If there’s one thing I kill myself doing in DFS it’s talking myself into starting a pitcher against a decent offense and whiff on sticking with targeting the stinkers.
Tuesday, it was talking myself into Andrew Cashner because Vegas had the game at a very low number, with Cashner as a slight favorite. I ignored the data that told me that the Giants weren’t terrible against RHP, especially at home and they certainly didn’t strike out much to boot.
I decided the Brewers data was too early to call, so I didn’t spend up to get Zach Greinke, even though the Brewers had been terrible against RHP so far and struck out plenty to justify any risk of one of the Brew Crew connecting.
Also, I ignored the numbers that were telling me Shelby Miller was a good play against the Phillies, again due to high Ks, low numbers on the road and overall and that Vegas had Miller as a heavy favorite against forgotten Chad Billingsley.
Sometimes you have to look at the numbers, trust your process and do what you have to do. It also helps to lock yourself in a closet after setting your lineups so you don’t do a last minute panic switch that sends you to the poorhouse.
So what about tonight? Despite temptations to roster a personal fave, Chris Sale, on the bump against the Tigers, I am sticking to the data and going with Pittsburgh’s Gerrit Cole at home against the Reds. The Reds are 23rd vs. RHP this season and 27th on the road. Mix in Cole’s #3 status on the SIERA charts so far and Cole is my pick at $9,500 for my SP1 Wednesday night on DraftKings.
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Gerrit Cole, SP: $9,500 – As stated above, he’s got it going on right now and has a good matchup against the Reds at home. The Pirates haven’t been a great play, but against Mike Leake and being at home, the Pirates should be good to go to support Cole.
Lance Lynn, SP: $8,800 – I am almost violating my mantra I just spent a few paragraphs above talking about by supporting Lynn. This is because the Cubs are a good offense and I don’t like going in against those teams, especially at a price point like Lynn’s. However, Lynn should be able to exploit 24% K rate the Cubs spend against RHP. The Cubs also whiff at a 23.7% pace on the road, meaning that Lynn should be able to strikeout enough Cubs to put up good points, even if the Cubs get two or three runs off Lynn.
Stephen Vogt, 1B/C: $4,100 – He’s finally over 4K on DraftKings but we like him Wednesday anyway due to two things. Kyle and Gibson. Remember that we touted Gerrit Cole and mentioned he was #3 in the league so far in SIERA? Well, guess who is not only not #3, but in fact the worst in the category this season? Yup, Gibson has been that bad, posting a SIERA in the mid 5s, including being very hittable on both sides of the plate. Few catchers have been raking it as well as Vogt.
Mark Teixeira, 1B: $4,400 – If Vogt is raking amongst catchers, and he is, then you can put Teixeira down as doing the same at first base. Off the grid as a top-flight first baseman last season, Teixeira has been rock solid in the middle of the Yankee lineup this season. Put the switch-hitter up against the Blue Jays and Mark Buehrle, who is in the bottom 20 in SIERA himself, and he’ll be contributing his share of the 8.5 Vegas total for this game.
Freddie Freeman and Adrian Gonzalez, 1B: $4,900 – If you have cash left over and can move to either of these two guys from Teixeira or whoever, then these are your guys to do with with. Freeman has been otherwordly so far this season in terms of hard hit ratings, power metrics and the like. Getting another Phillies hurler only adds to the totals. As for Gonzalez, he’s been a shade behind Freeman, but not too far. With Wily Peralta pitching in the climate controlled Miller Park, A-Gon should be able to keep it rolling without much pitching resistance.
Justin Turner, 2B/3B: $3,700 – Turner has quietly been making it very difficult to keep him out of the Dodgers lineup. His hard hit ball metrics and power ratings have shown him to be a very good DFS target. You have to be vigilant about making sure he’s in the lineup and batting at least in the middle of the lineup, but he’s a great play if he is.
Luis Valbuena, 2B/3B: $3,800 – Colby Lewis has already turned in a couple of surprising performances, but SIERA is not fooled, still ranking the Rangers righty in the bottom 40 in the league. Lewis is especially susceptible against lefties, so Valbuena and his power stroke make a good fit for this matchup in Houston.
Marcus Semien, 3B/SS: $4,400 – A little on the pricey side, but the Gibson matchup is too good to pass up on the #2 hitter, especially when Gibson is having a bad righty season so far.
Alex Rodriguez, 3B: $4,000 – It’s so hard to look away from Trevor Plouffe and David Freese when they go up against lefties like they are Wednesday, but so is A-Rod and his metrics are better across the board, just in case the cagey lefthander (copyrighted 1941) doesn’t last long.
Billy Burns, OF: $2,700 – To find someone this cheap on DraftKings that can actually produce is something. To have him bat leadoff is plug and play. To have him playing for the A’s and facing Kyle Gibson? Just roster him already.
Colby Rasmus, OF: $4,100 – Rasmus is the other lefty in the Astros lineup that can cause trouble for Colby Lewis, and his power numbers make him a nice tourney play given his high HR upside.
Josh Reddick, OF: $4,300 – Reddick fills two things in nicely: Our lineup with Cole and Lynn and our A’s stack against Gibson, with Vogt, Semien and Burns. Reddick has been legit mashing the ball and has moved up to third in the A’s lineup….a huge departure from his days toiling away in the eighth spot there.
Adam Jones, OF: $4,100 – Jones’ dollars keep dropping, which is just when you want to pounce on rostering some of these guys. Jones’ matchup against Jacob deGrom is enticing because deGrom has been scuffling lately but still carries the new stud smell on him and the game doesn’t totally reflect the wind casually blowing out to left field when Jones can drop a homer or two.
Andre Ethier, OF: $3,900 – He’s part of any balanced Dodgers stack, along with Joc Pederson, Adrien Gonzalez and either Justin Turner, Howie Kendrick or Jimmy Rollins, whoever is batting up the chain that night. Ethier has got his power card back and has been using to charge home runs and power to his account.
Chris Young, OF: $3,600 – A Play-Against-A-Lefty Special, Young has been a good spot play against southpaws and his price is always reasonable when those moments arise. He’s been batting high enough in the lineup when he does get the call to be able to get the most out of playing against LHP.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Keep an eye on our A’s stack in Minnesota, where the forecast is calling for thunderstorms and just as I was writing this out, it looks like the Pirates may be getting the same, meaning that if that forecast holds up tomorrow, you and I will have to pivot off of Cole and into a different SP1. Maybe Chris Sale will get the call, after all.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The big lines are either 8.5 or 9, with the Rangers/Astros leading the way and the Yankees/Blue Jays and the Rays/Red Sox lead the way while the Cubs/Cardinals hold the lowest number as this was written. For starting pitchers, it’s Cole leading the way at -165 but Sale is a -150, even against the Tigers.
