Tyler Glasnow has a lot going for him tonight.
He’s striking out right-handed hitters at a 35% clip this season. The Yankees, who have a 24% K rate against right-handed pitching over the last month, will likely send him six righties for Glasnow to feast upon. Aaron Judge has returned from injury, but he’s usually good for a whiff or two himself along with whatever 450-foot bombs he might hit.
What happens when a high-strikeout pitcher meets a high-strikeout offense? Spoiler alert: a lot of strikeouts.
Tyler Glasnow (P, $10,500) will be a priority for me tonight on the 9-game DraftKings slate, which locks at 7:05 p.m, ET. Let’s see who else we can jam in tonight:
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The Core (Players who will appear in most of my lineups):
Nick Pivetta, P: $6,600 – I recommended Pivetta last week but backed off when the Red Sox announced an opener would start instead. Pivetta came on for 5 shutout innings of relief, delivering 23 DraftKings points and probably winning somebody out there a slate. Pivetta was supposed to be yesterday’s long reliever, but the Red Sox decided to have him start today instead. Assuming they don’t jerk him around any further, I’m locking him in at that price against a Mariners team that continues to struggle against right-handed pitching.
Luis Campusano, C: $3,100 – Let’s talk about the Coors game. The Padres had a ridiculous 7.09 team total at the time I wrote this. Also at that time there appeared to be a 60+% chance of rain. I generally like to fade road offenses at their first game at Coors. I don’t have any hard stats on this, but they seem to fail a lot more often than they succeed. That said, if it looks dicey as heck at game time, or is late-started, and it appears the field is shying away, I may actually pivot onto the Padres in the hope of catching a premium stack at low ownership.
Carlos Santana, 1B: $3,600 – The old man has to be pumped after being plucked from the lowly Royals and dropped straight into a pennant race. Even better, the Brewers have him batting third. Tonight he faces Jake Irvin, who gave up five home runs over his past two starts.
Brandon Lowe, 2B: $4,300 – German has been hit or miss this season but through it all he’s given up hard hits at an alarming 50% clip. His fly ball numbers are significantly worse against lefties (34%), which is bad news at Yankee Stadium. Lowe has multiple hits including a home run in three of his past five games.
Isaac Paredes, 3B: $3,800 – He’s not a lefty, but Paredes has plenty of big fly ability with his all-or-nothing pull approach.
Wander Franco, SS: $5,700 – I don’t normally like to stack against the Yankees and their bullpen, but Luis Severino failed to get out of the fourth last night, forcing two of their better middle relievers to throw a lot of pitches.
Sal Frelick, OF: $3,800 – The Brewers are my other favorite stack tonight. They face a homer-prone starter and a terrible bullpen and get a park upgrade. Most importantly, they’re very affordable on a night where we’d like to spend up on quality pitchers and supporting hitters.
Ronald Acuna Jr., OF: $6,600 – This guy would be my supporting hitter of choice. He’s locked in right now, with seven hits, a homer, three steals and a 3:1 walk to strikeout ratio over his last three.
The Fades (Highly-owned players I will mostly avoid):
Jeremy Pena, SS: $4,300 – Noah Syndergaard’s 7.16 ERA is an easy target but let’s pump the brakes here. His xERA is 5.67, and his SIERA is a mere 4.70, which is actually a hair better than that of his opponent, J.P. France (4.85). Syndergaard is much more effective against right-handers, and Pena is weaker against same-hand pitching. All this is to say that I’ll be fading the very popular Astros full stack tonight, though I will try to get to some strong-side one-offs and mini-stacks in the forms of Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker.
The Pivots (low-owned plays I’ll take a chance on):
Corbin Burnes, P: $10,600 – Burnes has reeled off five straight quality starts with K counts ranging from 6 to 13. He faces the Nationals, who hit for decent contact (19% K rate), but not a lot of production (88 wRC+). It’s tough to play Glasnow and Burnes together outside of cash games, but I do expect Burnes to be the lower-owned of the two, and he’s quite capable of outscoring Glasnow on any given slate.
Dominic Canzone, OF: $2,100 – If you need a value bat, here’s one who’s popping a little on our DFSBot. Canzone put up a 1.065 OPS in the minors this season and is holding his own so far in the bigs. He’ll likely bat fifth in a road matchup tonight.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Doing Lines In Vegas
The Angels’ pen has been dreadful as of late and their best guy, Carlos Estevez, probably isn’t even available as he threw 34 pitches last night. I’d be all over the Braves as a stack on DraftKings if they weren’t cost-prohibitive, but I’ll take a shot with them on the runline tonight.
By this point it shouldn’t shock you that I’m on the Rays tonight, and I’ll take shots with them on both the moneyline and runline.
With the trade deadline looming, it’s more important than ever to keep up on the latest news and double-check your lineups prior to lock. I’ll also pop in with an update later today. Good luck, everyone!