You have to appreciate the classics.  I wouldn’t say I’m a jazz nerd or anything, but I do listen to the genre, am familiar with the legends and am generally a sucker for horns.  If you have no idea what I’m talking about right now, do yourself a favor and go hit up your favorite music streaming service and search for John Coltrane.  Then prepare yourself for some serious ear candy.  Speaking of candy (geez, that transition was more forced than a JB SeatGeek spot huh?), Gerrit Cole faces off against the Colorado Rockies tonight.  Facing the Rockies away from Coors is like taking the aforementioned candy right out of the hands of an infant.  These very same Rockies just made Adam Wainwright look like a legitimate ace.  I know, crazy right?  Cole held his own against the Rox out in Coors, 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 Ks.  That translates to 8 IP, -4 ER and 9 Ks in a normal ball park.  PNC park has also ranked in the bottom 1/5th in the league for LHB HR park factor the past two seasons.  That lines up perfectly for the left-heavy Rockies.  I really don’t understand Coles’s price tag tonight, but for $4,000 less than Jake Arrieta, he is my number one pitching play today.  Let’s see what other values we can dig up for tonight’s slate:

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well reserve your spot in the 25 Team Razzball Exclusive League set to run Monday May 23rd to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Aaron Nola, SP: $11,000 – No no no no Nola is probably my top cash game pitcher tonight.  It’s a song that has been sung many a time this year.  The Braves, they are horrendous.  Nola doesn’t create trouble for himself by walking many guys.  Thus, he is an extremely safe option.  Not to mention the Phils are -160 favorites tonight.

Lance McCullers, SP: $8,200 – Debuting against the Sawx in Fenway Park is just unfair.  With any luck, though, that poor first outing will keep people off Lance’s trail while we reap the rewards.  The 9 run over/under for this game is a little scary but I’ve got the feeling that has more to do with Colby Lewis than McCullers.  The strikeouts are what really intrigue me, though, as they are also the way to racking up DFS points.  Lance is a a solid GPP play and Grey’s favorite pitcher to sing about.  You can’t go wrong.

Matt Wisler, SP: $8,100 – The Braves squaring off against the Phillies is almost as bad as Kimbo Slice vs. Dada 5000.  Sure, it could be a scrap, but it’s just kind of sad to watch.  Neither team wants to hit the ball, in fact, they own 2 of the 3 lowest team OPSs in the majors right now.  This is why when there’s even a halfway decent pitcher facing them, we jump all over it.  Obviously you’re not using Wisler if you’ve rostered Nola.  Cole & Wisler for a combined $16,800 sounds so good, you just win all the monies right now.  Wisler’s punchouts are a little depressing, but it’s tough to argue with three straight outings of 7+ IP and all three resulting in quality starts.

Tanner Roark, SP: $7,000 – Not to start, but to ponder and potentially stack against.  This might not be so obvious unless you dig into Roark’s game log.  Most casual players might recall Roark’s 15 K game, see he’s facing the Marlins in Crayola Canyon and think that’s a solid start.  A closer examination reveals that every one of Roark’s poor outings this season (3 total) have come against these Marlins.  In fact, if you were to remove the games in which he’s faced the Marlins, Roark would boast a 0.79 ERA.  That’s plain ridiculous.  He’s given up 3 runs in 4 IP, 4 runs in 6 IP and most recently, 7 ER in 5 IP.  The Marlins could be a very sneaky stack tonight.

Salvador Perez, C: $2,600 – If you feel like I’ve mentioned Salvy as my catcher in every article so far, you’d be pretty much spot on.  I don’t know what DraftKing’s pricing algorithm is smoking, maybe it’s been chilling out with the hitter-tron on the weekends, but Perez has been too cheap all year long.  Tonight KC is in the hitter friendly US Cellular field taking on Jose Quintana.  Bad match-up you say?  I say, Perez has hit Quintana to the tune of 17/45 with 2 HRs and even a stolen base!

Jose Abreu, 1B: $4,500 – Are you afraid of Dillon Gee?  Me either.  Abreu’s batting average is steadily on the rise and I see that continuing tonight.

Justin Bour, 1B: $3,200 – Read the Roark blurb, see that Bour has 2 HRs in 14 ABs vs Roark so far, see the 7 HRs on the year, see the price tag, insert in lineup, move along.

Neil Walker, 2B: $3,700 – Walker has been the definition of boom or bust the past couple weeks.  Wily Peralta, his opponent tonight meanwhile has just been bust.  I like that combination.  The Brewers were contemplating pulling Peralta from the rotation entirely, but let’s face it, what else do they have to throw out there?  Craig Counsell provided this beauty of a quote regarding Wily, saying: “The best way for him to get going is to get out there and pitch”.  Uhh^100 huh.  Dating advice from Craig Counsell includes texting that girl from the bar every 5 minutes until she says yes or files a restraining order.  Got it.

Derek Dietrich, 2B/3B: $3,300 – Alright, my last time mentioning a Marlin…or is it?  No, it is.  Dietrich is cheap and is hitting leadoff, though, so do what you do and don’t forget about Derek.

Manny Machado, 3B/SS: $4,100 – Machado is the same price as Anthony Rendon huh?  Makes sense, I mean Machado is only slugging almost double what Rendon is (.624 vs .321).  Granted, Machado is facing Santiago and Rendon is facing Nicotine-o, but Manny’s just about match-up proof.

Jung-Ho Kang, 3B: $3,900 – I’m a sucker for Kang.  I have been since last preseason when I read a great breakdown of his swing comparing it to Miguel Cabrera’s.  I’m not saying he’s the Korean swiggy or anything, but the kid has done nothing but hit since coming over.  The Pirates are babying him a little early on, so watch the lineup.  If Kang is playing, he’ll be hitting clean-up and sub $4K clean-up hitters don’t grow on trees.  What a weird tree that would be.

Taylor Motter, 3B/SS: $2,300 – I like cheap MIs and I cannot lie.  The Rays love them some platooney tunes, so check the lineup.  A Brad Miller ($3,400) pivot may be necessary, but it’s hard to say how strict a platoon they plan on running here.  They did just trot Motter out vs. Dickey the other day…and he went 0 for 5, but that’s besides the point.  The point is, he’s cheap and they batted him 2nd.

Khris Davis, OF: $3,900 – I’m not sure anyone is hotter in the power department right now than baby Krush.  He’ll get to face off against the rotund lefty, CC Sabathia tonight.  CC is fresh off the DL and ready to resume his 4.70ish ERA ways of the past few seasons.  Sign me up for some green and gold Krush.

Michael Conforto, OF: $3,800 – See what I wrote about Walker and substitute the player with the third highest hard hit percentage in baseball.  Conforto is behind only David Ortiz and…David Wright?  Didn’t see that one coming.

Colby Rasmus, OF: $3,600 – No, it’s not a short schedule day, but I’m digging that 9 run over/under and the fact that Rasmus typically hits 4th when he’s in there.  Boom or bust, but not a bad gamble at this price tag.

Paulo Orlando, OF: $2,400 – Speaking of price tags, I love these low $2K players, they free up an unbelievable amount of cap space so we can afford guys like Jose Altuve, Giancarlo Stanton and Yoenis Cespedes.  I’m not sure what Jose Quintana ever did to the Royals, but they have hit him hard and Orlando is no exception (5 for 11).  He’ll likely be hitting 8th, but if the Royals have a hit parade, for this cheap, he’ll be well worth it.

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

The Seattle Mariners @ Cincinnati Reds looks to be the biggest headache tonight.  Beyond that it’s a mix of sunshine and overcast skies, we should be playing ball everywhere else.  Keep an eye on the Cincinnati radar though.

Doing Lines In Vegas

We have a three way tie atop the biggest favorite list for tonight, all at -2000.  They are, in no particular order, Cole and the Pirates, followed by Arrieta and the Cubs and Matz and the Mets.  I’m tentative on Matz.  I think I’d rather pay up for Arrieta or Nola (-155) or jump down to Cole.  The Cubs @ Giants tilt features the lowest over/under on the night, getting the 6.5 run treatment.  I’ve mentioned the Rangers @ Astros game and it’s 9 over/under several times, that is the highest of the night, tied with the Indians @ Red Sox.  Clay Suchholz takes the mound in that one.  Feel free to load up on Indians.

 
  1. Malicious Phenoms says:
    (link)

    Yeah, well, Wacha faced those same Rocks on the road last night and how did that work out for ya..Seems like that infant kicked Wacha’s ASS…LOL..Cust Kayn

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
      (link)

      Yea…but Wacha sucks…so there’s that. Hence why I didn’t stream him…or play him in DFS…or own him anywhere. Wacha’s rocking a 3.51 FIP compared to Cole’s 2.78 and his K rate minus BB rate is 4.5 compared to Cole’s 6. Will the Rockies ever score runs on the road? Of course, but PNC park suppresses LHB power and Cole is a borderline ace for $8,700 DK dollars. It’s insane value and the numbers point to it working out in our favor more times than not. That’s all I go by man, thanks for dropping in though.

      • J-FOH says:
        (link)

        @MattTruss: nice comeback. His anecdotal vs your actual data was no match

      • Malicious Phenoms says:
        (link)

        @MattTruss: I was just bustin your chops man..

        • MattTruss

          MattTruss says:
          (link)

          I feel you

  2. J-FOH says:
    (link)

    Great stuff today. Really glad to see you coming into your own. I’m really glad I tapped you on the shoulder and invited you onto the boat. I also like the double plug up top for some Matty two times action.

    Before I go I have this pet peeve forming when it comes hard hit%. I think it’s an interesting stat but feel it needs to be a compliment to batted ball profile and average fly ball distance. It’s been getting too much run as a baseline for performance when it should be a compliment to better indicators of performance and projection. In no way am I criticizing your conforto blurb just wanted to bounce this off another dfser for conversation purposes. Keep up the great work. I really enjoyed reading this today especially the cheap mi who if he plays will be in the 2 hole. That’s what tourneys are made for.

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
      (link)

      Hell yea, thanks FOH! You must be a Coltrane fan, we tend to dig the same vibes. Do I recall your dad being a big jazz guy?

      I totally agree on your assessment of hard hit %. Standing by it’s lonesome, it doesn’t really tell you a whole heck of a lot. It’s neat and all, but definitely doesn’t paint the full picture. Had I been breaking down a player Big Magoo style, batted ball profile would’ve certainly worked it’s way in there. For the DFS blurb, guy that hits ball hard, facing terrible pitcher, for a good price, just about covers it. It’s a good pet peeve to have going. Mine is how every MLB announcer feels the need to force feed me exit velocity every 10 seconds. It’s great, but stop slapping me over the head with it! This is second of course to anyone using the term “Papa Slam”, which invokes a rage inside me unseen by human eyes until now.

      Thanks for stopping in man, don’t be a stranger!

  3. Mr glass says:
    (link)

    How do you feel about pairing Sonny Gray with Nola, I know Gray has been atrocious but he’s at home against a equally awful Yankees lineup and being priced at $6800 seems like it can turn into a steal if he even comes close to evening out and puts up a good start

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
      (link)

      I could see it, but even against a bad team, when you’re walking 4 per 9, you’re going to get into trouble, ya know? his FIP is 5.14, so it’s not even like he’s been getting unlucky, he’s just been bad. It’d be a good tournament play, since I’m sure he’d be low owned, but I wouldn’t risk too much $$ on it.

      • Mr glass says:
        (link)

        @MattTruss: yeah didn’t know it was that bad basically I have 10,800 left to split between my pitcher and catcher slots so if I pick cincys Catcher I might be able to work someone else in there

  4. the tone ranger says:
    (link)

    hello MattT, who you got for rest of season? kluber or Harvey? both have ERAs above FIP and neither was a grey favorite, but given the choice who you got? thanks

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
      (link)

      Oh man, this is a tough one, great question! I actually own both of these slugs on a couple separate teams, it’s been loads of fun! Harvey has been way more frustrating for some reason though. My Mets fan buddy, mauledbypandas and I have chatted quiet a bit about this ass clown. We think it’s mental, Grey thinks its dead arm, both of which seem fixable, but who knows. I think Harvey has more upside, but if you offered me Kluber for Harvey right now, I’d take Kluber. Let’s put it this way, I haven’t written anyone any strongly worded emails with the subject line: F&$% Kluber yet.

      • The tone ranger says:
        (link)

        @MattTruss: LOL! I feel your pain. I watch those Harvey starts and I’m on edge the entire time until I want to find a cliff and then jump off it. I have Harvey in a keeper and I can’t stand him so much that I might actually take the older and less upsidey kluber just to get his ass off my team. Thanks for writing me back. Hopefully they both turn it around

Comments are closed.