DFS: In The Beginning, Acknowledge Your Biases And Be Christian

Beginnings are exciting! We “put our best foot forward” and are hopeful to a fault. We also are quick to overreact and “make mountains out of molehills” so as we begin this baseball season, let’s be aware of our biases when settling in to make DFS lineups. My name is Matt (@MatthewPetrich1 on X)  and I have been playing DFS for 10 years now, which means I have had enough success so that my wife doesn’t make me quit. Hopefully, I can be your guide on these Tuesday slates as we play for first place or as close as we can get to that ever-elusive grand prize.

Large slates tend to organically spread out ownership, so I would not be overly concerned with that if playing all 13 games starting at 6:35 ET, however DKs main slate is only 9 games. Let’s take a closer look at the 9 game slate. It is more likely that one stack carries the day, but this is a tough slate to navigate and you do not need to put all those eggs into one basket to win.  The best teams to look at today are PHI, BAL, MIA (all off the DK main slate) and CHC where the cold and rainy weather should help limit how far the ball will travel. You can feel free to explore other options and not feel like a fish.

It’s possible that Framber Valdez continues to struggle with his command since his pitches have been moving a lot differently. He could get  lit up by TOR. LAD, SD and ATL all have elite offenses and can do some damage in their home parks, but they are all expensive to stack. ARIs Christian Walker and Ketel Marte have a decent matchup vs. Nestor Cortes and the NYY bullpen. Zac Gallen’s velo was down in his first start and his 4 seam took a big step back in effectiveness bringing the big NYY bats into play. Gallen was a ? to start the year due to his increased usage in 2023 and into the playoffs.

I would encourage stacking 3-4 players from 2 separate teams and including 1-2 one off plays. Start with the teams mentioned above or the players you like below and start building a lineup that can put up a tournament winning score.

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Shane Bieber, SP: $8,800 – Bieber did everything he could do vs. an overmatched A’s lineup. The “he went to driveline” narratives were not misleading when it comes to Bieber’s renewed approach. His velo was up a tick, which is important to him and could increase as the year goes on. His curveball and change experienced positive shape metrics changes. Bieber will be on the road again in another friendly pitcher’s park (T-Mobile Park) facing the Mariners who have struck out 33% of the time and only walked 4% to start the year.

Yu Darvish, SP: $8,200 – The Cardinals are never going to be an easy team to target pitchers against unless they are missing a few of their better offensive players and one of their studs, Arenado, is struggling to get going to start the year. Ding and ding, such is the scenario. Darvish is entering his 3rd start so he is ahead of most other SPs at this point and his arsenal is as good as it’s been in recent years. If he can push his pitch count higher, he could be in line for a tournament winning start here. 

Yanier Diaz, C/1B: $3,300 – Diaz is mentioned here because he is priced below where he will be later in the season. I wish I had the Monday write up, because you would have gotten his 2 homer game from Monday as well. His HH% and batting order position demand a higher price tag. Houston won’t score 10 runs vs. Berrios, but Diaz is a good play at his price tag even with a capable pitcher in Berrios on the mound.

Christian Walker, C/1B: $5,000 – I would be more willing to play Christian Walker as part of an ARI stack considering his price tag and the abundance of good 1B plays. He stands out because he is consistently good at making hard contact. An added bonus is his patience vs. lefty pitchers. If Cortes gets wild, Walker can take a walk which is a real bonus as part of a stack.

Ketel Marte, 2B: $5,200 – I wouldn’t mind punting this position in order to save salary, but Marte stands out as a great stacking partner in an ARI stack. He excels vs. LHPs (131 wRC+ vs. 105 in his career) and this matchup is not daunting vs. Cortes and a questionable NYY bullpen.

Matt Chapman, 3B: $4,200 – Smoking the ball…check, Good park for power…check, Winnable matchup…check. Three checks is better than three strikes and Chapman should be able to avoid the Ks vs. bulk reliever Yarbrough. He is a delightful add at such a reasonable salary.

Anthony Volpe, SS: $3,800 – There is usually a lot to like at shortstop, and while Volpe is a fine pick for his on base skills (and hopefully his SB ability), his upside is limited by his batting order position down in the NYY lineup and his line drive approach (not gonna produce a lot of HRs). I also like him as part of a stack more than as a one off.

Seiya Suzuki, OF: $4,400 – The batted ball skills consistently rank Seiya among the elite at his position, but his fantasy numbers have never quite shown out. It is time for a correction of the results in his favor. Seiya is probably underpriced and at least appropriately priced for someone with near elite hard hit data.

Fernando Tatis, OF: $5,700 – Among the expensive OFs, Tatis leads the league in maxEV. He is going to punish some of the balls Mikolas throws to him, and his ability to steal a couple bases really raises his ceiling to a place only Acuna can really approach on today’s slate.

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

It looks like there will be rain and cold temps in both of the Chicago area games. The rain seems to be dissipating as the evening wears on, so while the games could play, they will be in conditions that generally lower scoring expectations.

NY also has some rain in the schedule. The game isn’t very enticing to me for pitchers or hitters so I am okay just fading it out of an abundance of caution.

Doing Lines In Vegas

It is notable that ATL is so heavily favored in a high total (9 o/u) game vs. Garret Crotchet and CHW. Many are looking at Crotchet as a breakout candidate this year and while this will surely be a test to face ATL in Atlanta, there is at least a decent chance he can hold down this potent lineup with the cold and rainy weather hovering around the city.