This is a large slate we are facing with 14 games and plenty of options. It is wholly appropriate to feel lost in trying to figure out who to roster. Do you stack one team, two or none? Many people will be submitting lineups into GPPs that were built by AI builders using projection systems. Even though these systems may be set to capture ceiling performances, the variability of their lineup will make it almost impossible to take down first. Basically, even a computer can’t predict the future and in a game of predicting the future we want to put ourselves in position to capture the most value with one right decision. I can hand pick the best plays at all 8 offensive positions, but that will represent 8 decisions I need to get right. Think of how difficult it is to win an 8 leg parlay.
Stacking allows me to make one decision and correlate my picks within that one decision. Some of those decisions are easy. For example, the Yankees will put up runs vs. Kyle Freeland at home tonight. It may simply match their Vegas total, but within that one decision I can select 3, 4, or 5 people who would benefit if I was right and I am more certain that if I select 5 people on the Yankees to benefit I will get a few of those right, if not all 5. Do you see why stacking is so helpful?
Let’s look at some teams that I think will put up runs tonight:
- ATL has some standout stats in the last 30 days including for barrel rate, FB% and HR/FB rate. The players leading those categories for ATL are Ozuna, Olson, Soler, d’Arnaud, Laureano, and Harris Jr. This converges with Gore’s significant decrease in K-BB% since July 1st. Gore hasn’t had an uptick in HRs, but there’s a chance those are coming too.
- Brayan Bello has pitched poorly to LHBs as he just doesn’t seem to have pitches that can get them out. ARI enters Fenway as a hot team even without 3 of their stars. Some of the lefties have been leading the way including Joc Pederson and Corbin Carroll. This team is easily stacked as well.
- BOS, NYM, and HOU have all been consistent power producers over the past 30 days at least. They are also all in favorable matchups for hitting. There is a real possibility one of these three traditional powerhouses leads the offense on a slate like this.
- KC has been turning up their power production a bit lately with the help of players other than Bobby Witt. They get to face Taijuan Walker whose K-BB numbers have been brutal lately. KC excels in limiting Ks so they should have a good chance to hit the ball all over the field in this one.
- SEA faces Hayden Birdsong whose BB rate is not going away any time soon. That could lead to some chances for big innings. SD has been a really productive offense and they face Paul Blackburn who gave up 6 runs to OAK two starts ago. TOR is facing a pitcher who generates a lot of GBs but who cannot strike anyone out.
These are the best ideas I could come up with when looking through data and digging more into some teams. I will feel totally comfortable drafting my team mostly from this list of teams above. I have managed to shrink the slate. Is it possible I miss a “had to have it” player, of course, but I will at least be able to build a lineup that has the chance to finish first if things go right. Limit the amount of decisions you have to get right on a slate this big.
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Luis Castillo, SP: $9,800 – Castillo often pitches well in his home park, not because it’s his home, but because it is built to accentuate some of his strengths and hide weaknesses. For a myriad of reasons, he has a much higher K rate there, which is necessary for Castillo. He faces SF whose K rate has jumped in the last month. He is a discount off of Chris Sale and while I don’t think this is a ceiling game for Castillo, it is still a good spot.
Keider Montero, SP: $6,400 – Here we have a decent pitcher who could use a little more good luck to go his way. It’s possible his ERA (5.28) is a bit inflated off of his SIERA (4.37) because he has faced a gauntlet of teams so far in his MLB career. Now, Montero gets to face the CWS and I am hopeful he can match his DK high score of 27.
Sean Murphy, C/1B: $3,700 – MacKenzie Gore’s control has slipped and if that slip continues into tonight I think the Braves are set to punish him. Murphy (or d’Arnaud if he is back from a wrist injury) will be hitting the ball with some elevated EVs and Gore gives up a high babip to RHBs.
Jake Burger, 1B: $5,200 – I was surprised to see him priced so high, but it’s totally appropriate given his last 30 days. He has knocked 13 HRs with some top ten hard hit data. Facing Kyle Hendricks could result in a big night, even in Miami.
Will Wagner, 2B: $2,300 – This looks to be a popular spot to save money tonight. Wagner has been amongst the leaders for his position at EV and barrels. I am playing him in TOR stacks and trying to avoid otherwise. He has a 50% GB rate against a pitcher with similarly high GB rates.
Eugenio Suarez, 3B: $4,200 – Here is a man who can produce a tourney winning DFS score. Sometimes he doesn’t do anything, but his profile shows he is consistently barreling up balls and barrels = HRs. We know Suarez can hit multiple in a game or be the RBI guy his team needs. Suarez is a good one-off or part of an ARI stack tonight.
Orlando Arcia, SS: $3,200 – You have to love some of these cheap ATL bats. Arcia is going to be involved if (if/when are the same word in Swahili) ATL can get to Gore. He has been hitting the ball hard this second half of the season and he’s a good addition to an ATL stack. You know the high end guys by now.
Corbin Carroll, OF: $5,500/Joc Pederson, OF: $4,800 – Both D-Backs have great hard hit data over the last 30 days, with Pederson walking more than he strikes out and crushing the ball on par with Juan Soto or Jake Burger. Carroll brings possible SBs to the table as well. Pair this duo up to start the ARI stack.
Adam Duvall, OF: $3,000/Ramon Laureano, OF: $2,800 – If you are looking for a cheaper OF pairing, check out these cheap ATL bats. ATL has not faced many lefty pitchers this month making Duvall somewhat useless, but he showed what he can do vs. a pretty good one in Chris Sanchez. Laureano has a similar skill set and has been hitting the ball pretty hard when not striking out.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There’s been a lot of crying in my house lately with a 1 month old baby so I join you in your discontent about no weather issues today.
Doing Lines In Vegas
I was watching the Tigers game the other day and the fans got a free menu item from some fast food restaurant (can’t remember what or which) if they scored 3 runs. 3 runs?!! Is that the higher standard in Detroit. I don’t know what they are doing with one of the higher totals on the slate today. I know they face the White Sox, but DET has not been a good offense either. What does this tell me for DFS? I need to look at their lineup later today and consider any cheaper pieces as one-offs or maybe a 2-3 man stack. Otherwise, the Vegas totals are pretty much in line with how I’m seeing the slate.
