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Never jump into a slate this big without taking a macro view of the slate. There are 4 aces priced above 9k and Ronel Blanco also has a nice start at an elevated price tag. The odds are pretty good one of those guys has a nice game that you will want to own. There are some attractive matchups at the lower price ranges as well. The middle, which will go a bit lower-owned, is sketchy. Everyone has some decent sized question marks. Aaron Civale is my favorite based on the potential for Ks, but BOS has some power in that lineup that is scary. 

With 24 teams (22 now that CHW-WAS is being moved) on the slate, there will be a couple teams that score enough runs where a stack of that team will likely win a tournament. There are always powerful mini stacks to be found throughout the games, but a 5 man stack is particularly valuable when playing large slates. I am seeing a few spots including CLE who has had an impressive ISO (largely through two players) in their last 14 games. They are facing Jack Leiter whose play has been inconsistent. MIL and PIT both have good offenses (I know people might contend with PIT being a good offense, but check out their team bat speed metrics on statcast) and are facing two of the least threatening pitchers on the slate. OAK has been one of the best offenses in the last 14 days and Blanco is due for regression at some point. Trevor Williams is bound for some ERA regression and wouldn’t the White Sox just be the team to do it and benefit from some variation and luck.

I will look at some mini stacks from HOU, a team that is starting to get hot. I like TB facing Nick Pivetta who returned from injury and got beat up a bit by ATL. Ben Lively is pitching pretty well right now, but I do not trust him against TEX who has a few potent players in their lineup. LAD and NYY both have the highest wRC+ on the road and stand out as good teams to get mini stacks from on this large slate. Always look for low cost options batting high in the order. 

Here’s a little extra info on today’s SPs.

Pitcher K/BB (proj.) OPP OPP K/BB (notes)
Dylan Cease 32/8 (30/9) V COL 27/6 – 78 wRC+ on road
Sonny Gray 31/4 (25/7) At LAA 24/7 (K% decrease recently)
Chris Sale 30/4 (30/7) V CHC 21/9
Ronel Blanco 23/11 (22/9) V OAK 27/8 – 87 wRC+ on road
Logan Gilbert 27/7 (24/5) V KC 20/6 – 83 wRC+ on road
Hunter Greene 27/11 (26/9) At ARI 17/9
Reid Detmers 26/8 (24/8) V STL 24/8 83 wRC+ on road
Nick Pivetta 23/3 (25/8) v TB 25/7 (recent K% down and BB% up)
Carlos Rodon 23/7 (26/8) At MIN 25/7 (recent K% decrease)
Gavin Stone 17/8 (20/7) At SF 19/7
Aaron Civale 24/6 (21/6) At BOS 25/9
Ben Lively 23/8 (18/7) At TEX 20/9
Trevor Williams 21/8 (17/7) At CWS 22/6
Jameson Taillon 17/5 (18/5) At ATL 21/8 (recent K% up and ineffective)
Jack Leiter 14/7 (24/10) v CLE 20/6
Michael Wacha 19/7 (20/7) At SEA 29/9
Chris Paddack 22/4 (19/5) V NYY 19/10 116 wRC+ on road
Slade Cecconi 20/7 (19/6) V CIN 27/8 85 wRC+ on road
JP Sears 17/7 (18/7) At HOU 17/9
Chris Flexen 17/8 (16/8) V WAS 21/7
Quinn Priester 12/8 (17/8) At MIL 24/10
Cal Quantrill 16/8 (13/7) At SD 23/7
Joe Ross 17/8 (19/7) V PIT 26/11
Keaton Winn 18/7 (18/6) V LAD 21/11 114 wRC+ on road

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Dylan Cease, SP: $11,000 – Cease has the best matchup on the slate and he has the best skills, fully supported by projection systems. There are a lot of reasons to like Dylan Cease, but my favorite reason is the likely high K rate in this matchup.

Slade Cecconi, SP: $6,300 – Monty struck out 7 Reds players last night in only 5.1 innings, a lot of Ks for a guy who had a 14% K rate going in. This is more a play on how bad CIN has been, especially on the road. I don’t expect a gem, but I do expect a good price per dollar outing.

Yasmani Grandal, C: $2,700 – Grandal was my pick to click at C on Monday and he hit a HR. In his last 14 days (pretty much his season) he has a 16% barrel rate and is pulling the ball 50% of the time. His GB rate makes him a HR or bust kind of player, but the price is cheap.

Yandy Diaz, 1B: $4,100 – Many people gave up on the low launch angle strong man in Tampa, but he has begun to turn his season around. He still has the extremely low K rate and leads off for a rising team playing in a hitters park. Again, I wouldn’t be picking him to hit a HR, but his hard contact is spiking right now and the price is right.

Ketel Marte, 2B: $5,100 – The main contributor and engine of the ARI offense is not Corbin Carrol, it’s Ketel Marte. He has been hot pretty much all year and if Hunter Greene is not at his best again, Marte should be able to do some damage on his pitches.

Alex Bregman, 3B: $4,000 – Only one person can vouch for me, but at 3:49 pm EST yesterday I texted a buddy saying “Bregman on verge of a hot streak”. Are we a day late? No, we are in line with the data and I think this is the beginning of something good.  The price is even better today.

Oneil Cruz, SS: $4,600 – Cruz will likely be a popular pick as he brings the speed and power we desire at this position and the cost is low comparatively. His hard hit data is also spiking and he gets a great matchup in a good ballpark. Ride the PIT stacks again tonight!

Jackson Merrill, OF: $3,600 – Merrill was a popular add late in draft season because he was going to get everyday at bats. He has turned those ABs into 3 HRs and 6 SBs with a solid .291 BA so far. He has been streaking a bit here in May and his hard hit data supports this run. Roster him against a weak COL pitching staff while he’s still cheap.

Aaron Judge, OF: $6,000 – How is he not the highest priced OF?! His 100 avg EV over the last 14 days is far and away the best in the league. If Judge is crushing the ball, good things are going to happen. He is a great mini stacking partner with 1-2 other NYYs.

 

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

You won’t be happy tonight because there is little rain in the forecast for the main slate on DK. There is some wind pushing the ball out in Fenway.

 

Doing Lines In Vegas

There is a lot of action on the early lines with plenty of movement to the over and the under on certain game environments. PIT and MIL are seeing a half point increase in the projected total as is the LAD-SF game. While BOS-TB started with a high O/U of 10 it was immediately bet down to 9….hmmmm. Meanwhile, Dylan Cease’s opponent looks weak with a projected run total of only 2.7.

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mudhen11
mudhen11
5 days ago

Props for the Jimmy Buffett reference.