B: $4,200 – The reigning MVP has found himself in the midst of a heater, he currently holds a 5-game hitting streak. He goes up against an average starter in Garrett Richards and the Red Sox, who currently have the worst bullpen in baseball.
Miguel Sano, C/1B: $3,200- The big man has had better luck since the calendar flipped to June. In which he has had a 9-game hitting streak and 4 homers. He gets a mediocre lefty in Justus Sheffield, who has earned every bit of his 4.91 ERA.
Gavin Lux, 2B: $2,500 – Injuries have thrust Lux into the 2 hole (hey phrasing!) in the lineup. Even being without 3 all-stars, the Dodgers lineup is still very good and knock down even the best pitchers. A cheap hitter at the top of a good lineup is always worth a shot.
Marcus Semien, 2B: $3,300 – No one will be on him with Gerrit Cole on the mound. Semien has been incredible this year and betting on low-owned, highly talented players tend to be more profitable than not.
Rafael Devers, 3B: $3,200 – The man is on fire, multiple hits in 4 of his last 5 games. Tuesday saw him breakthrough with his first homer in 11 days. Atlanta’s bullpen was also worked hard on Tuesday after their starter was injured in the second inning. I like Ian Anderson but he’s not unhittable and this could turn ugly if he doesn’t have his stuff working.
Josh Donaldson, 3B: $3,600 – He has posted the best barrel rate of his career in the statcast era at 16.7%. Which is good enough for top 5% in the league. However, he only has 10 homers and .462 slug to show for it. He gets Justus Sheffield who gives up hard hits 42.1% of the time and barrel rate that puts him in the 20% of baseball.
Dansby Swanson, SS: $2,600 – Swanson has found his way into the #5 spot in what is a good Braves lineup. They play in a hitters park and going up an average starter and a poor pen. He should have plenty of opportunities to knock in runs tonight.
Gleyber Torres, SS: $3,000 – Looking at his numbers he’s hard to get excited about. However, he still has elite plate skills and the Buffalo ballpark is a good environment for runs. His plate skills, pedigree, and lack of other good options have put him in the 3 spot for now. The Blue Jays pen has been hammered by injuries and Ross Stripling has really struggled since being traded away from the Dodgers.
Nelson Cruz, OF: $3,900 – The Boomstick still gets it done at age 40. His 55% hard-hit and 16.7%-barrel rate are both good for top 5% in baseball. Two things as I mentioned, Justus Sheffield is not good at limiting.
Yordan Alvarez, OF: $3,700 – This is where I would talk about how bad Jordan Lyles has been against lefties. However, to be blunt, he’s been that bad against just about everyone. He has a career wOBA allowed of .356 against LHH and .331 vs RHH. Alvarez is one of the best pure hitters in the game and when healthy is a no-brainer against just about anyone, much less someone of Lyles’ ilk.
Kyle Tucker, OF: $3,400 – He’s been on fire since 5/28, .358/.377/.627 with 3 homers. He gets a friendly matchup at home in this one.
Alex Kirilloff, OF: $2,900 – People who target the Twins will likely do so with the righties I’ve mentioned. If you’re on a popular stack like I suspect the Twins will be, it’s important to zig somewhere. It’s even better when you can do so within the team. Over the last two weeks he’s hit .282/.333/.436, the highly touted prospect seems to be coming into his own now that he’s healthy.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Happy to report that there is no poor weather tonight.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Cubs (Robert Stock) at Mets (Jacob deGrom) Cubs +284, O/U runs scored 6.5. I’m betting the Cubs to win and the over at 6.5 runs. Sometimes we bet on the player or team because of matchups, sometimes it’s because of the odds. This is mostly about the latter. deGrom is as good as it gets, but baseball is the game of variance, and +284 is a huge line for an MLB game.