“Crisco, Bardol, Vagisil: any one of em will give you another two to three inches drop off your curveball.”
This immortal moment comes courtesy of Eddie Harris in the transcendent classic, Major League.
In this exchange with young fireballer Rick Vaughn, Harris articulates the typical path for an aging pitcher.
“Haven’t got an arm like yours. Gotta put anything on it I can find.”
Wily oldsters pick up tricks like Robert Kraft to help themselves keep up in a young man’s game, and they seem to be keeping (and/or setting) the pace better than ever. Blending the fire of youth with the wisdom of experience is no small task, but we’ll try to do just that here today, synthesizing short and long term value to build rankings prescient enough to help any dynasty leaguer build his own double three-peat.
So throw me a line if you’re seeing an angle I’m not. This project is on-going and stretches all the way back to early March when I met some oldster moving plutonium out of the trunk of his DeLorian.
Rank | Player | Age | Team |
1 | Gerrit Cole | 29 | NYY |
2 | Walker Buehler | 25 | LAD |
3 | Jack Flaherty | 24 | STL |
4 | Shane Bieber | 24 | CLE |
5 | Jacob deGrom | 31 | NYM |
6 | Shohei Ohtani | 25 | LAA |
7 | Mike Clevinger | 29 | CLE |
8 | Lucas Giolito | 25 | CHW |
9 | Luis Castillo | 27 | CIN |
10 | Blake Snell | 27 | TB |
11 | Tyler Glasnow | 26 | TB |
12 | Jesus Luzardo | 22 | OAK |
13 | Stephen Strasburg | 31 | WAS |
14 | Chris Paddack | 24 | SD |
15 | Mike Soroka | 22 | ATL |
16 | Julio Urias | 23 | LAD |
17 | MacKenzie Gore | 21 | SD |
18 | Clayton Kershaw | 32 | LAD |
19 | Chris Sale | 31 | BOS |
20 | Frankie Montas | 27 | OAK |
21 | Max Scherzer | 35 | WAS |
22 | Justin Verlander | 37 | HOU |
23 | Trevor Bauer | 29 | CIN |
24 | Nate Pearson | 23 | TOR |
25 | Brandon Woodruff | 27 | MIL |
26 | Aaron Nola | 26 | PHI |
27 | Jose Berrios | 25 | MIN |
28 | Patrick Corbin | 30 | WAS |
29 | Zac Gallen | 24 | ARI |
30 | Yu Darvish | 33 | CHC |
31 | Noah Syndergaard | 27 | NYM |
32 | Tarik Skubal | 23 | DET |
33 | Sonny Gray | 30 | CIN |
34 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 27 | BOS |
35 | Charlie Morton | 36 | TB |
36 | A.J. Puk | 25 | OAK |
37 | Zack Greinke | 36 | HOU |
38 | Forrest Whitley | 22 | HOU |
39 | Dinelson Lamet | 27 | SD |
40 | Matt Manning | 22 | DET |
41 | Spencer Howard | 23 | PHI |
42 | Casey Mize | 23 | DET |
43 | Max Fried | 26 | ATL |
44 | Luis Patino | 20 | SD |
45 | Michael Kopech | 24 | CHW |
46 | Brailyn Marquez | 21 | CHC |
47 | Asa Lacy | 20 | ?? |
48 | Kyle Hendricks | 30 | CHC |
49 | Madison Bumgarner | 30 | ARI |
50 | Luke Weaver | 26 | ARI |
51 | Lance McCullers Jr. | 26 | HOU |
52 | Jameson Taillon | 28 | PIT |
53 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | 33 | TOR |
54 | James Paxton | 31 | NYY |
55 | Jose Urquidy | 25 | HOU |
56 | Brendan McKay | 24 | TB |
57 | German Marquez | 25 | COL |
58 | Kenta Maeda | 32 | MIN |
59 | Joe Musgrove | 27 | PIT |
60 | Zack Wheeler | 29 | PHI |
61 | Lance Lynn | 32 | TEX |
62 | Corey Kluber | 34 | TEX |
63 | Carlos Carrasco | 33 | CLE |
64 | Jon Gray | 28 | COL |
65 | George Kirby | 22 | SEA |
66 | Edward Cabrera | 22 | MIA |
67 | Emerson Hancock | 20 | ?? |
68 | Domingo German | 27 | NYY |
69 | Sean Manaea | 28 | OAK |
70 | Mike Foltynewicz | 28 | ATL |
71 | Mike Minor | 32 | TEX |
72 | Michael Pineda | 31 | MIN |
73 | Simeon Woods-Richardson | 19 | TOR |
74 | Carlos Martinez | 28 | STL |
75 | Jake Odorizzi | 30 | MIN |
76 | Josiah Gray | 22 | LAD |
77 | Dustin May | 22 | LAD |
78 | Robbie Ray | 28 | ARI |
79 | Hunter Greene | 20 | CIN |
80 | Nick Lodolo | 22 | CIN |
81 | Aaron Civale | 24 | CLE |
82 | Yonny Chirinos | 26 | TB |
83 | Matthew Boyd | 29 | DET |
84 | Clarke Schmidt | 24 | NYY |
85 | Sandy Alcantara | 24 | MIA |
86 | Sixto Sanchez | 21 | MIA |
87 | Masahiro Tanaka | 31 | NYY |
88 | Josh James | 27 | HOU |
89 | David Price | 34 | LAD |
90 | Caleb Smith | 27 | MIA |
91 | Blake Walston | 18 | ARI |
92 | Andrew Heaney | 28 | LAA |
93 | Logan Gilbert | 23 | SEA |
94 | Alek Manoah | 22 | TOR |
95 | Reid Detmers | 20 | ?? |
96 | Max Meyer | 21 | ?? |
97 | Daniel Lynch | 23 | KC |
98 | Josh Lindblom | 32 | MIL |
99 | Grayson Rodriguez | 20 | BAL |
100 | Alex Wood | 29 | LAD |
Thanks for reading!
Stay safe out there!
Happy Mother’s Day!
I think you missed Soroka
Got him 15th but I totally get how easy it is to glance past a single name on a list like this.
Shocked to see Mitch Keller missing. I get he had some struggles last season, but plenty young and at least as highly regarded of a prospect as many of the minor league level youngsters that made the cut. Has his stock really dropped below some of these undrafted long shots or his teammate Taillon coming off a 2nd TJ?!
I came here to make this same comment. Keller seems like a sure top 100 type to me. I’m cool with people forgetting about him if it means I get him for next to nothing, though.
What a great way to start mother’s day. A read on baseball. Happy mothers day to the moms of all readers. Make sure you wish her a happy mothers day if you’re lucky enough to have her around.
A 2-parter question for you. Stroman’s not on the list; what general numeric vicinity would you rank him if you had to?
Further, based on SW-R placing at 73, is it safe to say you feel the Jays are on the better end of the Stroman deal?
Thanks for putting this together, Itch.
Thanks, Jolt!
And well said. Send the moms all the love you can today!!
I do think the Jays did extremely well.
Stroman is a high-WHIP, low-K guy who might have a National League bounce. I had him higher early in the process and could see myself regretting this depending where he lands in FA.
He’s currently at 107, but that’s still under construction.
Itch!!!! Great stuff.
As a Cardinals fan, love Flaherty at #3!! As a dynasty player, love Julio Urias at #16. I believe in this kid and it’s good to see that belief reaffirmed in rankings like this.
One question, in 5 sentences or less, tell me why you believe Julio Urias will be a top 16 pitcher next season. I’d love to hear your thoughts!!
Great job Itch, and happy Mother’s Day to your wife and mom!
Thanks Harley!!!!
Happy Mother’s Day to you and yours !!
Urias repeats his delivery incredibly well, which gives him an inside lane on plus plus command of his elite repertoire. The Dodgers are a factory for pitching value. His stuff is even better now than when he was the best pitching prospect in the game.
Three sentences do it?
Good stuff!
Didn’t really know about his ability to repeat his delivery so well. Definitely knew about the elite repertoire! I agree I think his stuff now is better than it’s ever been. I honestly expect a breakout this season, although limited by appearances and innings.
Thanks for the analysis! That works for me. Looking forward to your next piece!
Does German Marquez move up on the list if he’s traded from Colorado?
Definitely.
I’m targetting Jon Gray in all my leagues because his departure is nigh, and I want to see what a truly gifted pitcher like him–arguably the best who’s ever come down from the mountain–can do in a more neutral and consistent environment.
in a k/9er dynasty, how would you rank Alcantara, Caleb Smith, Heaney? thanks!
Heaney, Smith, Alcantara
Itch, this series you’re running is fantastic. You’ve got a great voice and a fresh perspective. Thank you.
I’m in early rebuild stages of a 20 team roto league. I’m new in the league and playing some catch-up. My goal is to have a team ready to contend by 2023.
My rotation is: Flaherty, Woodruff, Skubal, James, Gilbert, G. Rodriguez, Honeywell, SWR, Graterol.
You seem down on most of my guys. My plan was to hold and see over the next two years, with a goal of six strong SP by 2023 or so. What would you do with these guys if the team was yours? Most of your top 100 are owned.
Thanks for the kind words, Philip!
Kind of a crazy week with lots of long, frustrating zoom meetings, so awesome timing! Very good to hear!
I am a bit low on G-Rod relative to the field, but in general I love your pitching. I think Graterol is the near-future closer in Los Angeles, and you’ve got 3 of my top 32, if my top-of-mind memory is accurate. That’s good work in a dynasty. I think I’d hold all your arms, especially the top three. If someone makes great offers for the others, I’m listening.
my Jordyn Adams($0), and Lodolo ($0) for Wiill Smith (catcher $10). dynasty 16 man 6×6.
or
my jordyn Adams and Munoz for Brusdar Graterol
thanks!
I’d do the Will Smith deal for sure.
I could go be convinced to either way on the Graterol trade, but I’m leaning hold.
12 team ottoneu league. Would you trade a $10 Byron Buxton in a deal for a $7 Sean Murphy?
I’d hold Buxton.
Didn’t see deivi garcia on your list. Not a believer in him being a sp?
I dunno, I think he could do it if he got a chance to adjust and adjust back, but it can be difficult to get that opportunity in New York, and I think Schmidt has passed him, where I think he was already behind Monty and Domingo German.
The Yankees love dominant relief arms.
Yajure is coming fast, and I think he’s a starter.
Just a lot of things pointing to an early career in relief.
Fulmer? At his age and with his stuff, can easily be top 50 if healthy
I wouldn’t rule it out but would need to see something.
Saw this just now in the recon:
RotoWire News: Tigers pitching coach Rick Anderson said Tuesday that there’s “no chance” Fulmer (elbow) will be cleared to face hitters soon, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports. “I mean, you never say never, but I don’t see it,” Anderson said. “He might be ready to see hitters, but I believe when we start our second spring training, whenever that will be, that would be the time to see Michael face hitters.” (5/5/2020)
Injury: Elbow, 60-Day IL
Anyway, certainly a good name to track and maybe add if you’ve got the space and the price is Bob.
Great job.
Since you are taking some input I wonder why deGrom is not #2. He has increased his 4 seamer and slider velo for three straight years. He is still at his prime and looks to be in the Scherzer/Verlander mode of doing this Superman thing way longer then you should. He and Cole are 1a and 1b.
Hi, KrazyIvan!
Sorry I missed this.
Had that same thought throughout much of the process, but he’s a little older than I thought.
deGrom is just a few days from being 32, so he’ll be 33 in 2021.
Sorry again, I know I don’t need to explain how aging works. Just been in soooo many endless meetings of late I’m forgetting how to communicate.
Kinda figure if you can get 90 percent of deGrom but will have him for almost a decade, that’s tough to weigh.
Especially with a guy like Flaherty who became a monster late in 2019.
Did Ian Anderson get any consideration? Love this kid and thought he’d be here.
Great job Itch
Thanks Smitty!
Sorry for the late reply.
I did think about him in the back of the 100, but for me he’s closer to the solid pack of prospect arms than the elite top-end group.
20 team keep 6-9 with QS/holds/XBH/OPS added roto. short starting rosters, 1400 innings max (that was set to 162, it’ll be commensurately down of course)
C kraken (K)
1B E5
2B wong
SS treat urner (K)
3B vlad (K)
OF (3) alvarez (K), gallo (K), h.dozier (1B/3B)
util (1) puig
BN: profar (2B/OF)
NA (2):puig (here till signed), vaughn (will be a keeper next year)
SP (probably want 7 of these in season): glasnow (K), luzardo (K), lynn, cueto, gibson
RP (max 5): giles, pressly, hudson, duffey
so i got 1 more RP to go, 2 more SP to go. the level of SP out there has weakened such to think i might want to go a prospect SP with this year value. biggest names left are: d.garcia, patino, i.anderson, k.wright (pearson/howard/mize/manning/skubal/gore/whitley/mckay either drafted or kept already). can stash one of these in NA slot, either BN puig till he’s signed, worst case scenario stick puig in NA slot, drop this prospect pitcher. will still likely get at least one of pab lop/gausman and the like with other pick and off WW’ers. which of those’ll you think will have the most this year value. i doubt i end up keeping of those, but i guess if kraken completely sucks i could keep one over him.
see above you’re pretty sure deivi is bullpen this year. this make k.wright the most likely to get useful this year innings of that group?
Yeah, I could see that on Wright
Oops, I’m in the wrong post, aren’t I?