Today’s slate is chalked full of horrible pitchers and the launching pad we know as Coors Field. This is the worst kind of situation…you have Colorado/Washington in Coors who everybody wants to stack. Adding two trashy starting pitchers going – Tanner Roark and Tyler Chatwood – makes this a nightmare situation for DFS players. In cash games this seems simple, you just play them and move on. In GPP this isn’t so easy, everyone is going to have a piece of this game. You can differentiate yourself by doing the opposite, I personally will be doing that. Do this 10 times and you may only be right a few times, but your probability of winning big money goes WAY up. So fair warning, I won’t be covering Colorado or Washington guys in my picks. Obviously you can play them, and should play them (especially in cash games) but I’m here to try and win you all a GPP!
Now onto the picks…
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Carlos Martinez, SP: $9,200 – Have you guys watched Toronto play lately? They’re terrible right now as Donaldson leaves a giant hole in the lineup that can’t be replaced. I’ll stack against Toronto until they show signs of life or Donaldson comes back. Martinez has huge strike out potential (already has a start with 11 this year) and he has a big money line on his side with a solid over/under of 8. Just be mindful of the weather once we get closer to game time.
Matt Shoemaker, SP: $7,700 – Shoemaker is a guy who’s numbers look bad but he’s actually bounced back after a rough start. His last start was against a very good Houston team and he went 7 innings of 2 run ball. He’s also shown strike out potential in the past and has a favorable money line. I wouldn’t talk you out of playing Manaea either but I like the upside and match up a bit more for Shoemaker.
J.T. Realmuto, C: $2,700 – Very nice catcher to pair with Martinez; he’s very affordable and has a very solid chance at a multi-hit night with a run or two because he hits in the 2 hole in front of Yelich and Stanton. Realmuto also has great splits against RHP, and he has a decent eye. Velasquez has been wild to start the year, I don’t expect that to change in one start.
Jonathan Lucroy, C: $2,800 – I’ll play Lucroy any day when hes up against a garbage LHP at Rangers ballpark in Arlington. This is almost too easy; Lucroy is a .295 hitter against southpaws (much better than against RHP). He also has a home run every 23 abs against LHP and every 38 ab against RHP. This is a free spot, take it and move on.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $4,300 – Goldschmidt is one of the best players in baseball as he has a rare combination of power and speed from a 1B. I try to use him any chance I get because of this. Chase Field is an amazing place to hit and Cahill is basically a pitching machine on the mound these days. This will not be the last Diamondback I write up today.
Rougned Odor, 2B: $3,300 – At first this pick may seem odd as Odor has been ice cold for much of the season and it’s a lefty on lefty match up. If you look into his career numbers, though, he’s pretty similar against LHP and RHP. His opponent, Santiago, has similar splits. You also don’t want to play Odor after the break out happens, you need to be ahead of everyone else. Have him in your lineup when he goes 3-5 with 2 bombs, not the game after.
Dee Gordon, 2B: $3,300 – Remember how I said you need to play Billy Hamilton anytime hes on a slate because of his speed? Well Dee Gordon isn’t all that different. He’s very fast playing against a struggling pitcher who’s wild. Velasquez is also pretty young and not very good at keeping his concentration with runners on base. If Gordon can be patient and get on I expect him to steal at least one base. Same situation as Realmuto as well, bats in front of some really good hitters in Yelich and Stanton. Compound all that with a very reasonable price and you have a very good play pivoting from Colorado.
Jake Lamb, 3B: $3,800 – I love me some Rake Lamb! Lamb is on a lot of my seasonal teams and I’ll use him in DFS against almost any RHP. Hes so good against RHP, he also likes to hit in Chase Field. Don’t overthink this, I’m basically all in on him today. I can’t really think of anyone else to play at 3B besides maybe Kris Bryant.
Jordy Mercer, SS: $2,200 – SS is a position you have to go cheap at today. I personally like Mercer a lot as a cheap play because he will be leading off. He gets Lester who hes had some success against over his career. He also in general hits LHP well.
Dansby Swanson, SS: $2,200 – Everyone loves this kid and I don’t really get it. I think he has some talent but doesn’t deserve the hype he had coming into the season. Well he’s crashed back to earth and I think its the perfect time to use him in dfs at a discounted ownership. He should still hit in the 2 hole and has shown moderate success against Syndergaard (3-5 1 rbi, 1 run, 1 stolen base.) Use him If you don’t want to go all in on Mercer.
Asdrubal Cabrera, SS: $3,100 – If you don’t want to go cheap at SS I think Cabrera is the play. He’s had great success against Dickey and hes actually hit almost every knuckleballer hes faced well. I usually don’t like playing guys against knuckleballers unless they have really showed a track record of hitting them for power. Cabrera has and that’s why I’ll use him in spots I can afford to.
Christian Yelich, OF: $4,000 – I will stack three Diamondback guys (leaving Pollock out of my Dbacks stack) just so I can play Yelich today. I love his match up, like him a lot in general as a player and try to use him as much as I can in DFS. I usually focus on Stanton, but Yelich is the better play for a little cheaper price today. He’s just a good hitter with speed and power, he also hits RHP very well.
Jay Bruce, OF $3,600 – Similar to Cabrera, Bruce has shown success against Dickey. He also is a threat to hit a home run every at bat. This is a good combination for GPPs. Don’t use too many Mets but I am perfectly happy having Cabrera and Bruce in my lineups.
David Peralta, OF: $3,300 – Final piece of my Arizona stack, I’ve stated before I really liked Arizona in general today. Peralta is a big part of that stack, another LHB that has a split working in his favor. He will have every chance to do some damage and I suspect he will.
Ryan Rua, OF: $2,100 – Going up against a LHP at Rangers ballpark in Arlington seems like a easy decision. He’ll be popular I’m sure but that’s alright for the price and the opportunity. Rua has success against Santiago as well (6 hits 1 homer .462 average.)
Andrew Toles, OF: $2,200 – Toles should bat lead off against Cueto today. It isn’t the best situation but for the price and the opportunity you have to go with it. He has struggled a bit this season but still has a track record of hitting RHP well. Use if you want to pivot from Rua or want to play Trout and Toles over Yelich and Peralta.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Let me first start the weather out with the game in St Louis. I recommended using Martinez knowing right now there’s a chance of thunderstorms all night. Stay with Martinez until you see the weather an hour before game time, keeping in mind that Twitter is your best friend for the weather. I like Martinez so much that if their is a chance it’ll play I’ll probably roll with him in some lineups. Other than that nothing else is really going on besides some fog in Boston and wind blowing out to right field in Arizona.
Doing Lines In Vegas
If you can afford Syndergaard try to do so (maybe a good pivot off Martinez if you can come up with some savings.) The money line right now is around -180 for the Mets and the over/under is 6.5. That’s a good receipt for success if you’re a pitcher. Arizona/San Diego is pushing Colorado/Washington for highest over/under. One is at 10 the other is at 11. I feel the game in Coors will stay the highest, but don’t be surprised if Arizona (and San Diego) put up more runs combined.
