Is everyone recovered from their NFL opening night hangover? I’m excited to have some NFL DFS to pair with the grind of MLB DFS. Something to keep in mind these next four weeks is MLB DFS will be losing a fair share of players as NFL takes over the scene. Like it or not, NFL DFS is infinitely more popular than MLB DFS. I get it, in this instant gratification world we live in, NFL DFS is that one killer weekend party while MLB DFS is the local bar down the road; it’s there for you every night, but it’s not exactly thrilling. What does this loss mean for us hardcore MLB DFSers? Well, keep an eye out for overlay for one. Mostly though, it means the casual player has likely moved on which leaves stiffer competition from here on out. You have been advised (in my best Nick Capozzi voice, I miss Nick).
On to today, Clayton Kershaw picks right up at basically the same price as when he last pitched…over two months ago. The good news is he pitched a whole 3 innings in his rehab start. I know the guy’s a machine, but I’m not feeling the $13,500 price tag for 5 innings of Kershaw. That brings us to the next high priced ace, Jose Fernandez. The Marlins have already come right out and said Jose will be shut down if they’re eliminated from the playoffs. I don’t know about you, but that doesn’t give me a warm fuzzy for his potential innings. For $12,700, I’ll look elsewhere. So, where should we look? Let’s take the jump and see:
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Carlos Martinez, SP: $10,300 – C-Mart is my ace of the night and if I’m paying up, this is where I’ll start. Martinez gets a cushy home match-up against the Brewers who lead the world in strikeouts. It’s a great situation at a great price.
Yu Darvish, SP: $9,800 – The Angels are on the other end of the strikeout spectrum, in that, they don’t strikeout much at all. This, along with Yu’s shellacking at the hands of Houston would normally have me off a guy, but I’m a sucker for Darvish. The odds for a win are great and 6 IP, 6 Ks with some upside for more isn’t terrible. If you’re looking for cash game safety, C-Mart/Darvish is about as good as it gets.
Danny Salazar, SP: $9,000 – I’m not sure there’s a pitcher in baseball with a greater discrepancy between his potential floor and potential ceiling. 4 IP, 6 ERs or 6 IP, 1 ER with 12Ks, nobody knows. What I do know, is that’s the definition of a GPP play. Let’s just hope he pitches around Byron Buxton.
Michael Pineda, SP: $7,400 – Of course, right after I make that statement we have Pineda. Pineda has also been a total Jeckyl and Hyde. Danny Pineda might be the most volatile pitcher known to man. Think Mount Vesuvius meets Miley Cyrus. Despite all that, the opponent is right tonight as Pineda gets to face the Rays who are 4th in the league in strikeouts. The Yankees are at home to boot, which is always a good thing when searching for upside.
Buster Posey, C: $4,100 – I like a cheap catcher as much as the next guy, but sometimes they’re all terrible. It happens. Buster Posey is not terrible and gets a prime match-up against the fresh from the DL Rubby de la Rosa in Coors South. Rubby was bi-polar pre injury and I’m not convinced he won’t need Tommy John surgery at some point yet. In the meantime, we should see him for an inning or three before this game gets turned over to the worst bullpen in baseball (5.13 ERA). Stack your Giants.
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B: $3,900 – I get that Porcello’s been great this year, but I still find it hard to get behind Edwin being priced cheaper than Brad Miller. Besides, the Jays at home are deadly bunch.
Brandon Moss, 1B/OF: $3,900 – I’m good with stacking against Jimmy Nelson with some St. Louis lefties. Jimmy Nelson has one of the higher wOBAs (.340) vs. lefty bats and the Cards have a propensity for scoring runs (tied for 4th). That all adds up to a potential tough night for Jimmy.
Anthony Rendon, 3B: $4,200 – The Nationals are another team I’ll be looking to get plenty of exposure too as they face Jake Thompson and his 6.48 ERA and his potential innings limit. Rendon’s got a 7 game hit streak working and never seems to be a very popular pick, which makes him a nice target.
Jose Peraza, SS/OF: $4,100 – All he does is hit and he’s even got the platoon advantage working for him tonight. I preached this with Trea Turner before, but with stolen bases being worth the same as doubles, these guys that can steal 2-3 bases a night have nice upside.
Dansby Swanson, SS: $2,900 – If you feel the need for some salary cap relief, catcher and middle infield are always the places I look. For example, a sub $3K SS with HRs in back to back games.
Jose Bautista, OF: $4,000 – I’m fine being the only guy stacking against Rick Porcello. Joey Bats is my BvP special of the night and for good reason. In 34 ABs against Porcello Bautista has 14 hits (.412 AVG) with 3 HRs and even a stolen base mixed in.
David Dahl, OF: $4,100 – The Rockies tend to be forgotten men when they leave Coors, but that could be a mistake against an awful Luis Perdomo. That 1.69 WHIP is just gross and the slew of Rockie lefties are licking their chops over it and the .368 wOBA vs. lefties. Raimel Tapia and his $2,200 salary make a nice play if he starts as well.
Justin Upton, OF: $3,500 – Are you going to bet against Justin Upton at this point? He’s only doing this to spite you. Upton’s had 19 or more points in 4 of his last 6 games and now his price has dropped. If you don’t roster him, he’ll homer…your move.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There’s a chance of sprinkles in Pittsburgh and New York tonight. St. Louis looks the scariest tonight, but hopefully it passes or my pitching plan goes to heck in a hand-basket.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Tanner Roark gets biggest favorite honors tonight, but I think that speaks more to Philly and Jake Thompson than Roark. The 9 over/under speaks volumes there. Nine is the highest run total of the night and besides the PHI@WAS game it can also be found in the CIN (Adleman) @ PIT (Brault) tilt as well as CLE (Salazar) @ MIN (Duffey). The lowest over/under, no surprise can be found in the LAD @ MIA game where Kershaw faces Jose Fernandez. That run total is 6.5.