With the turning of the page to September comes the rookie nookie of September call-ups, but it also brings the doom of inning limits. My guess (hope/wish) is, Julio Urias will end up with one more start before he heads to the ‘pen, but this could be his final go around. I’ve started Julio more times then I care to recall this year and gotten 4 IP, 5 ER and a severe case of WHIPlash. That 10 K/9 is so delicious though, I keep coming back for more; I’m a glutton for punishment and Ks. Julio’s come around lately though, only giving up 2 ER in his last 3 starts. He’s even pitched enough innings in each of those starts to earn a win. He’s been the king of K-put this year (shameless, I know). If it’s one thing the Padres know how to do, it’s strikeout. They are currently second in the majors in strikeouts and that makes them a prime DFS target. Syndergaard might be a better bet for a win and Price might be a better bet to go more innings, but I think Julio has the biggest upside of the bunch and comes in at ~$2,000 cheaper. That’s the difference between a struggling Miguel Sano in your lineup or a hot-fiyah Yasmany Tomas in Coors. Your call my friends. Now, (in my best Paul Harvey voice) for the rest of the picks:
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Danny Duffy, SP: $9,100 – Thanks to a shellacking at the hands of the Sawx, Duffy gets a price knock. I love this situation and can’t wait to exploit it. It was only two starts ago that Danny boy was priced at $12,700 against this very same Tigers team…on the road no less! Now, he’s back at the friendly Kauf for another shot at them. Last time out yielded 26.3 DK points. I’d take that any night and especially at a discount.
Jameson Taillon, SP: $8,400 – Jameson’s last turn out didn’t end so well. That match-up was against the very same Brewers he’s facing tonight, the difference tonight is, he’ll be facing them at home. PNC Park is down right cavernous compared to Miller Park. The Brew Crew, as mentioned many times this season, leads the majors in strikeouts. Jameson and Julio could really rack up some points tonight vs. these two squads.
Jeremy Hellickson, SP: $4,500 – Talk about a fall from grace. It was only a few weeks ago that Hellickson was a whopping $9,300 as he traveled to San Diego to face the Padres. Apparently it only takes one bad outing against the Mets to get your price slashed by more than half. No matter, on a night full of juicy Coors options, I will gladly take a $4.5K starter facing the team with the league’s second worst team OPS.
Nick Hundley, C: $3,700 – I’ll take hot catchers in Coors at a discount for $3,700 Alex. See also: Tom Murphy at $3,000 if he happens to get the call before game time. Murphy is red hot at Triple-A and presents and even deeper discount. Did I mention both guys have the platoon advantage on the lefty Robbie Ray? Well, there, no I did.
Chris Davis, 1B: $4,500 – There’s not much like a good Chris Davis hot streak, and he’s been ripping the ball lately. He’s at home tonight in the hitter friendly Camden Yards and faces Chad Green. Davis has exactly 2 hits off Green already and both have left the yard.
Mark Reynolds, 1B: $3,600 – I honestly thought Reynolds would be done for the season, but apparently he has Craig Kimbrel’s healing ability and came back in record time. Will his hand affect him? Perhaps. But, if he’s Coors powered and in the lineup tonight, I think he’s a fine risk/reward play.
Matt Carpenter, 2B/3B: $4,500 – I’ve got a bit more BvP data in this post than usual. There’s no particular reason for that, other than keeping you informed. That, and I find multi-homer games against a particular guy hard to ignore. Thus, Matt Carpenter who is 5/9 with 2 HRs vs. DeSclafani. I’m most likely passing him up for the sex man child below though.
Yoan Moncada, 2B: $2,700 – YOAN!! I’m giddy with excitement over Yoan’s call up. I got to watch him in Double A earlier this season, along with Benintendi, and have been excited to see the two in the majors ever since. This is another classic case of a call-up not being priced appropriately and you should get while the gettin’s good! It doesn’t seem like the Sawx are going to start Yoan’s clock for him to sit on the bench. I give it a week before he’s the everyday third baseman and he won’t be priced under $3K again.
Hernan Perez, 3B/OF: $4,100 – I don’t typically recommend hitter facing pitchers I suggest starting, but boy, it looks like Hernan really has Taillon’s number. In just 7 ABs Hernan has 5 hits, 3 of which are HRs.
Justin Turner, 3B: $4,000 – If you are playing Taillon, then Justin Turner is a nice pivot. He’s at home facing Clayton Richard, he of the 1.62 WHIP. Turner has cooled his jets a bit lately, but Richards could certainly help get him hot again.
Matt Duffy, 3B/SS: $3,100 – Any chance to jump on the Liriano dumpster fire is good with me. I’m not buying his recent decent games and am instead buying the 3.1 IP, 7 ER version of Liriano we all know and love. I’ll take my chances with a good contact hitter vs. a 1.59 WHIP.
A.J. Pollock, OF: $4,000 – I don’t label many guys as “must plays”, but Pollock tonight is about as good as it gets. $4,000, in Coors and coming in hot. I see no negatives. Just watch that Arizona doesn’t do something funky with his playing time. They mentioned him starting 3 out of 4 games when he was activated, so naturally he’s started 5 straight…uhhhh huh.
Trea Turner, 2B/OF: $3,900 – Treat Urner isn’t scared off no Syndergaards. This will most likely be a contrarian play, and I’m fine with that. Those scared off by Noah, clearly haven’t seen THIS. That handy table shows SB success rate against starting pitchers and would you look at whose name tops the list. With SBs worth the same points as a double on DK, Turner could have a big night.
Miguel Sano, 3B/OF: $3,200 – Sometimes you have to be ahead of the curve. That means taking a guy that’s struggling, even though he won’t be popular, and hoping this is the turning point. Rodon has been great of late, but can implode with the best of ‘em. If you need a cheap option to fill out a GPP roster, you might as well go with a guy that can get one or two out in a hurry.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Don’t let Mother Nature hear us talking, but we might be back to that boring, dry weather pattern we enjoyed during June. Shhh, here she comes!
Doing Lines In Vegas
Jonny Lester and the Cubbies check in as the night’s biggest favorites (-220) vs. Albert Suarez and the Giants. However, Urias and Taillon are right there with them at -200. Good news for my favorite 1-2 of the night. Also of note, Danny Duffy and the Royals are -170 favorites and Jeremy Hellickson and the Phils are -144 favorites vs. the Braves. All good vibes from Vegas there. The lowest run total of the night is 7.5 runs and is featured in 3 games; the Nats (Cole) at Mets (Syndergaard), Padres (Richards) at Dodgers (Urias) and Sawx (Price) at A’s (Triggs). The highest run total, of course, comes from Coors (11.5 runs). The highest non-Coors run total is the Astros (Fister) at the Rangers (Griffin), which is 9.5.