If you’ve got a younger sibling, you may remember those days when you’d take advantage of your physical/athletic superiority over them. You’d feel really big and bad if you could out-wrestle them; you’d let them get leads on you when playing sports at home, only to come back and take the lead and win at the end, crushing their hopes that they’d finally take down big bro (or big sis). But was there ever a time when little bro/sis finally grew and improved enough that they were the ones doing the whupping? If you can empathize with that, you know how poor Austin Nola must feel now that Aaron Nola (FD $10,300/DK $10,300) is a bad, bad man.
In fact, that’s probably how most of the Padres will feel after this outing. Fernando Tatis Jr. still hasn’t been cleared to swing a bat, and stalwart 3B Manny Machado is still out with an ankle injury, leaving…who, exactly, to strike fear into Nola? The OF rotation of Jose Azocar and Nomar Mazara? The Padres have done well to stay in contention in the NL West despite dealing with some injuries to important people, but Nola is different. In my Top 100 ranks, Nola is elite (top 10%) in four of the six metrics; really, the worst thing you may be able to say about him is he gives up a little too much in-zone contact. But Nola is 30th in MLB in avoiding Hard Contact, and has an absurd 3.2% BB%. When you hit it, you probably won’t hit it hard; he won’t walk you; and he’s going to strike you out about 30% of the time as well. Austin, you’ve got a family emergency today–Aaron’s coming to town.
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Alex Cobb, SP: FD $7,600/DK $8,300 – As mentioned in the comments of my Top 100 starters article, Cobb is elite in xFIP, SIERA and CSW%, and he’s top-20% in K-BB%. He’s pitched so much better the results he’s received, and it’s time the baseball gods start repaying him in his home start vs. Cincinnati and their next-to-last road OPS. That’s worse than the Rockies!
Will Smith, C: FD $2,900/DK $5,600 – Smith’s been slapping the ball around the park the last week, collecting eight hits in his last 22 ABs. He hasn’t accrued a ton of counting stats with them, but that’s more unlucky circumstance, as the Dodgers will be on base and score enough where it’s just a matter of when it’ll be his turn to have people on base in front of him. And I’m not one to start rumors, but I heard his opponent on the mound, Ian Anderson, asked his bald grandpa how far up he goes when washing his face. That’s bulletin board material, Will.
Jared Walsh, 1B: FD $3,100/DK $3,600 – I feel like I constantly pick Jared Walsh as my 1B because I always feel like he’s at a really affordable price for a dude he’s a righty bopper (.830 OPS vs RHPs, 120 points more than vs. LHPs). Walsh has eight hits in his last seven days and Halos fans are hoping Walsh’s Friday night is spent Flexen all over Chris and the Mariners.
Nolan Gorman, 2B: FD $3,100/DK $3,700 – Gorman bounces around the lineup some, but against a RHP usually 2nd or 5th, which are terrific spots for gaining those ABs, runs, and RBI that can propel DFS goodness. Gorman’s hit three HRs over his last 22 ABs, and he’s hosting Kyle Hendricks. Crack open a Busch!
Nolan Arenado, 3B: FD $3,600/DK $5,300 – In this week’s edition of Small Sample Size, Arenado has 37 ABs vs. Kyle Hendricks and has bombed him three times. In this week’s edition of Even Smaller Sample Size, Arenado has three bombs the past 23 ABs, along with five runs and seven RBI. He’s hot and he’s facing a pitcher he traditionally loves to see.
Corey Seager, SS: FD $3,500/DK $5,200 – Seager has a pair of homers over his last seven days, along with six runs scored. “Ma, looks like Corey’s doing that thing again where he’s heating up!” yelled Kyle from his parents’ basement.
Cedric Mullins, OF: FD $3,200/DK $4,700 – Mullins isn’t ripping the ball right now, but he’s still stealing bags (three in his last seven games), leading off, and scoring runs. He’s also facing Michael Kopech, whose Statcast and advanced stats say he should be crashing harder than the U.S. economy. Streamonator has him ranked 9th overall for today’s games.
Julio Rodriguez, OF: FD $3,600/DK $5,500 – What a rookie debut so far for J-Rod, and it just keeps getting better as he’s got 11 hits, a homer, and two bags over his last seven games. It’s just so fun to play him, perhaps because he so often rewards us. Streamonator has J-Rod 12th overall today.
Teoscar Hernandez, OF: FD $3,000/DK $4,900 – To crib Gray, “And Teoscar for the hottest Jay goes to…” Hernandez has three HRs and eight RBI his last seven days. “Houser ‘bout making it four or five HRs?” asks Milwaukee’s Adrian. OK, you drive a hard bargain, but we’ll accept your terms.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
@BallparkWeather tells me that there are no issues outside of some possible showers/storms toward the end of COL @ MIN, but it thinks they will hold off until after the game ends, so we should be full speed ahead for today’s slate.
Stacks on Stacks on Stacks
You could call me crazy for suggesting this, but Detroit is 4th in MLB in OPS the last seven days, and they’re in Arizona facing Merrill Kelly. Javy Baez is scorching, Streamonator likes Riley Greene and Victor Reyes (he’s been leading off) today. Likewise, the Snakes are facing Rony Garcia, so Christian Walker, Alek Thomas, Daulton Varsho and Josh Rojas could be terrific plays as well. Neither of these stacks should cost you a ton of money.
A Rangers stack vs. Washington’s Paolo Espino could be a fun one, with Semien, Seagar, Adolis Garcia, and Ezequiel Duran all being reasonably priced. Texas is 6th in OPS over the last week (facing Zack Wheeler, Kyle Gibson, and Tarik Skubal, who have all had really nice years so far).
