You never stop learning. Ever. The baseball season is a long race and while you think you may know what a player is or what you can expect, you have to keep checking in on trends to make sure you didn’t miss a zig when you been watching them zag all season.
Today’s J.D. Martinez is tomorrow’s Ryan Zimmerman. You may disregard a player like Brandon Moss, but if you are watching his power metrics and hard contact rate holding at an above average rate, you may just roster him in a tournament and watch him go deep with pride, as he did Thursday night.
Stay vigilant. Players returning from injury, like Stephen Strasburg, may have tightened up something that they weren’t getting right pre-injury. For Stras, it’s his curveball that he’s found that has jumped his swinging strike rate from 7-8% pre-injury, to 13 percent over his last several starts.
David Wright is a has-been who can’t be counted on anymore. *You check the numbers, find out he’s raking* Welp.
Making this part of the routine makes the DFS season fun and takes advantage of fish who have taken their eyes off baseball right now to bone up for the NFL season. Reel them in and cash on them — it’s what David Wright would want you to do.
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 20 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Max Scherzer, SP: $12,500 – His price is the lowest non-Coors start since he took on the Pirates in June. Coincidentally, that was the last time he blew out his number, scoring 55+ points in that one. Since then he’s scored 30 only twice in ten starts. So why tout him even at this number? Well, Miami is still the worst against RHP this season and Scherzer, despite the lack of high FP totals, still has rocked a 17% Swinging Strike rate, 11+ K/9 and a decent 3.45 SIERA over his last six starts. Home runs have been an issue for Max, but Miami has been the third hardest park to homer in this season. Should be a bounce-back game for Max and Vegas agrees, installing the Nationals as a -250 favorite in Miami.
Danny Salazar, SP: $10,800 – Salazar is also a solid favorite at -160, but Salazar has been on a rough patch as well. The Angels, however, have been the worst hitting team in the majors over the last 15 days and they are less than average on the road and against RHP this season.
Russell Martin, C: $4,000 – The Jays are at home against a lefty (Matt Boyd), so the righties will be flying off the shelves Friday. Martin is not priced up even with this and his wOBA is solid against against lefties.
John Jaso, C: $2,900 – I am not sure who John Jaso angered, but his price is way low considering his leadoff-y ways in Tampa and that he’s hitting with authority since returning to the lineup weeks ago. Jaso has a .358 wOBA against RHP and Edinson Volquez has some regression due him from lefty bats this season.
Ryan Zimmerman, 1B/3B: $3,900 – Zimmerman has been raking since returning from injury, hitting the ball with very high hard contact rate and expected power. Combine that with an extreme fly ball rate and Zimmerman is a good bet to go deep these days. Zimmerman has a .377 wOBA against LHP, too, which means that with Adam Conley on the mound against him, Zimmerman is in a good spot.
Adam Lind, 1B: $4,000 – Lind has a great wOBA against RHP, bordering on .400, which is reason enough to give him a look at home in Milwaukee, where Miller Park has posted the third best home run rate and fourth best hitting park overall this season.
Cesar Hernandez, 2B/SS: $2,800 – Rostered him last night and got 11 FP for my efforts — Hernandez is a great punt play in the middle infield given his contact rate and speed. He is also always near the top of the order so as long as he has a decent matchup, and Ian Kennedy definitely applies, Hernandez will be a good position to deliver as he has been.
Troy Tulowitzki, SS: $4,300 – High in the order against a lefty in the Rogers Centre. At a mere 4.3K, Tulo is lock/load tonight. But if you needed convincing, a .390 wOBA against LHP should help and the 9.5 run number for the game means there should be plenty of Tulo-action in play.
Andres Blanco, SS/3B: $2,400 – Last time I said there would be an ANDRES BLANCO! moment in the game and he did not disappoint. So he’s not a min price 2K special, but this modest increase does not deter me in the slightest. His power metrics are still in line and has a healthy wOBA for the month.
Josh Donaldson, 3B: $5,700 – Ok, he’s a bit pricy, maybe the bit priciest out there, but come on, like we said with Tulo: LHP, in Toronto, batting high in the order, ridiculous .440 wOBA against said LHP — it’s incredible. The best raw play on the board tonight, no price considered. Alas, you do have to consider it, and you may have to run Mike Leake out there as a SP to make it work.
David Wright, 3B: $4,000 – No, this isn’t charity, it’s an acknowledgment that Wright has raked since his return, scoring very high in power and fly ball rate since he came back. I’d say the Mets are in a good spot at home against a LHP, but they seem to be in a good spot anywhere, so why not grab a piece of the pie?
Nelson Cruz, OF: $5,600 – Pure fun play of the slugging Cruz facing off against John Danks. His price is high and you would probably, if you could afford this tier of player, want to roster Donaldson instead at this height, but he has an even more ridiculous wOBA against southpaws and Danks is silly bad against righties.
Jose Bautista, OF: $5,300 – Bautista wraps up our too-high to roster with top end SP suggestions, but his scores for the night come out high like his teammates at C, SS and 3B.
Jayson Werth, OF: $3,400 – Werth should likely be locked into leadoff with Denard Span returning to the DL, perhaps for the season. Werth gets a solid matchup against a lefty in Conley and even though the park is a tough homer park, he should be in a good enough spot to be productive at this price.
Michael Cuddyer, OF/1B: $3,200 – Hey, if I am putting David Wright on here, you know I’m putting Cuddyer, who has a good wOBA (.340) against LHP and he’s eight hundred dollars cheaper.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There is no rain so far in the forecast, so roster without inhibition. But, as always, remember to check around before lock to make sure nothing has popped up.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Toronto @ Detroit features R.A. Dickey taking on Matt Boyd, so the O/U is set firmly at 9.5 runs. Elsewhere, Seattle at Chicago White Sox and Baltimore @ Texas are 8.5 lines. Scherzer is the top SP at -250 to win and the Cubs @ Dodgers is the lowest run total of the night at six.