MidWeek MarmosDad is back! Happy almost-all-star-break, everyone! It’s been a pretty eventful week with all of the all-star announcements, home run derby news, and of course some soul-crushing injuries to report. None seem as big as Wander’s hamate pulling a checkmate on the youngster’s season. BUT don’t worry there’s a nice DFS replacement for him today along with the other names and numbers that MarmosDad throws your way each week.
One thing that I noticed with our games today…there’s a lot of potential for some really rough SP numbers. I was going to roll with a Public Enemy title of “Blackburn Steele In The Hour Of ChAos”, then decided to check both Paul Blackburn and Justin Steele’s game logs. I opened, and read it, it said they were suckers. Could Mike Minor pose a … minor threat to Luis Severino at Yankee stadium? I’m avoiding that punk today as well. Giolito? More like Gio-lit-up for the last couple of months.
So I settled on a sparkling SP in this sea of muck. In the muddiness of today’s 4+ ERAs and lofty SLG% against, Shane McClanahan (DK: $10,000) has been nothing short of one of the biggest breakout starting pitchers this season. In 104.1 IP, McClanahan has put up a 141:19 K:BB ratio, and has given up 4 or less hits with one ER per game over his last 6 starts. Streamonator has him as the top option at 55.0 today, and although he’ll be widely owned, getting in on this ace sets you up for a good DFS base.
For the rest of this Wednesday, we’re looking at another 15 game schedule that starts early with Seattle at Washington (12:05 PM ET), then runs through a few afternoon games to finish off with last week’s SP pick Cristian Javier at double all-star Shohei Ohtani starting at 9:38 PM ET.
But as always, last and never least, just a reminder that a lot of the notes that I take and share here are influenced by Rudy’s Streamonator and Hittertron, as well as the DFS tools available right here on Razzball. The DraftKings/FanDuel lineup optimizer is a great way to build multiple lineups with these picks to see how to best enhance your selections and get more bang for your DFS buck! You can access all of this information by signing up for Rudy’s tools using the DFSBot link below.
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Jon Gray, SP: (DK) $7,700 – I was all set to throw Lucas Giolito here but like I mentioned in the intro, his last 4 games were pretty rough, so let’s pivot to Jon Gray at home. Over his last 6 starts, Gray has managed to allow 3 or less ER and rack up at least 7 K’s (in 4 of those). This one seems like a perfect storm for Jon Gray today. Oakland still sits at the bottom of the MLB rankings in hitting, Gray’s K% over those 6 starts sits at 10.8, and his xFIP in that small sample is 2.71. Hittertron only has two TEX hitters projected over 10 points for this matchup (Seager at 12.9 and Semien at 10.1), but Gray might not need much offense to secure a W today.
Alejandro Kirk, C: (DK) $4,800 – I was all set to run our catcher-eligible darlings, MJ Melendez or Cal Raleigh here for their reduced price tags, but Melendez faces a tough LHP in Tarik Skubal and Raleigh’s game starts too early (12:05 PM ET) to get that in, so we’re headed north. Alejandro Kirk is still basking in the happiness of his first all-star game selection (and first Blue Jay catcher to ever have been elected a starter). His recent numbers definitely support the vote. Kirk has hit safely in 7 out of 10 games in July and sports a much better line against RHP than LHP. He’s slated to face Zach Wheeler today but at $4,800 I’m still rolling him (figuratively) out there.
Isaac Paredes, 1B/2B: (DK) $4,500 – I keep expecting Paredes to move up around the $5000 mark each week, but always seem to have to scroll a bit to get to him in the DK list. That’s a good thing as long as he continues to produce like he did in June. Paredes had a .712 SLG for the month, and has managed to hammer out 3 XBH in his 9 July games. It looks like he’ll face Josh Winckowski today at home (where he’s hit 8 HR on the year).
Jonathan Aranda, 2B: (DK) $2,000 – Quite possibly the only good thing to come out of Wander Franco’s 6-8 week hamate surgery recovery is the recall of Jonathan Aranda. Aranda was slotted in as the cleanup hitter Monday night and promptly hammered out two hits with an RBI. With a 19.7 K% and .546 SLG% in AAA, Aranda has the hit tool to at least hold the fort down until Brandon Lowe returns in a couple of weeks. At the rookie price of $2,000 he’s a great value pick today.
Tim Anderson, SS: (DK) $5,600 – Here’s where we can spend a few of those DK dollars we saved on our 2B. As much of a top-tier talent as Tim Anderson is at home, he’s hitting 50 points higher on the road. Aaron Civale faces him today (4+ ERA over his last 4 starts), so be comfortable slotting the all-star SS into DFS lists this evening but don’t expect him to say anything nice about our next guy here…
Josh Donaldson, 3B: (DK) $4,400 – I had originally slotted Machado in as the top Hittertron player today (76.8), but didn’t want to repeat too much of Knoche’s picks from yesterday. No problem! I figured it would be simple to just switch to rookie Nolan Jones (DK: $2,000). He’s been on fire since his recall on July 8th (hits in 4 out of 5 games with 3 XBH), but DraftKings lists him with OF-only eligibility. Strike two, I guess. When in doubt, head back to the Yankees if they’re facing a lefty. Josh Donaldson’s splits aren’t exactly what you’d expect from most RH hitters facing a guy like Minor, but he has had 3 HR in his last 5 games so riding this hot streak is advisable.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF: (DK) $5,400 – We can always look at Aaron Judge as a major chalk play in any DFS lineup, but he almost always comes with a top price tag. With Stanton, we’re getting a similar potential for power but at a discounted rate. In theory, he should also be in fewer DFS lineups than his Tower of Power partner in the NY OF. Like Donaldson, Stanton has had better numbers vs RHP this year, but with Mike Minor serving up a .660 SLG% to go along with a .432 wOBA against RH hitters, it looks like a Yankee stack makes sense today.
Trent Grisham, OF: (DK) $3,000 – Hittertron absolutely loves the Padres in their visit to Colorado this week. With a few other names to select from, I settled on Trent Grisham here. Just like my other second OF picks these past few weeks Grisham likely won’t go 5-for-5 tonight but he has some power and some speed to burn if he can get on base. Chad Kuhl’s statcast page is definitely colored ‘cool’, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Grisham (and his teammates) manage some hard hits off of the Rockies SP fastball and slider today.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains…
The only place with a greater than 10% chance of rain today is Toronto, but the dome will take care of that trouble. Look for some wind blowing out to help those San Diego bats in Colorado too (11.0 mph).
Doing Lines In Vegas…
A couple of stubborn picks here for “underdogs”, but I’d take Skubal (+100) at Brady Singer and throw some dough on Baltimore (+105) to continue their hot streak at Wrigley.
For O/U, give me the over of 7.5 (as of last night) for two top 10 offenses in Minnesota and Milwaukee. As an under play Javier vs. Ohtani feels like it could be under 7.5, especially with some injuries in those lineups.
Best of luck in the DFS plays today! If you have any questions, shoot me a note on Twitter @MarmosDad!