Welcome everyone, hoping the first two weeks of the baseball season has treated you well. I for one am excited for the first evening Wednesday main slate. It is currently slated for 7 games but the Baltimore game looks bleak.
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Lance McCullers Jr., SP: $9,500 – Strikeout pitcher against a team who strikeouts a lot. Detroit had the highest K-rate against RHP last season.
Dustin May, SP: $9,000 – Saying opinions vary on the big right-hander would be an understatement. However, the Rockies would be basement dwellers in terms of run scored this season if it wasn’t for Coors Field. Which makes them very appealing to stream against when they are on the road.
Carlos Rodon, SP: $8,300 – Rodon made some adjustments over the winter and there was some faint hype coming out of spring training. He’s only made one start but it was a good, 5 IP 0 ER on 2 H and 3 BB. Couple that with Cleveland’s offense just not being any good without Lindor.
Freddie Freeman, C/1B: $4,100 – Brutal start to the campaign for reigning NL MVP. He is however knocking on the doorstep of breaking out. He’s been hitting the ball very hard, xSlug of .783 and an average exit velo of 93.4. He faces off against a rookie in Nick Neidert, who does not strike guys out and had some command issues last time out.
Travis d’Arnaud, C/1B: $2,600 – He hasn’t had quite the tough luck that his teammate Freddie Freeman has. He has still underperformed according to his hard-hit and expected stat metrics though. Betting against a rookie pitcher is a dicey scenario. There is a lot of unknowns and guys haven’t seen him before/often. These guys are due though and Neidert doesn’t exactly have elite prospect pedigree to his name.
Honorable Mentions: I also like both Rhys Hoskins ($4,000) and J.T. Realmuto (3,400) going up against David Peterson and the Mets. The Phillies tagged Peterson for 6 runs last Wednesday and I will definitely have some exposure to both of them.
Jose Altuve, 2B: $3,900 – Jose Altuve revenge tour anyone? The leadoff spot has treated him well to this point hitting .325/.391/.475 to start the year. Michael Fulmer is scheduled to start this as he continues to work his way back from a myriad of injuries. He threw 68 pitches in his last go-around so it won’t be a full-blown bullpen day. Should still be pretty juicy though.
Max Muncy, 2B: $3,200 – Not many good options at 2nd base on this slate. I hope Jon Gray’s resurgence is real, but I willing to bet it is not. Muncy has big power and sits in the middle of a great line-up.
Alex Bregman, 3B: $3,800- After a hot start, Alex has been fairly pedestrian. I like this as a “get right” spot against a mediocre starter and a largely subpar bullpen.
Alec Bohm, 3B: $3,200 – He doesn’t have the sexy homerun numbers. He gets overshadowed by Harper and J.T.’s star power (rightfully so), but all this dude does is mash baseballs. In his rookie campaign, his hard-hit rate was 46.8% and he doesn’t show any signs of stopping. He carries a 4-game hitting streak into this one and I expect it to be more of the same.
Carlos Correa, SS: $3,300 – I joked that it’s the Jose Altuve revenge tour, but it’s really Correa. Bust, overrated, and unlikable, all may be true but he’s hitting .325/.386/.625 with 3 homers already on this young season.
Dansby Swanson, SS: $2,500 – Really struggled to start the year but has an extra-base hit in 3 of his last 4 games. Going up against a suspect rookie could be the true breakout he needs to jumpstart his season
Adam Duvall, OF: $2,600- He’s hit 3 homers in his last 2 games. He hits them in bunches as we saw him hit multiple 3 home runs games in a span of 8 days last year.
Yordan Alvarez, OF: $3,500 – Thus continuing the Astros theme, not going to beat a dead horse but I will give you this piece of trivia. Yordan has the 4th most RBIs in MLB history in his first 92 games with 88. Two behind DiMaggio(90) and one ahead of Ted Williams(87). Might be a silly stat but that is damn good company if you ask me.
Brandon Lowe, OF: $2,900 – There has not been anything good to report about his season offensively. The knock on Brandon in the past has been strikeouts and his 30.9% K-rate this year supports that. Why would I pick him in the middle of a slump? The Rangers’ starter Kohei Arihara has only managed to strike out 2 batters across his 9 innings of work thus far. A pitch to contact guy might be all he needs to right the ship.
Joey Gallo, OF: $3,000 – I don’t expect him to garner much ownership. He’s going against a respect LHP on the road. Gallo is a large range of outcomes type player. Meaning he could hit 3 homers or strike out 5 times. Perfect one-off type guy with low ownership in GPPs.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
It wouldn’t be early season baseball without some bad weather. Thankfully we only have one game that may be affected. Currently, there is a 41% chance of rain at first pitch for the Orioles v. Mariners in Baltimore. There is an increased risk as the night goes on but caps out at 66%. Safe money stays away from this game. The bad pitching and hitter-friendly confines of Camden offers a high risk, high reward play since ownership will be nil. That’s only for the true gamblers though who don’t mind an L chasing the big score.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Padres at Pirates (Joe Musgrove v. Tyler Anderson) – O/U 8 runs scored, bet the over. Unless you live under a rock, you know Musgrove threw the first no-hitter of the season last time out. I am a Musgrove believer but pitchers do not fair well their next time out after a no-no. As a bonus, Tyler Anderson is a 31-year-old mediocre journeyman with a career 4.66 ERA.