Welcome, duelers! [Slaps in you in the face with a glove]. First, I wanted to share with you a major discovery. If you’re a DFSer or a degenerate in general — me, I’m just a loveable panda — you probably know who Jonathan Bales is. If you don’t know, well, he’s a good gambler and DFS player. ENYWHEY. If you’re the kind of person who sold your soul to Amazon and have a Prime account, you can get Bales’ 2015 book on fantasy baseball DFS for free on Kindle. I’ll point out that Rudy’s DFS Bot automates a fair amount of what Bales asks players to do. However, I noticed a really under-utilized section of the Teamonator that not only gives you the Vegas Lines but the Razzball lines, and compiles which teams are cheapest on the slate and therefore the biggest value. I mean, super-slick and easy way to get your DFS picks ready. Best of all? You know what teams were in the top 10 selections yesterday? Cleveland and Pittsburgh. They scored like 21 runs combined yesterday. I mean, it’s nuts. Rudy’s so good at this stuff. So, let’s get some lineups made and see if we can’t get some money in your pocket.
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Chris Bassitt ($10,000) — Third most expensive pitcher on the whole-day slate. The first two? Framber is facing off against a White Sox team that leads the league in crushing left-handed pitching on the road, and Aaron Nola faces off against a Giants team that’s third-best in hitting righties at home. Bassitt though? Faces off against the Yankees, who are 5th worst in the league against righties at home and K nearly 28% of the time. Bassitt has had a bit of a career renaissance this year and has a K/9 of nearly 10 over the last month. The DFSBot has him for about 6 Ks today, and the props have him heavily favored for a 6+ strikeout game. Whether cash or GPP, I think Bassitt is your man today.
Patrick Sandoval ($7800) — Your discount pitching option today. The Tigers are the second-worst team in MLB in hitting lefties on the road, and Sandoval is favored for about 5 strikeouts today on a fairly weak pitching slate all things considered. Vegas is favoring the under on the Angels/Tigers game — heavily in the Angels favor — and it’s going to be a cool, calm, and beautiful game in California. The odds show that this is gonna be the kind of game that you sip a beer to and enjoy the sunset, and that’s the kind of pitching performance you want.
Rafael Devers ($4100) / J.D. Martinez ($4500) / Alex Verdugo ($3500) / Xander Bogaerts ($4200) / Christian Arroyo ($2600) / Bobby Dalbec ($2700)
- It shouldn’t be much of a surprise that the Red Sox are a favorite today. The wind is blowing towards the stands in Kaufman Stadium, it’s a bit of a low-pressure system stalled near Kansas City, and it’s going to be near 100 degrees come game time. Vegas has the game at 11 runs, and most of those runs will be going toward the Red Sox. Obvious stack with obvious upside.
Christian Yelich ($4300) / Avisail Garcia ($3800) / Willy Adames ($3200) / Daniel Vogelbach ($3500) / Kolten Wong ($3000)
- A much cheaper Brewers stack playing in Colorado against unexpected ace Austin Gomber. Martin, I know you’re reading and worried about this — I’m just playing the odds! Coors Field is always nuts and the Brewers sucked there the other night, so people might be off the team a bit. Truth is, the Brewers are 7th best in the league against lefties on the road. I mean, regression’s gonna happen in a positive way and the wind is pointed to right field in Coors, so let’s ride the wave. If you’re playing these guys in the main event (the full day slate), you might want to combine early/late lineups to increase your odds of a winner.
Starling Marte ($4300) / Jesus Aguilar ($2700) / Adam Duvall ($3000) / Jazz Chisholm ($3200) / Jesus Sanchez ($2100) / Jon Berti ($2500)
- Here’s the Razzball special, brought to you by Rudy! I’m using the Teamonator for this one, and it’s seeing the Marlins as an unexpected favorite over the Cubs. Miami’s not a great hitting team on the road versus righties, which will have a lot of people off of them. But it’s going to be 85 degrees in Wrigley with a wind blowing out to right field at 11MPH. The Teamonator was right about the ding-dong show that Cleveland / Pittsburgh ended up being yesterday; maybe today’s the day that Arrieta loses his mind to the young Marlins team. Berti is a particular steal for people searching for cheap, low-owned players. Get it? Steal! HAHAHA Give me my Pulitzer.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains:
Cardinals/Braves are a 60% chance of rain at game time, so don’t expect a replay of yesterday’s offensive outburst. Otherwise, it’s a hot one in the midwest. Check for the retractable roof in Arizona negating the wind effect of the Dodgers. Wind will be blowing towards home plate at 10MPH in Petco — likely a weak game for the hot-hitting Padres/Reds teams.
Doing Lines in Vegas:
Razzball contradicts the Vegas Odds on the Miami / Cubs game. The Marlins are +110 on the game in Vegas at the time of writing, but Razzball has them at -116. Big difference!
