It’s June! That means Orange Is the New Black is back and Max Scherzer is dominating batters. If you haven’t seen the show, don’t worry. This write up contains no spoilers. All you need to know is that there is character named Crazy Eyes and Max has crazy eyes. Like the Orange Is the New Black fan base, Max loves June. Throughout his career, hitters only have a .284 wOBA in June. His first complete game came in June 2014 when he shut out the White Sox. His first no-hitter came in June 2015 against the Pirates at Nationals Park. It was nearly a perfect game, but was spoiled by Jose Tabata. BOLD PREDICTION ALERT: Scherzer will throw a perfect game today! It’s the only logical outcome. Sorry Padres fans, but the Padres are the team most likely for Max to achieve a perfect game against. They have a league low .278 wOBA and 75 wRC+ vs RHP. They also have the lowest BB/K ratio at .26 vs RHP. Max has been throwing close to 55% fourseamers this season, which the Padres have been hitting only .222 and slugging a league low .377 against. While Max has struggled against lefties this season, Jon Jay is the Padres best lefty… I’m not too concerned. Padres hitters are going to feel like they are in prison when the dig in to face off against Max. I now sentence to read the rest of my picks for this Saturday DK slate.
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well reserve your spot in the 25 Team Razzball Exclusive League set to run Monday June 20th to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Danny Salazar, SP: $11,400 – Danny has allowed 3 or less hits in 7 of his 12 starts. That’s the least among all starting pitchers this season. He has also allowed 4 or less hits in 9 of 12 starts. The few hits he allows helps limit the damage of all the walks he gives up. Among qualified pitchers with a WHIP at 1.13 or lower, he has the highest walk rate at 8.5%. What I love most about Danny is his 26.9% K rate, which is good for 8th among in qualified pitchers. This K rate is generated mainly from his 96 mph fastball and his change. The White Sox have been middle of the pack in hitting fastballs from RHP. But when we limit it to fourseamers 96+, the White Sox are only batting .183 (4th worst). Danny Boy fourseamer has average 96.56 in June. All Danny needs to do is find the strike zone and the Sox should dig their own grave.
Steven Matz, SP: $10,900 – The Braves are in town! He hasn’t thrown a quality start in his past 3, but it’s the Braves. Against LHP, the Braves have the second lowest walk rate at 6.1%, a strikeout rate of 22.9%, and a 58 wRC+… 58! Need I say more? Yes? Okay, let’s talk about the pitcher on the other side, Aaron Blair. Blair’s ERA sits at 7.59, largely due to his walk rate of 13.2%, WHIP of 1.81, HR/9 of 1.13. His longest outing of the season was 6 IP, and he only accomplished that once. This gives way to the Braves bullpen, who have a 4.56 ERA and a .746 OPS against. The Mets will have plenty of opportunity to score runs and give Matz the opportunity to win the game.
Dallas Keuchel, SP: $7,700 – A disappointing season thus far for the reigning Cy Young champ. While Minute Maid Park is more hitter friendly, Kid Keuchy has been better there throughout his career. In nearly 400 IP, hitters have a wOBA of .284. His last 5 starts have shown signs of last season. He only walked 4 with 34 K and a 2.43 xFIP. He has also seen an increase in velocity in June. Meanwhile, the Reds are worse when away from Great American Ball Park, with a 81 wRC+. On a limited sample size this season, the Reds have a league low batting average against sinkers. The Reds were just in Atlanta, where they split the series 2-2 vs a team with a .303 win%. At a relatively cheap price, Keuchel should provide value.
Jonathan Lucroy, C: $4,000 – Mike Bolsinger has gave up 7 homers in 5 starts. Bolsinger may be generating more swings and misses, but he has not been generating the ground balls he did in his first two seasons. Hitters have been getting a hold of his pitches, averaging an exit velocity of 92 mph. Lucroy has the highest wOBA (.362) and OPS (.831) among qualified catchers vs RHP since 2014. He has been even better this season, with a .406 wOBA and a .956 OPS.
Brian McCann, C: $3,700 – He has dominated Ricky Nolasco over 65 PA with a 1.160 OPS and 8 homers. This big bald lefty has tallied over 4000 PA vs RHP in his career and owns .351 wOBA. But be warned, he hasn’t had a multi hit game since May 15. I think his history with Ricky and RHP will help him break out of his slump.
Willson Contreras, C: $2,000 – This Cubs prospect has been dominating AAA. He was batting .353, with a 1.035 OPS, and 9 homers. If he gets to make his debut today, he will help you afford the more expensive arms and bats on today’s slate.
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B: $5,500 – Yovani Gallardo is back from the DL and has the privilege of facing the Jays in Camden Yards. The Jays may be with out Bautista, but still have the hot hitters in their lineup. Edwin has been averaging 16.5 points/game in his past 10, and has 6 homers in his last 7 games. Parrots are found mostly in tropical areas, so stay hot Edwin and treat your parrot right.
Hanley Ramirez, 1B: $4,300 – Wade Miley is coming to Fenway. This should put Big Papi on the bench and HanRam at either 1B or DH. Miley and his 5.28 ERA have a been inconsistent this season, and when away from Safeco hitters have a .361 wOBA off him. HanRam has been inconsistent himself, making him a tourney option for today.
Roughed Odor, 2B: $3,800 – He may not walk, but he knows how to swing his bat. Since returning from his suspension, he has hit in 11 of 14 games. In that same span, he is batting .291 with a .618 slugging and 6 homers. Martinez has struggled slightly against LHB throughout his career. In 173.1 innings hitters have a .336 wOBA and 18 HR.
Scooter Gennett, 2B, $3,600 – Kids these days are big in to scooters, and so am I. But not as a mode of transportation and trickery, but as a DFS 2B. Similar to Odor, he’s a free swinger who rarely walks. He’s batting .333 in June and doing most of his damage in the 2 hole. Bolsinger has been crushed by LHB, as opposing lefties are batting .294 with a .835 OPS.
Kris Bryant, 3B: $5,000 – He was held out of Friday’s lineup with a sore tum tum. If he is back in today, he’s my top option at 3B. Jonathon Niese has given up 12 homers and a .377 wOBA to RHB this season. Niese throws his 3 fastballs (fourseam, sinker, and cutter) 83% of the time. On those pitch types, Bryant is hitting .330 and slugging of .577.
Chase Headley, 3B: $2,800 – Let’s pretend April never happened for this old guy. If we do that, Headley is batting .296 with a .777 OPS. Lucky 7’s! We are gambling here people. 777 is a sign that we can’t ignore.
Danny Espinosa, SS: $4,000 – He’s been one of the hottest SS in June, with a 163 wRC+. Slugging .652 he has definitely shown the most power. Colin Rea doesn’t miss many bats with his pitches. When throwing in the strike zone, opposing batters make contact on 92% of their swings. If anything, pick Danny so you can look at his glorious moustache on his DraftKings picture.
Jose Iglesias, SS: $3,200 – The only SS hotter in June that Espinosa is Iglesias. Jose may not be slugging .652, but he is batting .388 with a 178 wRC+ and walk rate of 13.3%. Walks are something Volquez has struggled with in June. He’s been walking 13% of batters in his three June starts. There is no lefty-righty matchup up bonus here, but Volquez has had more trouble with RHP the past two seasons. Volquez swinging strike rate is down from last season, while Jose has an impressive 3.5% swinging strike rate (4th lowest in the MLB).
Chris Young, OF: 4,500 – Looking for power, but can’t afford Mookie Betts? Here is his teammate, who has a .276 ISO and .915 OPS. In players with at least 80 PA vs LHP since 2015, Young has the 3rd highest wOBA at .431 and an OPS of 1.028. If you are going to this game, don’t park your car behind the Green Monster.
Khris Davis, OF: $4,000 – The Angels are desperate for pitchers, so they found a way to bring back Tim Lincecum from the grave. Little Timmy has preformed well in his three AAA starts, but I’m not buying it. Since his decline in 2012, RHB have a .346 wOBA in 309.2 IP. Khris is better vs LHP, but still has a respectable 115 wRC+ vs RHP in his career.
Steven Moya, OF: $2,500 – I lean toward putting Kris Bryant in your 3rd outfield spot so you can have a Chris/Khris/Kris outfield. But if are in need of a cheaper power option, here is the Tigers replacement for JD Martinez. He’s been crushing balls in AAA, with a .298 BA and .571 slugging.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Clear Skies, Full Hearts, Can’t Lose. The only weather issues today are in Miami, which get eliminated by the roof. There are 12-15 mph winds to right field in Oakland for Tim Lincecum’s season debut. Opposite winds in Boston, as 11 mph winds are coming in from right field. 10 mph winds are coming in from left/center to help Max with his perfect game.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Big dogs are out to play today. There are 5 games with favorites over -200. Keuchel and the Astros top the day at -270. Matz and the Metz are second at -240, followed up close by Lester and the Cubs at -230. Salazar and the Indians are expected to blow out the White Sox as they are the favorites at -225 with a game total of 9. Closing out the big favorites is perfect Max and the Nationals at -220, who also share the lowest line of the day with ARI/PHI at 7. Like myself, Vegas expects Miley to get drilled as the highest total is in the BOS/SEA game at 10. Porcello and the Red Sox get the favorite at -154 in this high scoring affair. Another high scoring game is expected in the TOR/BAL game with a total of 9.5.
