Pop quiz: Which MLB team has the worst offense since June 1st?
Give up? It’s the New York Yankees, who come in with a woeful 69 wRC+ for the month.
To make matters worse, their best hitters of late have been Jake Bauers and Billy McKinney, lefties who will face Oakland Athletics southpaw JP Sears tonight if they’re in the lineup at all.
At just $7,100, Sears, who is rocking a 4.3 K/BB rate over that same span, will be a key salary saver for my DFS lineups tonight.
Let’s see what else we can find on Wednesday’s 13-game DraftKings slate, which locks at 7:05 p.m.:
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Slate Overview:
Normally I come to you on Mondays, which tend to be smaller slates. We have a monster slate tonight, and we need to look at it from a more macro perspective. Specifically:
- With 13 games, we can think less about game theory and contrarian plays, and more about just finding the best plays.
- Tonight we have some obvious spots to look for offense. The Astros/Cardinals and Guardians/Royals games will see 100 degree heat. We also have a Coors game featuring the Dodgers.
- By contrast, we have relatively good pitching weather in the east, in Chicago, and on the west coast.
The Core (Players who will appear in most of my lineups):
Blake Snell, P: $10,300 – The conventional wisdom on Snell is that he’s inconsistent, so we shouldn’t play him when he’ll be popular. With four straight thirty-something DK point outings, we might have to re-evaluate Snell, and on a slate with other pitching options, his ownership shouldn’t get out of control.
Aaron Nola, P: $10,400 – One of those options is Nola, who is rounding into form. The wind blowing in at Wrigley always helps.
Freddy Fermin, C: $2,600 – I’ll probably pick a cheap catcher from a 100-degree game and be done with it.
Josh Naylor, 1B: $3.900 – As I write this I don’t yet know who’s starting for the Royals, but I also don’t care. Give me this guy at that price in that weather against that bullpen.
Elly De La Cruz, SS/3B: $5,500 – Shortstop is loaded tonight, so don’t cheap out. Elly’s biggest weakness is the strikeout, but in Kyle Gibson, he’ll see a guy with just an 18% K rate.
J.D. Martinez, OF: $5,200 – and the Dodgers’ stack. They “only” put up five runs last night, but it often takes teams a game to adjust to the altitude.
Manuel Margot, OF: $2,600 – The outfield is a good place to save money tonight. Margot is a 122 wRC+ player in June who can chip in with power and speed.
The Fades (Highly-owned players I will mostly avoid):
Cristian Javier, P: $9,700 – I’m not sure how owned he’ll be, but don’t do this. His velocity is down, and he may have other issues at play. Also a good sell-high candidate for season-long teams.
Maikel Garcia, 3B: $3,100 – The Royals are priced too low for a 100-degree game. You can easily fit five Royals with two top-tier pitchers, but I don’t think that’s the best way to go. The Royals don’t have the kind of home run pop we’re looking for on a big slate, so I’ll be sticking to one-offs and mini-stacks. One I won’t be going to is Garcia. Batting leadoff for $3,100, he will be sure to garner attention.
The Pivots (low-owned plays I’ll take a chance on):
Marcus Semien, 2B: $5,700 – and the Rangers stack. I’m hoping people forget about these guys tonight. Other teams have better hitting conditions, but Texas could still pile up home runs against Joey Wentz and the Tigers bullpen.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Watch the games on the east coast for potential rain.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Despite the low 8.5 total, I still like the Padres/Pirates game to go under. I talked about how well Snell is throwing, and the Padres are fairly weak (95 wRC+) against right-handed pitchers, facing a good one in Mitch Keller.
As I write this, Toronto is favored against the Giants. The Blue Jays are a hot and cold team that are presently cold, and they run into Logan Webb and a tough Giants team. I like the Giants to win here.
Finally, I spoke about how I like Sears against the Yankees. On the other side, Domingo German has surrendered 15 runs in his last two starts. I’ll side with the A’s here.
That’s all for today. As always, check back in the afternoon as I often post updates with relevant information in the comments section.
I’ll be writing for the Wednesday slates for the next few weeks. See you then.
