It’s not a great year to be rooting for Milwaukee and it just got worse as the year progressed. GM fired? Check. Big name star traded? Double check. Big name stars hurt? Triple check. Your mama always taught you not to kick someone while they’re down, but your mama didn’t play DFS. What, were you expecting a ‘your mama’ joke? What is this, 1989? I’m sure your mama is nice, just don’t ask me why she wanted me as a job reference on her resume (subtle maternal insults are the best!). But back to beating on the bad teams…Brewers are bad. Since we started off with a beer analogy, let’s keep it rolling and say this is not Milwaukee’s Best. Or maybe it is? I’m a beer snob but haven’t had that beer so I’ll pretend it doesn’t taste like runny pig bile and give you MB lovers the benefit of the doubt. Whichever side makes me insult you less is the side I’m going for, though, let’s make that clear. Choose your own adventure here and let’s move on to why we talk of the Brew Crew being the pew crew: Andrew Cashner. Would I love to attack the Brewers with a safer option? You betcha. Am I ok with taking this chance at a low end price of $6,100? YUP. So tip a few back as you watch the DK points rack up. Or maybe as you tip a few back it just looks like you’re scoring a lot cuz you’re seeing double. Whatevs, just enjoy yourself. Here’s the rest of my PBR takes for this Wednesday DK slate…
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Garrett Richards, SP: $9,200 – Angels and company are holding to slivers of hope that they get in on the Wild Card action this year and Richards at home is just what you’d like in those situations. Garrett has held to some major home/road splits this year and I don’t think a date with Oakland changes that. Though to be fair, a date with Oakland would probably start with some Fireball shots and end with tattoos in places you didn’t know could be tattooed. I’m just sayin…oh and while we’re talking Angels, a stack. G-Rich is facing off against Barry Zitold and it could get ugly fast. I’m not even gonna name names, you know the usual suspects. Ok, I’ll name one name: David Freese. If you’re stacking, get him in there.
R.A. Dickey, SP: $6,500 – Sigh, the struggles of writing the night before. This spot was once reserved for Marcus Stroman and I was happy. Now it’s filled by this big Dickey and I am not as happy. That said, my initial analysis still fits: Orioles are the worst hitting team over both the last 7 and 14 days according to wRC+ so I’m not going to fight
Logan Verrett, SP: $4,000 – The punt to end all punts, Verrett is priced like he’s a high end catcher. This is your way to bulk up on bats and nothing more. Pray for 15 points and enjoy Logan’s run against the Phillies.
John Jaso, C: $2,600 – I’m going punting…I’m the punter. I like Bjork. Leave your vitriol in the comments, just realize I DGAF. Oh and really, punting where I can and Jaso is a nice cash game play if he’s batting leadoff.
Lucas Duda, 1B: $4,100 – With 10+ points in each of his last five games and 26+ in his last three, can we just say that the Duda is abiding and we should too? And while we’re at it, a Mets stack ain’t crazy. Consider Curtis Granderson and Daniel Murphy here while we’re at it.
Justin Smoak, 1B: $2,600 – This is a ‘check the lineups’ call. Camden is purty friendly to lefties and the Blue Jays seem inclined to treat this switch hitter like he only hits righties. While we’re at it, check in on Dioner Navarro at lineup lock to see if you have another cheap catcher punt option.
Josh Harrison, 2B/3B: $3,400 – He’s cheap and has been finding himself batting leadoff when a lefty in on the mound. If you can’t afford Murphy for the Mets stack, throw on a little J-Hay, as the Pirates call him. Which is really confusing. Where’d the ‘y’ come from?
Brandon Drury, 2B/3B: $2,700 – I know, every time I’ve suggested him, he hasn’t produced. If he’s in there and batting 2nd again, though, I’m back at that well hoping it’s not that one from The Ring.
Alex Rodriguez, 3B: $4,300 – You’re trying to catch a falling knife here as he’s had an abysmal second half but he’s still hitting for power and with his season long ISO against lefties being what it is, I’m ok with chancing that Wade coughs one up to A-Rod.
Kyle Seager, 3B: $3,500 – It’s been mentioned a little around here but not enough: Seager is a bit of a reverse splitter, against which his .OPS goes up almost .100 points. Scott Kazmir is no slouch but I won’t be starting him today. You wanna know why? Mariners stack! I’m also considering Nelson Cruz, Franklin Gutierrez, and even Mark Trumbo here for their contributions against lefties this year.
Starlin Castro, SS: $3,100 – I’m fine with a Seager stack today by going after Corey if I can afford it, but I’m also fine with just going cheaper and kicking that can down the road. Starlin has had a relatively unheralded second half, batting .296 while doubling his 1st half ISO…ok, ok that’s a .074 vs .156 difference but it sounded impressive, right? I’m just saying Castro is hitting well and he’s in a nice park for righties. I’d also consider Javier Baez at $2,400 if he’s in the lineup.
Shin-soo Choo, OF: $5,100 – Speaking of great second halfs…wait, for baseball it is ‘halves’ or ‘halfs’? My mind is telling me no about halves but my wordpress is tellin’ me yes. Anyhoo, I’ve been Choo-Choo-Choosing Shin-Soo a lot of late – last night, in fact – so I’m just fine with squeezing him in if I can. Overall, a stack against Gas Can Boyd can’t be a bad thing. Adrian Beltre and Mike Napoli are also in play here for me.
George Springer, OF: $4,200 – Springer is having himself a time in Seattle right now with 10+ points against the Mariners in both games he’s played. Too small a sample, you say? Alright, well in 31 at bats this year in Safeco, Springer is rocking a 1.218 OPS with three bombs and even last year in 20 AB had three HRs there. With a lefty on the mound, I’m about to get sprung with Springer.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Unlike yesterday’s weathergate, things are looking to stay relatively dry for today. There’s threats up and down the east coast with low percentages as of this morning. Just be sure to check in when lineups are closer to lock before worrying too much about it now.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Richards and his Halos come in as the heavy favorite on the night as LAAvsOAK pushes the Angels to a -240 favorite. Behind him, it gets a little dicey with the PHIvsNYM tilt leaning the Mets way at -190 and Cleveland’s Cody Anderson sitting at -180 for the Indians. I guess you could call Cody a tourney dart throw but you’re hoping for many innings and little damage because he likely won’t bring those sweet Ks to the table. There are a lot of high O/U today with a whopping seven games at 8.5 or 9 with one of them in fact being the Halos. Even if you don’t go with Richards, sprinkling those Angels bats makes a ton of sense given expected game script. Your lows of the day come courtesy of SDvsMIL and PITvsSTL at 7 apiece. As per usual, be mindful of moving lines throughout the day. Who knows, it could save your life one day. But hopefully not cuz that just prolly means you’re gambling way too much.