Hi there! I’m the new Saturday Draft Kings guy, and I’ll be helping you make millions BILLIONS of dollars on DraftKings. Anyway enough about me, let’s get in to this. It’s lefty ace day! We have Kershaw, Price, and Sale (and Kuechel, if you consider him an ace… I mean he did win a Cy Young) all pitching today. That’s why I’m here to talk to you about the soft throwing and soft looking righty, Bartolo Colon. What’s in that belly and how is he still pitching effectively in the MLB? My guess is there’s a lot of cheese cake, pizza, and pastrami. Tonight Big Bart gets to pitch against the Padres. If it weren’t for Atlanta, the Padres would be the worst team against RHP. His last outing vs Atlanta he threw 8 scoreless with 7 Hits, 7 K, and 0 BB. That outing added up to 31.8 DraftKings points. The thing about the Padres is that they strike out and don’t walk. Big Bart has struck out 28 and only walked 3. The big man doesn’t cut corners…he paints them with his 2-seamer. Early on this season, he’s painting corners and generating the most swings and misses that he has since 2004. This seems like a solid match up for the 42 year old, but like that belly, it may explode at any time. Rostering him is only going to run you $7,300. This will save you some money to spend on one of those lefty ace’s or some big bats. All right Razzballers, I give you the rest of my picks:
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David Price, SP: $10,800 – Okay here’s one of those lefties I mentioned. His velocity may be down but his strikeout rate is up. He’s getting a lot of swings and misses on his changeup this season. Price gets to face the old and broken Yankees, who are hot garbage against lefties. Price is going to be highly owned, but I like him more than the other lefty ace’s today for his price.
Johnny Cueto, SP: $9,900 – He’s facing off against Jonathan Gray. Gray has been striking batters out, but isn’t going very deep into games. The Giants, on the other hand, haven’t been striking out and have been taking walks. If the Giants can work the pitch count of Gray and get into the miserable Rockies bullpen, it should help Cueto get the win.
Jimmy Nelson, SP: $8,400 – Ground ball pitchers have fared well against the Reds. The Reds have faced off against 7 pitchers with a ground ball rate of 50% or more. In those appearances, the pitchers averaged 7 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 6 K, 2 BB. One of those games happens to be Jake Arrieta’s No-No. Jimmy Nelson is no Jake Arrieta, but he’s has been generating ground balls and soft contact.
Stephen Vogt, C: $3,900 – Wright has served up 3 homers to lefties this season. Vogt bats left and his middle name is GUY! #FunFacts
Jason Castro, C: $3,000 – Castro has been hot this past week. He’s had 2 homers and a 1.512 OPS. The guy throwing the ball to him will be Nate Karns, who has been getting hit hard and deep. Karns has given up 5 homers and has an average exit velocity of 92.1, which is 11th highest amongst SP.
Freddie Freeman, 1B: $3,900 – Remember just above this, when I said Karns was getting hit hard and deep. Well, Shelby Miller is getting hit even harder and deeper. He’s given up 6 HR, has an average exit velocity of 92.8, and the highest average distance per hit at 267 feet.
Ryan Howard, 1B: $3,600 – Koehler gave up 16 HR to lefties last season. Use Howard before his 36 year old body starts to break down this season.
Jose Altuve, 2B: $5,000 – A big price to pay for the little guy. That’s $1,000 per foot! Karns has given up more homers to righties in his career on less innings pitched than to lefties. And the little guy has smashed 7 homers off RHP this season.
Rougned Odor, 2B: $3,900 – Rougned Odor, not to be confused with his younger brother Rougned Odor, has 4 multi-hit games in his last 6. He’s been batting in at the top of the order, and in what should be a higher scoring game, I smell points coming for Odor.
Derek Dietrich, 2B/3B: $3,200 – Since the drug bust/Dee Gordon suspension, Dietrich is batting .316. His bat has some pop and Hellickson gives up homers.
Brandon Drury, 3B/OF: $2,200 – Both Drury and Jake Lamb are good options for tonight. Drury is cheaper, while Lamb has the lefty-righty match-up. Take your pick. I can’t make every decision for you!
Carlos Correa, SS: $4,400 – 3 things everyone has been talking about: 1) Drake released a new album. 2) Carlos Correa is very good at baseball. 3) I’m not saying. You should know what it is…everyone’s talking about it! Carlos went deep yesterday. Go back and look what I said about Karns with my Castro pick. I have a feeling Carlos will be going Back to Back.
Brad Miller, SS: $3,100 – The Rays are up against Jared Weaver, or which most teams consider – batting practice. Humming “fastballs” across the plate at 83 MPH, Miller could take one for ride. He hit all 11 of his homers last year off RHP. He also has steals potential, especially against weaver who’s allowed 47 SB in his past 2 season.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF: $5,200 – The most expensive OF on the day for good reason. 7 HR in the past 11 games. Hellickson gave up 3 HR his last outing. The question is not “will Stanton homer,” but “how many homers?”
Andrew McCutchen, OF: $4,500 – This is not the Adam Wainwright we once knew. Strikeouts are down, walks are up, and he has already served up 4 homers. McCutchen at this price feels like a steal.
George Springer, OF: $4,300 – And this concludes your Astros stack.
Corey Dickerson, OF: $3,300 – It’s been a little cold in Tampa to start the season for Corey. Dickerson has only been making contact on 69% of pitches in the strike zone, compared to the league average of 86%. Have no fear, Weaver is here! Dickerson will have lots of time to see the pitch as it comes in at 83 MPH.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
A couple games in the early slate may be impacted by weather. The start of the TEX/DET game have storm warnings, which may drag on the whole game or cause a delay. Skies are not looking pretty in KC/CLE and MIL/CIN either, as storms are a brewin’ in Cincy and Cleveland. Both games have a 50/50 chance of thunderstorms all game long. If you are going with my Nelson pick, keep a close eye on on the weather. Refresh the DFS weather twitter all day and stay up to date.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Fattest line of the day goes to TEX/DET at 9, with TEX as the favorite at -125. Again, make sure to check to weather before selecting players from this game. We have 4 games with over/unders of 8.5, which are PIT/STL, MIL/CIN, OAK/BAL, and SEA/HOU. That A$tro$ $tack should pay off with that 8.5 O/U and -150 favorite. Lowest totals of 7 belong to NYM/SD and MIN/CWS. Sale (-200) and Kershaw (-180) are you’re top dogs for the day.
Good luck, comrades, and may the odds be ever in your favor!
