Do you know anybody who tries too hard to be clever? A person who finds exceedingly difficult ways to do things when more easy, direct paths to success are staring them right in the face? That’s what this pitcher pick feels like today. Instead of saying “He’s one of the elite SPs going against perhaps the worst team in baseball,” you try to talk yourself out of it by saying “Yeah but that worst team in baseball just put a 20-spot up the day before.” Perhaps you’ll look at the terrible splits the team has vs. LHPs and say “Yeah, but this pitcher’s opponent just hit lefty Justin Steele so hard that Snapchat will use his busted face as a funny new filter.” Maybe you look upward (no, not to Him, as He has far more to worry about today than your gambling problem) and try to tell yourself a little rain may wash out that pick, and then you’re down a bunch of points to all of the other guys in the DFS tourney. There is more than one way to skin a cat (though I’m not sure why you’d need more than one), so I understand if you try to dodge raindrops, but I’m going to roll with SFG LHP Carlos Rodon (FD: $9,900) today vs. the Cincinnati Reds.

As for Rodon, he’s 5th in MLB in K%, 14th in SwStr%, has an xERA under 3.00, and is suppressing homers at the lowest rate of his career. Do we dare to tempt fate when the winds are blowing out at Great American Launching Pad? We do if he’s pitching against the home team Reds, who are last in the majors in OPS vs LHPs. Rodon is throwing his fastball and slider 95% of the time, and inducing chases on both pitches 38% of the time. Cincy strikes out the 7th most in the majors vs LHPs while only having taken the 16th most ABs vs. LHPs. If the weather permits, there’s too much potential for complete dominance here to choose anybody else for your SP tonight. If you’re too nervous about a possible rainout, skip down to the second recommendation, or perhaps try Shane Bieber vs the Tigers and their MLB-worst OPS vs. RHPs.

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Sean Manaea, SP: FD $9,700/DK $10,000 – Manaea’s xERA is 3.55, he’s rocking the lowest H/9 of his career, the highest K% of his career, and the highest SwStr% of his career, and giving up the least amount of hard contact in his career (except for a brief 29-inning 2019). The biggest knock against him is his career-worst 8% BB%. If you’re trying to save a few bucks on pitching tonight, give Manaea a try-a.

Christian Vazquez, C: FD $2,300/DK $3,100 – Vazquez is slugging .631 over the last week, with 8 hits in his last 19 ABs (one HR). Fenway loves righty hitters, and they love righty-hitting catchers even more when 15 mph winds are blowing out. If he’s in the lineup, Simon says play Vazquez.

Rowdy Tellez, 1B: FD $3,500/DK $4,600 – Tellez is slugging .667 over his last seven days, and he faces Dakota Hudson, who is giving up almost 35% hard contact and is pitching almost a full run better than his xERA (correction begins tonight!). Say howdy to Rowdy and get him in your lineups.

Jean Segura, 2B: FD $3,600/DK $4,900 – Want some fun with crazy small sample size numbers? Forget I even gave you the option to say no. In 16 ABs vs. Carlos Carrasco, Segura has three HRs. Citi has the wind blowing out, and you shouldn’t pregunta (question) Segura.

Rafael Devers, 3B: FD $4,200/DK $5,800 – Hittertron has Raffy ranked 3rd overall today. Devers has left the yard three times in the last week, is facing O’s rookie righty Kyle Bradish and his 24% HR/FB% (twice the league average), and is in Fenway with a strong wind blowing straight out. This matchup gives me Devers Fevers.

Francisco Lindor, SS: FD $3,800/DK $5,500 – Lindor is on an absolute heater the last week, scoring 10 runs, hitting a pair of taters, and knocking in 10. Zach Eflin has had a solid year and Citi Field isn’t terrific for scoring runs, but even though strong winds blowing out aren’t enough to cool down Lindor. Count on Frankie to help you make banky tonight.

Tyrone Taylor, OF: FD $2,600/DK $2,600 – Taylor’s getting serious PT for the Brew Crew, and if he got any hotter, he’d have to take off stuff he really should keep on. In the last seven days, Taylor has three HRs and 10 RBI. I condone you rosterin’ Tyrone.

Cedric Mullins, OF: FD $3,400/DK $4,400 – Another Hittertron play, Mullins is ranked 7th overall. Boston doesn’t play as well for LHBs as it does RHBs, but Pesky Pole is a pretty good target and with the wind blowing out, the odds are a little higher that he can wrap one around it. If he can’t, well, he’s 4th in MLB with 10 swipes, so there’s still scoring potential here even without a dinger. You might be sullen if you don’t roll with Mullin(s) tonight.

Mike Yastrzemski, OF: FD $3,200 – Everybody knows that Joc Pedersen is destroying the baseball, but he’s not been much hotter than his own teammate. Yastrzemski has scored seven runs in the last seven days while posting his own .412/.565/.765 line. I like Mike to strike tonight.

 

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

Strong winds will be blowing straight out in Fenway for Orioles/Red Sox, at Citi Field for Phillies/Mets, and in Oakland for Rangers/A’s. Red light for pitchers, green light for hitters. There is a high P.O.P (Probability of Precipitation) in Cincinnati, Washington, Detroit, and New York, so if taking any of the above picks, understand that weather could be a factor in the playability of those games. I could zag from those picks, but I also wanted to pick the players I wanted. 

 

Doing Lines In Vegas

FanDuel has the O/U of 8 total runs in the Phillies/Mets game, and with those two offenses with that sort of wind blowing out, I’m taking the over.

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MarmosDad
1 month ago

Don’t Pass-trzemski on Yastrzemski! Haha!
Nice writeup here, Hoove.