You see a girl across the bar.
She’s gorgeous.
An angel.
Maybe.
It’s dark.
Tough to see real well.
But one thing you can say for sure is there’s a human sitting across the bar in this post-rona scenario.
You’re eager to move a little closer, maybe buy a couple drinks. And who knows? Might be the start of something long term.
You can feel the competition looming. Lotta hungry eyes in the house. Can’t sit around much longer. Have to move in before you’re certain.
What I’ve just described is the free agent pitching pool in most dynasty leagues. It’s also the general pitching landscape between spots 150 and 200–this week’s focus point. The situation can seem dire most nights, but people get picked up all the time, and some turn out to be great finds.
| Rank | Player | Age | Team |
| 1 | Gerrit Cole | 29 | NYY |
| 2 | Walker Buehler | 25 | LAD |
| 3 | Jack Flaherty | 24 | STL |
| 4 | Shane Bieber | 24 | CLE |
| 5 | Jacob deGrom | 31 | NYM |
| 6 | Shohei Ohtani | 25 | LAA |
| 7 | Mike Clevinger | 29 | CLE |
| 8 | Lucas Giolito | 25 | CHW |
| 9 | Luis Castillo | 27 | CIN |
| 10 | Blake Snell | 27 | TB |
| 11 | Tyler Glasnow | 26 | TB |
| 12 | Jesus Luzardo | 22 | OAK |
| 13 | Stephen Strasburg | 31 | WAS |
| 14 | Chris Paddack | 24 | SD |
| 15 | Mike Soroka | 22 | ATL |
| 16 | Julio Urias | 23 | LAD |
| 17 | MacKenzie Gore | 21 | SD |
| 18 | Clayton Kershaw | 32 | LAD |
| 19 | Chris Sale | 31 | BOS |
| 20 | Frankie Montas | 27 | OAK |
| 21 | Max Scherzer | 35 | WAS |
| 22 | Justin Verlander | 37 | HOU |
| 23 | Trevor Bauer | 29 | CIN |
| 24 | Nate Pearson | 23 | TOR |
| 25 | Brandon Woodruff | 27 | MIL |
| 26 | Aaron Nola | 26 | PHI |
| 27 | Luis Severino | 26 | NYY |
| 28 | Jose Berrios | 25 | MIN |
| 29 | Patrick Corbin | 30 | WAS |
| 30 | Zac Gallen | 24 | ARI |
| 31 | Yu Darvish | 33 | CHC |
| 32 | Noah Syndergaard | 27 | NYM |
| 33 | Tarik Skubal | 23 | DET |
| 34 | Sonny Gray | 30 | CIN |
| 35 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 27 | BOS |
| 36 | Charlie Morton | 36 | TB |
| 37 | A.J. Puk | 25 | OAK |
| 38 | Zack Greinke | 36 | HOU |
| 39 | Forrest Whitley | 22 | HOU |
| 40 | Dinelson Lamet | 27 | SD |
| 41 | Matt Manning | 22 | DET |
| 42 | Spencer Howard | 23 | PHI |
| 43 | Luis Patino | 20 | SD |
| 44 | Casey Mize | 23 | DET |
| 45 | Max Fried | 26 | ATL |
| 46 | Michael Kopech | 24 | CHW |
| 47 | Brailyn Marquez | 21 | CHC |
| 48 | Kyle Hendricks | 30 | CHC |
| 49 | Madison Bumgarner | 30 | ARI |
| 50 | Luke Weaver | 26 | ARI |
| 51 | Lance McCullers Jr. | 26 | HOU |
| 52 | Jameson Taillon | 28 | PIT |
| 53 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | 33 | TOR |
| 54 | James Paxton | 31 | NYY |
| 55 | Jose Urquidy | 25 | HOU |
| 56 | Asa Lacy | 20 | ?? |
| 57 | Brendan McKay | 24 | TB |
| 58 | German Marquez | 25 | COL |
| 59 | Kenta Maeda | 32 | MIN |
| 60 | Joe Musgrove | 27 | PIT |
| 61 | Zack Wheeler | 29 | PHI |
| 62 | Lance Lynn | 32 | TEX |
| 63 | Corey Kluber | 34 | TEX |
| 64 | Carlos Carrasco | 33 | CLE |
| 65 | Jon Gray | 28 | COL |
| 66 | George Kirby | 22 | SEA |
| 67 | Edward Cabrera | 22 | MIA |
| 68 | Emerson Hancock | 20 | ?? |
| 69 | Domingo German | 27 | NYY |
| 70 | Sean Manaea | 28 | OAK |
| 71 | Mike Foltynewicz | 28 | ATL |
| 72 | Mike Minor | 32 | TEX |
| 73 | Michael Pineda | 31 | MIN |
| 74 | Simeon Woods-Richardson | 19 | TOR |
| 75 | Carlos Martinez | 28 | STL |
| 76 | Jake Odorizzi | 30 | MIN |
| 77 | Josiah Gray | 22 | LAD |
| 78 | Dustin May | 22 | LAD |
| 79 | Robbie Ray | 28 | ARI |
| 80 | Hunter Greene | 20 | CIN |
| 81 | Nick Lodolo | 22 | CIN |
| 82 | Aaron Civale | 24 | CLE |
| 83 | Yonny Chirinos | 26 | TB |
| 84 | Matthew Boyd | 29 | DET |
| 85 | Clarke Schmidt | 24 | NYY |
| 86 | Sandy Alcantara | 24 | MIA |
| 87 | Sixto Sanchez | 21 | MIA |
| 88 | Masahiro Tanaka | 31 | NYY |
| 89 | Josh James | 27 | HOU |
| 90 | David Price | 34 | LAD |
| 91 | Caleb Smith | 27 | MIA |
| 92 | Blake Walston | 18 | ARI |
| 93 | Andrew Heaney | 28 | LAA |
| 94 | Logan Gilbert | 23 | SEA |
| 95 | Alek Manoah | 22 | TOR |
| 96 | Reid Detmers | 20 | ?? |
| 97 | Max Meyer | 21 | ?? |
| 98 | Daniel Lynch | 23 | KC |
| 99 | Josh Lindblom | 32 | MIL |
| 100 | Grayson Rodriguez | 20 | BAL |
| 101 | Alex Wood | 29 | LAD |
| 102 | Carlos Rodon | 27 | CHW |
| 103 | Alex Reyes | 25 | STL |
| 104 | Adrian Houser | 27 | MIL |
| 105 | Miles Mikolas | 31 | STL |
| 106 | Griffin Canning | 24 | LAA |
| 107 | Kyle Wright | 24 | ATL |
| 108 | Ryan Yarbrough | 28 | TB |
| 109 | Ian Anderson | 22 | ATL |
| 110 | Marcus Stroman | 29 | NYM |
| 111 | Brent Honeywell | 25 | TB |
| 112 | Seth Corry | 21 | SF |
| 113 | Kwang-Hyun Kim | 31 | STL |
| 114 | Luis Frias | 21 | ARI |
| 115 | Cole Wilcox | 20 | ?? |
| 116 | Zach Plesac | 25 | CLE |
| 117 | Anthony DeSclafani | 30 | CIN |
| 118 | Joey Lucchesi | 26 | SD |
| 119 | Joe Ryan | 23 | TB |
| 120 | Mitch Keller | 24 | PIT |
| 121 | Jordan Balazovic | 21 | MIN |
| 122 | Daniel Espino | 19 | CLE |
| 123 | Tahnaj Thomas | 20 | PIT |
| 124 | Garrett Crochet | 21 | ?? |
| 125 | John Means | 27 | BAL |
| 126 | Dylan Cease | 24 | CHW |
| 127 | Dylan Bundy | 27 | LAA |
| 128 | Chris Archer | 31 | PIT |
| 129 | Marco Gonzales | 28 | SEA |
| 130 | Jordan Montgomery | 27 | NYY |
| 131 | Freddy Peralta | 23 | MIL |
| 132 | Jordan Yamamoto | 24 | MIA |
| 133 | Taijuan Walker | 27 | SEA |
| 134 | Cade Cavali | 21 | ?? |
| 135 | Ethan Hankins | 19 | CLE |
| 136 | Ross Stripling | 30 | LAD |
| 137 | Matt Shoemaker | 33 | TOR |
| 138 | Jhoan Duran | 22 | MIN |
| 139 | Jackson Kowar | 23 | KC |
| 140 | Nathan Eovaldi | 30 | BOS |
| 141 | Luis Garcia | 23 | HOU |
| 142 | Corbin Burnes | 25 | MIL |
| 143 | Deivi Garcia | 20 | NYY |
| 144 | Jonathan Stiever | 23 | CHW |
| 145 | Ethan Small | 23 | MIL |
| 146 | Elieser Hernandez | 25 | MIA |
| 147 | Jonathan Loaisiga | 25 | NYY |
| 148 | Dallas Keuchel | 32 | CHW |
| 149 | Adam Kloffenstein | 19 | TOR |
| 150 | Kris Bubic | 22 | KC |
| 151 | Scott Moss | 25 | CLE |
| 152 | Jonathan Bowlan | 23 | KC |
| 153 | Cory Abbott | 24 | CHC |
| 154 | Reynaldo Lopez | 26 | CHW |
| 155 | Julio Teheran | 29 | LAA |
| 156 | Jordan Lyles | 29 | TEX |
| 157 | Pablo Lopez | 24 | MIA |
| 158 | Shun Yamaguchi | 32 | TOR |
| 159 | Jeff Samardzija | 35 | SF |
| 160 | Homer Bailey | 34 | MIN |
| 161 | Cole Hamels | 36 | ATL |
| 162 | Steven Matz | 28 | NYM |
| 163 | Daulton Jefferies | 24 | OAK |
| 164 | Kyle Gibson | 32 | TEX |
| 165 | Dakota Hudson | 25 | STL |
| 166 | Corbin Martin | 24 | ARI |
| 167 | Matthew Liberatore | 20 | STL |
| 168 | Brad Keller | 24 | KC |
| 169 | Shane Baz | 20 | TB |
| 170 | Shane McClanahan | 23 | TB |
| 171 | Miguel Yajure | 22 | NYY |
| 172 | Yusei Kikuchi | 28 | SEA |
| 173 | Trevor Williams | 28 | PIT |
| 174 | Luis Medina | 21 | NYY |
| 175 | Zach Davies | 27 | SD |
| 176 | Austin Voth | 27 | WAS |
| 177 | Johnny Cueto | 34 | SF |
| 178 | Brandon Williamson | 22 | SEA |
| 179 | Zack Thompson | 22 | STL |
| 180 | Quinn Priester | 19 | PIT |
| 181 | Daniel Ponce de Leon | 28 | STL |
| 182 | Robert Dominguez | 18 | NYM |
| 183 | Rick Porcello | 31 | NYM |
| 184 | Matthew Thompson | 19 | CHW |
| 185 | Merrill Kelly | 31 | ARI |
| 186 | Danny Duffy | 31 | KC |
| 187 | Brady Singer | 23 | KC |
| 188 | Brayan Bello | 20 | BOS |
| 189 | Cal Quantrill | 25 | SD |
| 190 | Chirs Bassitt | 31 | OAK |
| 191 | Spencer Turnbull | 27 | DET |
| 192 | Tony Gonsolin | 26 | LAD |
| 193 | Justus Sheffield | 24 | SEA |
| 194 | Vince Velasquez | 27 | PHI |
| 195 | Trevor Richards | 27 | TB |
| 196 | Chad Kuhl | 27 | PIT |
| 197 | Tyler Beede | 26 | SF |
| 198 | Anderson Espinoza | 22 | SD |
| 199 | Wade Miley | 33 | CIN |
| 200 | Tyler Anderson | 30 | SF |
Thanks for reading!
(I’m @theprospectitch on Twitter and reddit.)
There are a couple of guys in your 150-200 range that look ripe for the taking. Older guys that could continue to be solid.
With all that said, the one guy that stands out to me is 169. Kikuchi. I think we haven’t had a chance to see what he’s fully capable of. Plus 1 extra year on the American side will help him be more acclimatized. I think he could end up being the biggest gainer from this group of 50.
BTW, good intro. Reminded me of something Frank Miller would write.
Thanks again, Itch.
Thanks, Jolt in Flow!!
I’m Kooch-curious, too. He so utterly failed the eye test last year that I kinda want to see it in the real games first, but as the intro (thx btw!) suggests, we don’t really have time to see it first. Already getting late by the time we see it working in the real games.
Gonsolin looks really low to me today. Punishing him for his setting too much, perhaps.
The international pitchers used to hit the ground running then struggle as the league adjusted, but pitchers say the balls they use are very different now, so perhaps that sequence is less predictable.
Good tip! Much appreciated for the insight.
Thanks Itch.
Aggressive w the Woodruff ranking? I like him and didn’t protect him in my mixed keeper league. Kept Cole and Clevinger. IP/ health and his home stadium were my reasons for not protecting him and taking a bat over him. Did like love the Tarik Skuball ranking. Excited to see what he has.
Pear and stay safe!
Thanks Powdered Toast Man!
Hope you and yours stay safe, too!
Skubal v MLB bats is probably the baseball thing I’m most excited to see.
I do feel pretty aggro on Woodruff, tho I’d definitely keep who you did instead.
4.77 K/BB in age 26 season is pretty loud. 29% K and 6% BB.
Solid front office. Good team. Derek Johnson on speed-dial. Tough ballpark, so he’ll have to be good, but the K-floor is climbing as the walks fall, and we gotta feel good about that even if he doesn’t dominate quite as thoroughly in 2020. If he goes just a hair the other direction: bumps his K-rate above 30, drops the walks under 5, churns out 180 innings, this ranking looks low.
Powdered Toast Man, you sound delicious
Am I missing DL Hall?
Nah I spaced on him. Not sure where I’ll slide him in off the top of my head. I’ll dig in after the daughter’s bed time. I’m down on him comparatively bc his command is spotty at best, and it can be tough for high profile high school arms to bring return on dynasty investments, especially in the AL East, but he’s definitely been a K monster and is in a system we should all be watching.
While 200 players being ranked is a crapshoot at best and every player could be argued for a different spot on the list, the one which stands out as being considerable lower than where I would have placed them is Brady Singer at 187. With a an almost 4 to 1 SO/BB ratio, a WHIP under 1.2 and a draft position which would indicate a high ceiling, he would seem more likely placed before his teammate Lynch and certainly before Bubic who throws everything in slow motion. Bubic looks great against single A because he throws all off-speed stuff that these youngster haven’t figured out yet.
Singer jumps out at me today as well.
I’ve always been low on him compared to hype but need to bridge the gap a bit I think.
Actually feel down on Bubic too compared to the sound and fury, so this is gonna move. Good calls!
H2H
Scherzer and Darvish
Or
Flaherty and Clevinger
Who do you like for this year? Which keeper for next?
I’m taking Flaherty Clev for both
Itch!!!
Great stuff here. I think you make a very strong point that there’s always some waiver wire gold to be found. Guys between 150-200 can be had for next to nothing but can be huge assets toward a title run.
Two years ago, I grabbed Ryu off the waiver wire after he pulled his groin and his owner cut him. Last year I grabbed Lance Lynn off the wire around the middle of May after a couple of good starts. Both those guys are now staples on my team to go along with Flaherty, Urias and Castillo.
I’m not saying it’s easy to find those guys. I’am saying those guys are out there and somebody between 150-200 is going to turn in a top 50 season. I see a couple on this list between 150-200 that I like, too. They’ll get a test run from me if I can make it work.
As always, good stuff!
Thanks, Harley!!
Ryu and Lynn are perfect examples!
And like you said, it’s not easy, but it is kind of a fantasy constant—the movement from bottom barrel to top 50 among pitchers.
Even if you don’t find a monster like Ryu or Woodruff, you might find a few weeks worth of great stats from a Lyles an Odorizzi.
I tend to fade pitching like mad in dynasty because I think time and hustle are such great ways to build a staff.
My priciest pitcher in my last startup auction (winter of 2017-18) was $9 (Walker Buehler). $300 budget.
Yeah, I definitely tend to fade pitching in keeper and dynasty leagues and just build a staff over time there. There’s just so much volatility from one year to the next compared to what hitters typically do.
I love the Woodruff pick. Last year I grabbed him late round in a keeper league and he worked out wonderfully. Odorizzi was another good one, although I wasn’t in on him.
Just curious, of the 150-200 starters, what two or three stand out to you as guys that might make that leap back into the top 50?
As always, good work and thanks!
P.S., I love how you’re so high on Kwang Hyun Kim.
Most people don’t know about him and he’d typically be one of those 150-200 SP guys. But you’re already on board just like me. You’ve been paying attention, clearly, because dude has some seriously nasty stuff. Cardinals got a steal. I’ve grabbed him in every league I’m in except one.
Just finished building today’s article around this question of which I’m buying . . . thanks much for the excellent idea!!!
Only now I’m thinking I forgot to mention Kim . . . haha . . . ah well can’t talk about everyone but yeah I totally agree–his stuff was better than advertised, and that’s saying something.
I think a lot about off-speed command and wonder if it’s perhaps the thing we’re worst at valuing as a pitching/fantasy/prospect community. We still love that big velo even though we know spin and command the frequency of off-speed are more important than just about anything these days. Certainly as important as raw velo.
Off-speed command and off-speed frequency are so directly linked . . . I think future scouting should have find a way to handle this.
Hell maybe the proprietary information clubs have is already doing this.
Maybe they’re getting command grades for each pitch. Video scouting and trackman would seem to encourage this. Very different to evaluate off-speed command in person from behind home plate or just off to the open-close side. So many things to watch in a split second.
Hey Itch,
Over the last couple of months, you work has been amazing. I have been relying on your prospect rankings a lot. We will see if it pays out as I snag Hedbert, Heriberto and Matos.
Anyhow, do you plan on doing rankings for relievers ? Loved your top 20 reliefs pitchers article.
Also, what do you think of Austin Adams ? The projections are really good and the Seattle bullpen is a mess.
Thanks !
Can’t thank you enough for the kind words, dill!
And I’m extremely happy you remember my relief prospect article!!!! That’s where I’m headed next in the series!!!
Great call on Adams! (sorry for all the exclamation points . . . ) Torn ACL and blood clot had him in extremely scary territory this draft season, and his timetable pointed to June at best.
Flash forward a few months and–assuming he can find health and form–he’s in pole position to win that job sooner than later and has shown the strikeout ability to be an incredibly value for fantasy.
Anyway thanks again! (see you around Heriberto island. Population boom seems imminent, even if it’s now delayed a rona-year for all three of these low-minors monsters.)
so michael fulmer doesn’t crack the top 200? he was pretty consistent pre-surgery, albeit unspectacular. but on track to be ready if the season starts in jul and still relatively young
You’re right. I need to make some kind of decision on him and get him on here.