Leave it up to me on a day where there’s more than enough good arms out there to make you cringe about a pitching selection. Yes, it’s true. I’m honestly suggesting CC Sabathia on this fine Sunday. You might ask yourself, ‘how did Sky find a way to make this hard on a slate featuring Arrieta, Jo-Fer, and Nola?’. And you might ask yourself, ‘why would you suggest a guy just a few fake internet ducats off from The Dark Knight, Cole, and Gausman?’. You might also ask yourself, ‘why do I feel like Sky is setting me up for a Talking Heads reference in a piece where he references Black Sabbath?’. Cuz it’s the same as it ever was, friends. Really, I’m not suggesting huge upside here nor am I suggesting CC is the best play on the board. So what am I suggesting? Well, for starters the Orioles have been low key bad against lefties so far this year, sitting 25th in wRC+ against southpaws for the year. That in and of itself gives a decent backdrop for me to be intrigued. When you also factor in CC’s pitch selection change this year to make up for the lack of giddyup in his FB – swapping mostly over to the cutter – it makes his gains so far this year not seem too much like a mirage. So in tourneys, look to have yourself some CC shares and pair him with your pick of this pitching litter on a day where he’ll go microscopically owned. But enough about this, let’s talk about that. Here’s my Electric Funeral hot taeks for this Sunday DK slate…
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Scott Kazmir, SP: $10,700 – So, Jose Fernandez and his five straight starts of 30 or more DK points? Pretty sweet. Jake Arrieta’s potential for a no hitter or at the very least a long outing with plenty of K’s to boot? Very high. So why aren’t I talking about them? Well, I just did, silly! They’re expensive. Hella expensive as the kids would say. Or at least the kids I think of, which admittedly might be 25 years old by now. Kids nowadays probably have fresher material, I don’t know. I’m simply here to mention that for cash games, Kaz as your SP1 isn’t a terrible way to diversify, save cash, and keep upside on your side as the Braves are dead last in wRC+ against lefties for the year with a 23.4% K rate to boot.
Matt Wisler, SP: $8,900 – I know, what an about face. Here’s your Mr. Krabs meme to show your feels on this. For tourneys, you go against the grain and Kaz should be a popular get. With that said, Los Doyers over their last 7 have the second worst wRC+ (worst being the Braves…because duh) while K’ing at a 25.6% clip. All the while, Wisler has been no slouch himself, tallying three straight games with seven Ks prior to his last outing against the Giants.
Drew Smyly, SP: $8,300 – Sticking with the lefty theme which I swear to you isn’t me just not researching past fangraphs’ team stats page vs lefties (editor’s note: it totally is; another editor’s note: I’m the editor; more editor’s notes: so you gotta ask yourself, am I trolling you, just being meta, or both?). Smyly has been a dog turd on concrete on a hot summer’s day of late so this is really a tourney only call here but with the Twins 27th worst against lefties so far this year with a 24% K rate against southpaws, this might be the start that turns this frowny Emoticon upside down.
Jon Gray, SP: $8,100 – The last time Gray faced the Padres in Petco, he went 6, K’d 11, and only walked one. These are the kinds of things that happen to you when you’re just 4 points above the Braves in wRC+ for league worst against righties. To be fair, we’d all talk about Gray a lot more if half his games weren’t played at Coors, methinks, but the reality is this is a hard matchup to pass up. If you’re dead set on Jo-Fer or Arrieta as your SP1 in cash, Gray makes for a decent SP2 without breaking your bank entirely.
Matt Harvey, SP: $7,500 – ‘Harvey is only 7.5K. I can pair him with Arrieta and just chillax’. The name and the price scream high ownership. Not that that’s the wrong thing, just not something to chase in tourneys. Don’t be sheeps, peeps.
Patrick Corbin, SP: $5,500 – So hear me out. Corbin isn’t as bad as he’s shown so far. Maybe he wasn’t as good as the numbers suggested last year, but I’m just saying he’s not a near 5.00 ERA guy. Obviously tourney only here but over the last 7 games, there’s two teams with a 30%+ K rate: The Dbacks and the Cubs. I wouldn’t bank on the win, but there’s still 20+ point potential here and the ownership will be nonexistent with him opposing Arrieta.
Chris Iannetta, C: $3,500 – Really, it’s catcher so don’t think too hard about this. I’m really here to talk up the Mariners stack you should be wanting. Gimme some Nelson Cruz, Franklin Gutierrez, and Dae-Ho Lee against soft lefty Derek Holland, please and thank you.
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B: $4,300 – I called a parrot trot on Friday, I got a parrot trot. Let’s see if I can go 2/2 on this. With a lefty on the mound and with the calendar flipped to June, methinks we see some bigger numbers coming from Edwin sooner rather than later.
Matt Adams, 1B: $3,500 – You’re right, I don’t normally go this deep on 1B but I think this warrants attention. Don’t let Peavy’s last two starts lull you into a false sense of hope. Those starts came against the Padres and the Braves, i.e. the two of the worst offensive teams in baseball. That ain’t me being mean, it’s just me stating the facts via stats, ma’am. Matt may require more cup holders than a mini-van, but that’s just more to love. He went deep last night, let’s see if he can bomb one out again. Oh and if you wanna stack Cards, you have my ok go on that front.
Jose Altuve, 2B: $4,800 – Know what I love besides sunsets and long walks on the beach, just as my Tinder account says? Attacking pitchers in their first start off the DL. The Astros bats have heated up of late and Altuve is like ‘it’s about time, you guys!’. Fo’really, I expect an Astros stack to go off. Gimme some George Springer, Carlos Correa, Colby Rasmus, and El Oso Blanco Evan Gattis today and if you’re feeling frisky, some Jason Castro and/or Tony Kemp if he’s in the lineup.
Jimmy Paredes, 2B: $3,200 – Obviously this is a ‘check the lineups for this one’ call, but if the Phillies wise up and go lefty heavy against Wily Peralta, we could have a beautiful offensive explosion in Philly today. I wouldn’t go stacking here, but I’d consider parts like Odubel Herrera or maybe Tommy Joseph.
Jung-Ho Kang, 3B: $3,700 – Kang…he’s so hot right now…Kang…he’s too cheap and I see no reason to spend anywhere else today with everyone else in the nosebleed territory.
Trea Turner, 2B/SS: $3,800 – Get your Trea fix while you still can. You know Dusty won’t quit on Espinosa. If Dusty had his way, every day would be Veteran’s Day.
Jordy Mercer, SS: $2,800 – He’s been ‘not so good’ of late but with a lefty on the mound, he’ll likely sneak up in the lineup and provide some cap relief if you’re hurting on that front.
Nomar Mazara, OF: $3,900 – He’s priced lower than Shin-Soo Choo and he’s still on the DL. He’s on pace for 30 bombs if given a full season. Given the huge amount of outfielders priced around 5K today, I’ll take this relief point.
JD Martinez, OF: $3,600 – Look who’s heating up as summer hits…Just Dongs gets a tough lefty today in Quintana but he got one of those yesterday. His name was Chris Sale. Just Dongs just donged. End of story.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Whether we like it or not, weather looks like it might have a say today. Games with thunderstorm and precipitation threats: CLEvsKC, DETvsCWS, PHIvsMIL, and BALvsNYY. Be leery, be wary, be aware and make sure to check in with your favorite DFS weather people right up to lock.
Doing Lines In Vegas
So that Arrieta guy and the Cubs…yeah, they’re heavily favored, sitting at -300 on the day. I mean, it’s no Kershaw line of -400 but what can you do? Vegas has some strong opinions about pitchers and teams today, giving Roark and the Nationals a -180 against the Reds, Kluber and the Indians the same against the Royals, and Cole and his Pirates a -170 against the Angels. On a day with such good pitching, it’s a surprise not to see some lower o/u across the board. If you’re playing it safe, MIAvsNYM, LADvsATL, and DETvsCWS all come in under 8. Until Vegas knows which way the wind blows (literally), we won’t know anything about the o/u on the Cubs game. Sorry fam. If you’re looking for some highs, TEXvsSEA tops the charts at 9.5, followed by BOSvsTOR, MINvsTB, and CINvsWAS at 9.