Yeah, yeah, normally I open with something about a player but today I just ain’t doing it. Instead, I’m going to point out something I enjoy personally about the DFS world that, oddly, hasn’t happened much for my day of the week this year: the short slate. Today we have eight games on the docket which is a healthy amount and yet not one that requires an overload of breakdown or information. If you’re a novice or are still cutting your teeth on this silly little game we play, I strongly encourage you to take advantage of days like this or to sign up for games built around the ‘turbo’, ‘early’, or ‘late’ sets. These tend to be slates catering to smaller amounts of games played. They’re good for cash games, which in turn are good for your wallet, which in turn is good for your spinning of the wheel on the bigger slates and some tourney goodness. Anywhere from a five game to up to an eight or even nine is a nice place to be in my book. But enough about my weird novella, let us break it down. Here’s my flaming hot takes for the Monday DK slate…
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
A.J. Burnett, SP: $9,500 – Burnett’s last two turns have been…how shall I put it? Let’s go with ‘lumpy’. Like think of mashed potatoes. We want them smooth and then there’s a few chunks in there. Were they the worst mashed potatoes? No, but they definitely weren’t what you were expecting. Burnett, we need pillowy mounds. Against a Brewers team that puts fear into the hearts of no one when on the road, give me a second helping of A.J. today, weather permitting (yeah, this one’s got caveats).
Shelby Miller, SP: $8,400 – Fun fact, I have not rostered Shelby Miller this year. Not once. He’s always a name I gloss over when looking through the pitchers because he was pitching over his head and over his peripherals. I’m probably a donkey for this but I don’t follow pitching hot streaks. I just don’t believe in them simply because you can probably look back the at matchup for most who aren’t aces and spot the reason behind the big numbers. The Padres over the last 7 days are K’ing 24.1% of the time and have been underwhelming overall this season. I don’t mind Miller overall today if I’m not paying top dollar, weather permitting (stupid caveats!).
Mike Bolsinger, SP: $7,000 – Regression is a B from apartment 23, or so I’ve been told. We knew the honeymoon wouldn’t last with Bolsinger but I do know his home ballpark is favorable and his 55.1% ground ball rate helps in keeping the run totals down. I didn’t talk about the most expensive pitcher on the night in Chris Sale simply because he’s the top of the pops and we know he’s the cash game play, weather permitting (oh, the caveats are strong with this one). If you’re looking to build a healthy cash lineup with Chris, Bolsinger makes sense.
Marco Estrada, SP: $5,500 – If you’re looking for a tourney punt option to get in your Colorado bats, Estrada could be your man. I haven’t seen the studies…heck, I don’t even know if there are studies but I’m going for a few things here with this call. I like facing teams who are leaving Coors. Coors can create a ‘hangover’ effect for hitters. The ball just moves differently in them there mountains than it does elsewhere. Factor in Estrada being at home and the team facing him is traveling east which could create some general fatigue, Marco could be in line for 16+ points which is really all you could ask for at this price.
Dioneer Navarro, C: $4,000 – It’s weird seeing the two Toronto catchers topping the pricing of the C position today despite Yadier Molina and Nick Hundley/Wilin Rosario/Michael McKenry being in Coors but you look at who’s on the mound and you kinda get it. Brad Hand as a lefty pitching in a park that plays well to righties is pretty much a death trap for him. If you wanna know why I’ll be having a Toronto stack out there today, talk to the Hand.
A.J. Pierzynski, C: $3,200 – If he’s in, I just don’t think Kennedy is over his issues vs lefties yet and having him away from the usually friendly confines of Petco makes me even more intrigued. Consider this a hat tip to playing Freddie Freeman while we’re at it.
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B: $4,900 – You’ll need to check and see if he’s back in the lineup after a cortisone shot kept him out on Sunday. Given his recent play and missing yesterday, he might be the lowest-owned play from the Toronto stack out of the bunch. And since we’re here, let’s get it over with: Joey Bautista and Josh Donaldson are in play. Like ya didn’t already know…
Evan Gattis, 1B: $3,800 – If ya wanna get contrarian, we know Gattis loves him some wrong-handedness at the dish. Yes, yes, it’s Chris Sale but at this price, it only takes one four-bagger to cash.
Mark Reynolds, 1B/3B: $3,300 – So Kolten Wong is $4,800 ‘because Coors’ and Mark Reynolds is the same price as Jeff Baker ‘because Coors’? Got it.
Brandon Phillips, 2B: $3,700 – Not sure what B-Phun has been putting in his tap water of late but methinks he’s found the fountain of youth. He’s been batting lead off and gets the platoon advantage against Hamels. And since I’d like to be like Fruit of the Loom and keep this brief, Brian Dozier against a lefty at home at $4,600 is a great play if you’re paying up. 2B continued? I think not…
Todd Frazier, 1B/3B: $4,500 – I know you may think I’m suggesting a Reds stack but I’m really not. That said, you Frazier at home vs a lefty is very much sex panther: 60% of the time it works…every time.
Pedro Alvarez, 1B/3B: $3,800 – PNC Park does Pedro zero favors in terms of his power game but you wanna know who does? Jimmy Nelson. On the year, Nelson is sporting a 6.24 FIP and a .537 slugging percentage against southpaws. Consider this a side glance to Gregory Polanco ($4,400) as well.
Carlos Correa, SS: $3,600 – Got the call up today. I know, I know, it’s against Chris Sale. If you wanna pay $4,900 for either Troy Tulowitzki, Jhonny Peralta, or Jose Reyes, you’re more than welcome to. I’m just here trying to give you a talented alternative.
Justin Upton, OF: $4,500 – There are very few guys I go down narrative street with without being tongue in cheek when I do. Upton just happens to be a guy who seems to play up when facing his former team. From 2013 to 2014, Justin Upton went 15/42 with 3 HRs and a 1.110 OPS against the Diamondbacks. This will be his first game against the Braves since the trade and I expect fireworks.
Chris Colabello, 1B/OF: $3,600 – I feel like Kylie Minogue over here. I just can’t get this stack out of my head, boy, these homeruns are all I think about. Speaking of HRs, Cola has been missing his fizz of late. There should be some pop today.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The weather has got me scurred, y’all. PITvsMIL seems destined for a rainout at the moment while ATLvsSD, CINvsPHI, and CHWvsHOU all have some threatening weather mojo going on. You’re gonna need to stay apprised of the situation as it unfolds and do a little anti-rain dancing while you’re at it. No, what are you doing, that’s a Flashdance! That’s destined to bring on buckets!
Doing Lines In Vegas
The biggest favorite on the day happens to be Marco Estrada (-175) at home vs the Marlins which is surprising given Sale is on the mound. However, he’s seen his line shrink from -172 to -145 which if I’m playing him in cash games at least gives me a little pause considering he’s at home. We also have Mike Bolsinger sitting pretty at -170 in a game with a 7.5 o/u which gives me a little comfort if I’m starting him. To keep with the theme of Miami bats maybe having an off day, Vegas knocked the run total down from 9 to 8.5 so it’s clear they aren’t expecting it to play out in the Marlins favor. They also have what amounts to a pick’em between the Twins and the Royals with an 8.5 o/u. Don’t overlook bats there if you’re trying to fill out your roster and can’t afford the Colorado game.
