Apparently, the league is looking into a number of balls from Trevor Bauer’s last start to see if a foreign substance was used by the Dodgers’ hurler. Are Bauer’s suspicious balls going to be an issue going forward? I think we’ll have to wait and find out. Does DirtyBallsGate (™) have any negative connotations heading into tonight’s matchup with the Rockies? It should not. FIRE. HIM. UP. For all we know, any number of pitchers have had baseballs taken from their outing and looked into. It would make sense that we’re only hearing about Bauer’s balls because of his status as the highest-paid and most tantalizing player in the game. Anyhow…
Welcome to the 2nd installment of FanDuel Tuesday DFS here on Razzball. We have a wide-open 10 game slate to sift through and find some stacks and/or value bats that fit together nicely with whichever pitcher we decide to land on.
There’s a ton of talent on the pitching side tonight, though they aren’t all in ideal situations. As much as I love Shane Bieber ($11,200), his price and matchup make it hard to justify over other options (though if you think I’m crazy, by all means, have at it). The White Sox aren’t a world-beating lineup, but they’re better than the Royals and Tigers and should be the first test of the season for Bieber. On the other side of this match-up, you have a much lower-priced Lucas Giolito ($9,800) who seems to have a better matchup on paper. However, in that ballpark, with the wind blowing out, we might be better off pivoting to what I believe are the 3 top options on tonight’s slate. Let’s get down to business.
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Starting Pitcher to Target
Trevor Bauer, SP: ($11,000) – Making his Dodger home debut and ready to show his suspicious balls are not the secret to his success, Bauer is my guy tonight. I absolutely love the Dodgers in every aspect of this matchup. This may be a chalky play, though there are plenty of arms on this slate to assure the ownership isn’t crazy high. Bauer is going to go deep, he’s going to have his adrenaline pumping, and he’s going to be strutting off the mound like Conor McGregor. He was no hitting the Rockies in Coors through 6 before his minor blowup back on April 2nd. I’m calling 45+ points but If you’re concerned about ownership, pivot to the next guy, or better yet, the 3rd guy on this list.
Dylan Bundy, SP: ($9,000) – Bundy has been a new man ever since joining the Angels. He’s facing a Royals lineup that strikes out a ton vs righties and if he can maneuver around those few solid bats, he should be able to go deep with high K upside and run support vs the opposition, Danny Duffy. Fire up Bundy at what looks to be a value at only $9,000.
Brandon Woodruff, SP: ($8,800) – If Bundy is a value, this is a steal. I certainly don’t understand the pricing here as he just showed he is more than capable of carving up a flailing Cubs’ offense. Woodruff has some of the best stuff in baseball and is opposing a team that seems to be watching film on how to strike out more. If I were pricing this slate, Woodruff would be $10,500, but I’m not and will gladly pivot here off Bauer to fit in bats from that Dodger lineup that’s going to mash vs Colorado.
- Starting Pitcher Dart Throw: I don’t have a good feeling about any dart throws tonight like I did last week with Freddy Peralta vs the Cubs. The K upside at the top today is too juicy to get cute. Differentiate on offense. If you like to get really cute, throw in a Kyle Gibson lineup (he looked awesome last time out) but be sure to have a Rays stack or two elsewhere to hedge. I just don’t think the upside is enough.
Catcher/First Base
Jose Abreu, C/1B: ($3,600) – He should be low owned and the wind will be blowing out to left-center at 8-10 mph. However, the main reason for this is the history behind it. Abreu locks in vs Bieber and has a career .350 average with 3 home runs vs the Biebs. Good leverage play if you have a lot of Bieber and want to get some contrarian builds in a few non-Bieber lineups.
Max Muncy, C/1B (2B): ($3,200) – Some guys are chalky and you just have to eat it. This price is too low to not get at least some shares of a guy with 2 home run upside hitting in the middle of the best offense in baseball vs a subpar starter and worse bullpen. Yes, Antonio Senzatela was solid last outing at Coors, but if you haven’t noticed, the Diamondbacks aren’t good.
Second Base
Zach McKinstry, 2B: ($3,000) & Gavin Lux, 2B: ($2,600) – One is the most recent guy the Dodgers seem to have struck gold with, the other is their prized prospect. It’s hard to say who I like more here. I think it might be Lux since everyone is in love with McKinstry after a week of production. Depending on their lineup spots, I might just go with whoever I can fit in or whoever is looking to be lower owned. Make one of these two guys part of a Dodgers stack that is going to go nuts Tuesday night.
Brandon Lowe, 2B: ($2,700) – Kyle Gibson looked awesome his last time out vs Toronto. I don’t think he’s that good. He’s also not as bad as his first blow up vs the Royals. My thought process here is that Lowe is one of those guys who could have that 2 homer, slate-winning performances at any time. If you build 10 lineups, throw him in 2 in order to assure you’re part of the party when he busts out of this early-season slump.
Third Base
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B (1B): ($3,700) – I’m not in love with this matchup, I respect Jameson Taillon. There’s just no way Vlad can’t be considered day in and day out. He hits the ball so damn hard and is so fun to watch. Just like last week, I’m going to keep rolling him out there knowing there’s a decent floor and a ceiling as high as anyone.
Justin Turner, 3B: ($3,600) – As you can tell, the Dodgers just stand out above the rest. I think a stack of any part of this lineup with one of the top 3 pitchers and some one-off or mini stacks is the winning recipe tonight. I know their ownership is going to be high but I often find that Turner is lower owned than the rest even though he hits 3rd. Fire him up with confidence.
Short Stop
Carlos Correa, SS: ($3,100) – The 26-year old that everyone apparently thinks is JAG (just a guy). Welp, Matthew Boyd has looked sharp his first two starts but he now has a legit test to see if it’s for real. The Astros mash Lefties and Correa is right in the thick of it. As of now, the Astros will be lower owned vs a reborn Matthew Boyd, but this could be that spot where Boyd gets touched up and the Astros get 4 innings of the Tigers’ pen that is primed to explode at any moment.
Willy Adames, SS: ($2,400) – An almost min-priced player with more pop than many give him credit for. I like Adames as part of a Rays stack that could be a great play if they can get to the Rangers bullpen by the 5th.
Outfield
Ronald Acuna Jr., OF: ($4,300) – This doesn’t need mentioning but just in case: Acuna is a freak and he is on fire. He can get to that 30 point upside any number of ways. The dude is the best bet to be the high-scoring player on a nightly basis.
Austin Meadows, OF: ($3,200) – I can’t get a read on the ownership for this matchup. All I know is Gibson is not the pitcher he looked to be last time out. Again, watching him was fun, he looked real sharp, but that was his absolute best stuff. I think the Rays lefties can get to him and I like Lowe / Meadows tonight.
Akil Baddoo, OF: ($2,800) – This guy burst onto the scene the first 10 days of the season and is an early-season darling so far. It’s an extremely small sample but he crushed it in spring and it has carried into the season. We don’t know what to expect from Odorizzi, who is making his season debut, but Baddoo seems to have a solid matchup at a really solid price.
Victor Robles, OF: ($2,600) & Kyle Schwarber, OF ($2,500) – These guys are low priced, low owned, and could be part of a sneaky Nationals stack that could force Flaherty to pitch to them and make things happen. Flaherty has a history of getting off to rough starts early in the year. On a day where it’s hard to find solid value bats, let’s take a shot on a guy (Robles) who is getting on base, can steal bases, and is leading off. And Schwarber, who is one of the beloved DFS bats that could double bop on any given day.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Welp, after a few days of rainouts and worries, we look to be in the clear tonight. Play your guys with confidence. There’s not much to talk about in terms of wind or temp. One that may be a factor is the wind blowing out to left-center for the Indians @ White Sox game. Though, there’s a small chance that’ll have much play with those two horses on the mound.
Doing Lines In Vegas
We’re 1-0 on Tuesdays after taking the over on last week’s Blue Jays @ Rangers 9 ½.
The line as of now in Vegas for tonight’s Rockies @ Dodgers game is 7 ½. I’m not sure it’s smart to bet the over based on one team going nuts, but I’m doing it. I think the Dodgers can cover this themselves and am taking the over.
Stacks & Fades
Favorite Stacks: Dodgers, Astros, Angels, Rays
Fades
Brewers stack (if no Yelich): However, some one-offs like Shaw or Bradley are good salary savers.
Marlins: not that you were planning to build many Miami stacks (Starling Marte is a good one-off), but Max Fried‘s velocity is not down and he’s still missing plenty of bats. He’s been stymied by the .565 BABIP through his first 2 starts. I think Fried gets back on track tonight.
Batter vs Pitcher
This is something I don’t put too much value in unless it’s hard to ignore.
Jose Abreu, 1B: ($3600) vs Shane Bieber – Abreu is 7 for 20 in his career vs Bieber with 3 HR.
Mike Trout, OF: ($4,400) vs Danny Duffy – Trout is a nice play any day. He’s 9 for 20 with 2 doubles and a HR.
Justin Upton, OF: ($2,700) vs Danny Duffy – J Up has definitely gotten the better of Duffy over the years. Upton has thrived vs. Duffy to the tune of 8 for 19 with 2 doubles and 3 HR. Are we liking the Angels stack yet?
