I know, I know.  You’re saying to yourself, ‘how can the guy with a 6.49 ERA not be free?’  It’s true, there’s nothing glowing about Adam Morgan‘s season long stat line.  His HR/FB rate is 2.05.  Yes, teams are averaging 2 HRs per game off him.  He also has a pedestrian K rate sitting at 7.69.  So when does the Morgan Freeman narrative kick in to tell me all the good things you want to hear?  Well, there may just not be one.  I’m leading with Morgan because methinks he’s a good to great tourney play for today and there’s more upside than he’s being given credit for at $5,500.  Admittedly, the Twins team has heated up a bit of late but their season stat line still shows an exploitable offense against left handed pitching.  Against southpaws on the year, the Twinkies hold a 24.5% K rate which is good for fourth worst in the MLB.  Follow that up with a lowly 86 wRC+ and there’s reason to believe Morgan can return on value down here in the sub-6K territory.  Of course, do realize this is tourney only and John Doe could easily gain the upper hand.  Not the Morgan quote you were wanting?  Well then enjoy.  But it’s time to get busy livin’, or else we’re gettin’ busy dying.  Here’s my he’s right you know hot taeks for this Wednesday DK slate…

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Cole Hamels, SP: $10,400 – Note one, I’m really only focused on the evening slate.  Note two, the revenge of the Nicholas Sparks book, the options be slim.  Trevor Bauer I get given the opponent and because he’s been pitching well overall of late, but it just feels like a trap.  I’m fine with him in tourneys.  Shark just feels like you’re chasing his last start, although the Pirates have scuffled of late and for that reason, I’m ok with him in both formats.  Hamels, will be my main SP1 squeeze this Wednesday against a team that has been near the bottom all year and has played poorly over their last 14 on offense, according to all those stats out there.  Maybe last night was a sign of them turning it around but I think Cole can hold them off for one more night, Phil Collins.

Julio Urias, SP: $6,900 – Since his first start with four walks, Urias hasn’t thrown more than one BB in his last four starts while averaging a 12.1 K/9.  Why aren’t we talking about him more?  Because he’s not even averaging five innings per start over that stretch.  The baby gloves are on but if you’re looking for K upside, look no further than Julio.  Just be warned, he’ll have a hard time looking you straight in the eye back.

Robinson Chirinos, C: $2,900 – The obvious choice is obvious: Buster Posey.  The not so obvious choice?  The Rangers have been slow to go back fully to Chirinos since his return from the DL so this is a ‘watch the lineup’ call here.  Straily is a flyball pitcher and Chirinos is a flyball hitter.  I like my odds of some Robinson bombage tonight.

Chris Davis, 1B: $5,100 – No, he’s not on fire and yes he’s overpriced.  Perfect for a GPP play.  Erik Johnson and his flyball tendencies likely won’t play too well in Camden.  An Orioles stack works for me.  Consider Matt Weiters and Jonathan Schoop at the very least.  If you’re hating the Davis pick, you can always roll with Pedro Alvarez at $3,700 after a two homer night…just like everyone else.

Jose Abreu, 1B: $4,600 – You shouldn’t have to struggle today to fill your roster since you’re not paying up majorly anywhere.  Treat 1B like a luxury spot and enjoy some of the hot streak that Jose Abreu is selling.

Ryan Schimpf, 2B/3B: $2,200 – So the other side of this pitching duel in Baltimore should be Ubaldo Jimenez.  Ubaldo hasn’t pitched well since leaving Colorado which doesn’t make any sense but no matter: I see a lovely punt play at hand.  Of course, you taking Jonathan Schoop wouldn’t make me mad.

Kyle Seager, 3B: $3,900 – Now has HRs in back to back games, so maybe he’s feeling it?  Not THAT.  That’s inappropriate.  I mean that ethereal ‘it’ that everyone talks about players having.  The sports ‘it’ is the equivalent of the ubiquitous love song ‘you’.  Anyhoo!  Seager…so hot right now…Seager…

Corey Seager, SS: $3,900 – No you read it correctly.  I am suggesting a Seager stack.  Weird they’re both 3.9K today.  If I were a numerologist, I’d tell you my stack was #blest, but I’m not crazy so I’ll just say Joe Ross against lefties can get dicey fast and Corey can send one out fast.  I’d suggest a lefty Dodgers stack but that would require their offense to be good and it’s not so I won’t.  FIN.

J.J. Hardy, SS: $3,100 – A little further down the SS hole and you can get another bat to slot against Erik Johnson.  If you can’t tell, I’m gonna have plenty of Orioles and Padres bats today, fam.

Odubel Herrera, OF: $4,100 – The price might be a smidge high, but any time a team gets to face the Twinkies, I get a little bit excited.  Not Lonely Island excited, but still…pretty elated.  Herrera is the rare thing in baseball this year: a good Philly hitter.  Relish it.

Shin-Soo Choo, OF: $3,500 – Lead off hitters at this price in a good spot are nice finds.  Cherish them like the unicorns that they are.  Even when they’re old and potentially washed up Unicorns.

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

If you’re playing the early tilt, weather conditions for the CHCvsSTL game looks uninviting, especially in the later half of the game.  The looming game late is MINvsPHI with plenty of rain and thunder set to pop mid-game.  It’s an interleague game so it’d be hard to find a make up date so methinks they’ll find a way to play through it, but I expect at least a delay.  Meanwhile, DETvsSEA and CLEvsTB looks a bit worrisome with 50% chance of rain and thunderstorms expected either late or mid game.  PITvsSF has a small chance for thunderstorms late as well so just be aware.  As always, check back before lock, especially with your favorite go to twitter weather forecaster.

Doing Lines In Vegas

Of course on a day where Jake Arrieta is pitching, he’s the king of the pitching crop as he sits heavy across all boards.  Sorry, my main go to site was down today so I’m gonna change up the scene a bit and use the Razzball Teamonator.  Funnily, it doesn’t have Arrieta as tops of the pops and has Cole Hamels and company leading the way at -203.  Rudy Gamble, you rebel, you.  Meanwhile, it thinks the Padres will go full Whale’s Vagina today and get torn up by Ubaldo Jimenez as he gets a -194 treatment.  Whew, that is a hot take…and also an interesting tourney call.  Meanwhile, it should come as no surprise that BALvsSD has the highest O/U on the day with the home team estimated at 5.71 runs.  Erik is gonna have a bad time…other games seeing big numbers should be BOSvsCHC (9.5) and CINvsTEX (9.33) with ARZvsTOR (9.04) and MINvsPHI (9.03) to round out the fun with runs.  If you’re looking for safety in lack of numbers, NYMvsKC sits at 5.72 and it doesn’t get any lower than that.