Well, here we are. The official 2nd half of the season has arrived, and we hope to cash some big tickets in DFS. Big trades should be just around the corner, but Tuesday should still be business as usual as the Sellers look for their best offers. Speaking of which I think the Red Sox may have become a seller over the last few weeks. The staff is just too hurt and too old and too crappy to keep up in a crowded AL Wild Card race. The other Sox, the Pale ones I think became a buyer, in an AL Central where they still have the most talented roster when healthy.
With six playoff teams in each league, it really limits the potential amount of teams looking to bolster their minor league system. Right now in the AL, I count 8 Buyers, 6 Sellers, and 1 Holder (Baltimore). In the NL I count 8 buyers and 7 sellers, so it should be an entertaining next few weeks. Speaking of entertaining onto Tuesday’s DFS plays!
I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main evening slate on Tuesday, July 26th, 2022. If you play on DraftKings, it is a 13-game slate starting at 6:05 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you play on Fanduel I encourage you to sign up for the DFS tools to help you make the best decisions for your lineups on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo.
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Spencer Strider, SP: $8,700. Strider had a rough outing last time out vs the Nationals, and all of a sudden Josiah Gray costs $500 more at DraftKings. I don’t get it. I like Gray, but he gets the Dodgers tomorrow. Strider goes up against the Phillies, and while Kyle Schwarber is intimidating, the rest of the Phils haven’t been. They just scored 7 runs in 3 games while getting swept by the Cubs, and have only scored 35 runs in their last 12 games. Strider has a 3.03 ERA, but his xFIP says he has actually been unlucky. Since he strikes out almost 14 batters per 9 innings he is a huge value here. My only concern is that he will likely be on a pitch/innings limit as we go through the second half, but I am hoping the Braves wait until August to start that.
Shane McClanahan, SP: $10,300. I really wanted to look for some value here and load up on some bats. I will play Mike Clevinger in some tournaments, but I can’t pass on “Sugar” Shane here. Since the calendar turned to May he hasn’t allowed 3 ER in an outing. In the same span he has only struck out less than seven batters in 2 of 13 starts. Add in the fact that the Orioles strike out at the 6th highest rate in MLB and I gotta play him. Oh and check out the Park Metrics on Home Runs at Camden this year with the fences moved back… https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-venue?venueId=2
Christian Bethancourt, C: $2,500. My usual Plug and Play catcher for DFS shows itself in Bethancourt who has been alternating starts with Francisco Mejia. He gets a match-up with Spenser Watkins who is due for some major regression.
Jose Miranda, 3B: $3,200. The Brewers bullpen has been solid, but the key pieces have had a workout this weekend in Milwaukee against the Rockies. Ethan Small will go for the Brewers in his second career start. I think Small is a front-line starter of the future, but I only think he goes 4 IP max on Tuesday night, and then the Brewers will be into that depleted bullpen. As for Miranda, he has 6 Home Runs in 127 plate appearances dating back to June 3rd, and he has raised his average to .267 and his OPS to .766. Those numbers are comparable to Alex Bregman who is $1,600 more on Tuesday night.
Miguel Sano, 1B: $2,200. Taking a shot on Sano in his return and his .093 Batting average. The Twins had to activate him Monday or get his permission to extend his rehab assignment. Since he is up and Buxton is hurt I think he gets the start at DH. He has 5 Home Runs in the minors since his rehab started in 45 plate appearances.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B: $5,100. If you don’t like Sano or if he doesn’t end up in the lineup go this route. You’ll have the adjust one of the expensive OF plays. No team has had hotter bats than the Blue Jays since coming back from the break. Their combined team OPS is up to .771 trailing only the Yankees and the Dodgers. Andre Pallante has been more than expected for the Cardinals, but he doesn’t strike out many batters and will be missing his starting infield corners in Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt due to lack of vaccinations. Vlad hasn’t hit for much power lately, but has 5 multi-hit efforts in his last 6 and looks locked in.
Luis Rengifo, 2B: $3,500. In the month of July Rengifo has been Renfuego. He has only one hitless game this month and continues to hit 3rd or 4th for the Angels. While that’s not as exciting as it would be if Mike Trout were in the lineup, it still speaks volumes about his approach at the plate. He feels like a possible 20/10 kind of guy. Hopefully, the future is Tuesday vs Jackson Kowar who will make his first start this season. (Its also possible Angel Zerpa gets called back up for a spot start) Last year as a starter he had a 11.27 ERA, so I think the Angels make some noise Tuesday night.
Carlos Correa, SS: $4,800. For many of the same reasons as Miranda I am on Correa Tuesday. He’s hit safely in 7 of 8 games.
Aaron Judge, OF: $6,000. Yes, he is chalky, but he also has 2 Home Runs in 7 career At-bats against Taijaun Walker. He also has 9 hits including 4 Home Runs since coming back from the break.
Kyle Garlick, OF: $3,000. Garlick has the same match-up with Ethan Small, and he will be in every single one of my lineups. He should be starting with Buxton Out. This season he has 5 Home Runs in 49 ABs vs left-handed pitching this year. Let’s just call him Aaron Judge Lite as far as Tuesday night goes.
Shohei Ohtani, OF $5,800. Ohtani has struggled in July batting .213 with 3 Home Runs. Turns out not having Mike Trout batting next to you in the lineup brings you down. I like the match-up on Tuesday however with Kowar. Less so if it’s Zerpa. And honestly, as I mentioned above if Sano doesn’t play I’m gonna push the reset button on this whole thing anyway.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Magic 8 Ball told me his sources say no when I asked about any impactful weather Tuesday night.
Doing Lines In Vegas
I did mention I do a bit of Sports Handicapping. Follow me on Twitter @TheGreat Knoche for more info. I’ll give out a Free Play here every Tuesday, but you can find all my free and premium picks for MLB and a few other sports at The Odds Breakers