Happy Hump Day, Razzball DFS’ers!
We have a tough pitching pool to wade through today, so let’s start with an easy one. Zac Gallen (P:$9,800) has been outstanding this season, carrying a solid 26% K rate, a low 5% BB rate, and a tidy 3.31 ERA. The Mets make for an okay matchup in a good pitcher’s park, and tonight that’s enough to sell me on a gallon of Gallen.
Let’s see what else measures up for tonight’s 7-game slate, which locks at 7:07 p.m:
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The Core (Players who will appear in most of my lineups):
Mike Clevinger, P: $7,900 – With his inconsistent nature, Clevinger wouldn’t be my choice for cash games, but his 30-point upside makes him interesting for GPP’s. He gets a similarly inconsistent Royals team, who dropped 11 runs on these White Sox last night but remain the third-worst offense against right-handed pitching (84 wRC+).
Jose Altuve, 2B: $6,400 – and the Astros stack. DFSBot is all over the Astros tonight. I’m hoping the field stays away after back-to-back letdowns against the Athletics. Altuve has a .250 ISO and .423 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season, with just an 18% strikeout rate.
Yoan Moncada, 3B: $3,800 – If you need some salary savings you can drop down from Alex Bregman to Moncada, who faces the Royals in a bullpen game. Moncada has hits in 14 of his last 16 contest, with four homers over that span.
Gavin Sheets, 1B/OF: $2,400 – I’ll add another underpriced White Sox bat in Sheets, who should have the platoon advantage for most of this game. With several hard hit balls over his last few games, Sheets appears to be breaking out of his funk.
Yordan Alvarez, OF: $6,100 – I’m not a big BVP guy, but the Astros have largely had their way with Paul Blackburn. In 12 at bats against Blackburn, Alvarez has four extra base hits including three home runs.
The Fades (Highly-owned players I will mostly avoid):
Hunter Brown, P: $8,200 – This is an “IKB” fade, and no, that doesn’t stand for Isiah Kiner-Balefa. It means, “I know better,” as in, yes, this is a good play on paper, but I’m not playing it because …reasons. Considering Brown’s ability, matchup, and price, optimizers are going to be all over him. I wouldn’t be shocked if he ends up 50% owned in small-field contests. The thing is – he’s not okay right now. His breaking stuff is poor most nights and he’s become one-dimensional, relying on his fastball. That’s a formula even the Athletics can solve. I’ll be taking a stand in GPP tournaments tonight and wearing no Brown.
The Pivots (Low-owned plays I’ll take a chance on):
Blake Snell, P: $10,200 – You know the rule about Blake Snell chalk, as in, don’t play Blake Snell when he’s chalk. I don’t think we’re going to have that problem tonight with Zac Gallen slightly cheaper and in an easier matchup. Regardless of the matchup, Snell always has the upside to win the slate, and I’ll be subbing him in for Gallen in a few lineups.
Tanner Houck, P: $6,800 – Okay, hear me out on this one. Since the start of last season, Houck has just a .246 wOBA and .040 ISO with a 56% ground ball rate against right-handed hitters. That’s 334 plate appearances, so we’re starting to get a decent sample. Houck will likely face seven righties tonight. He’s only a league-average strikeout guy (22%), but the Yankees should help him with that, as they managed to strike out 29 times in yesterday’s doubleheader. Houck doesn’t often go deep in games, but on a tough pitching slate, a solid five innings with six or seven K’s might be all we need.
Shea Langeliers, C: $2,700 – I’m avoiding Hunter Brown, but I’m not going to full-stack against him. The Astros still need to win games, so they’re not likely to leave him out there for an extended shellacking. However, I do like the idea of taking an Athletics one-off or two-man mini-stack. Besides Zack Gelof, everyone is under $3,000. Langeliers has homers in two of his last three contests.
Bo Bichette, SS: $5,300 – Despite the low total, I expect we’ll see some runs in the Rangers/Blue Jays game, as both teams hit lefty pitching well. Bichette is rocking a .216 ISO and .420 wOBA against lefties this season.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
We could see some rain in the Yankees/Red Sox game, so keep an eye on the Boston weather.
Doing Lines In Vegas
As I mentioned, I like the offenses in the Rangers/Jays game. Jordan Montgomery hasn’t been at his as a Ranger. I like the game to go over the 8.0 total, and I also like the Jays to win the game, so I’ll take them on the moneyline.
We have the opposite situation in the Guardians/Giants game. We have two teams that don’t hit lefties very well facing two dynamic lefties, Logan Allen and Kyle Harrison. Give me the under on the 8.5 total.
