It’s good to be back my friends. After a week away, I’m ready and raring to go. I took a full week off from DFS (That’s a lie, I played in the PGA Championship MIlly Maker, but who’s counting) and it was a nice reprieve. MLB is a crazy long season and in the midst of the dog days, it can really be a grind. Taking some much needed time off was great and if you’re feeling sluggish when building lineups I suggest you do the same. Enough about my time off though, let’s get back to business: the business of making cash. Obviously, you have a decision to make tonight and that is what to do with Coors field. Bryce Harper is ludacris expensive tonight, $6,400, but for good reason. Bryce gets to face off against David Hale and his 5.69 ERA, 5.23 FIP and 2.0 HR/9 in Coors field. Do you dare fade the kid? If you do choose to fade Coors this evening, I’d look to the game over in Miller Park. Miller Park, believe it or not, is numero uno in HR park factor in 2015. Of course, park factors are victim to small sample size noise when only looking at a single season, but being number one in HR by a comfortable margin this year isn’t nothing. Miller is top five in runs for good measure as well. I’ll be making a few Miller and Coors recommendations below so you don’t forget, so raise a glass and follow me.
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 12 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
James Shields, SP: $8,600 – Obviously Kershaw is your ace of the night but at $15,000, you can’t afford much offense which means no Coors field exposure and certainly no Bryce Harper. I’m going to cross my fingers and fade the high priced lefty. For just over half the price of Kershaw, you can get yourself a nice number 2 against a bad offense in a pitcher’s park. Yes please and thank you. James Shields is my number one pitching option tonight against a Braves offense that has sunk to the 3rd lowest team OPS. AJ Pierzynski is batting cleanup, for goodness sake, and Joey Terd Sandwich is playing first. That’s bad with a side of ugly and in Petco they don’t stand a chance.
Jason Hammel, SP: $8,400 – Hammel has been my buddy all season long and tonight is no different. I particularly like Hammel as a tournament option tonight because many people will most likely be scared off by the matchup against Detroit. The Cubbies are pretty large favorites (-165) against the Tigers though and the Tigers offense has been lacking in the month of August. I could easily see Hammel outscoring the likes of deGrom and Lynn and at a much nicer price point.
Kevin Gausman, SP: $5,100 – We’ve seen the upside that Gausman has in his 7 inning 8 strikeout game at Seattle last time out. When you get down into the sub six grand range, that’s really all you can ask for. The Mets are still the Mets and even with Yoenis Cespedes they aren’t terribly scary. I love Gausman at this price and the roster flexibility you get with him is enormous.
Matt Wisler, SP: $5,600 – I’m not suggesting you cross streams, but if you’re looking for a punt play at pitcher and don’t like Gausman, give Wisler the hairy eyeball. Wisler gets everyone’s favorite “revenge game” tonight, squaring off against the team that traded him away. While a win may not be likely, a game in Petco against the worst team OPS in the league should keep the damage to a minimum. If you wanted to run a full on Coors stack out there, Gausman and Wisler could be a tasty duo. Build a roster and see what you think.
Kurt Suzuki, C: $2,500 – I can only imagine that Brian McCann is the most expensive ($4,700) catcher on the night because of his numbers vs. Pelfrey. If you look over on the other side of the diamond, however, there’s a less flashy catcher with impressive BvP numbers. Kurt has taken CC deep 4 times in 33 ABs against the big man and this is the price range I love for my catchers: dirt cheap.
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B: $4,200 – Speaking of BvP numbers, all Adrian does is take Felix deep. In 2 ABs vs. Doubront A-Gon has two hits, both HRs. Incredibly small sample size obviously, but Doubront is pitiful and some people may not look A-Gon’s way due to the L/L matchup. With no one really blowing me away at first base, I don’t mind going a little contrarian and hoping for the best.
Albert Pujols, 1B: $4,200 – A couple oldies but goodies at first tonight. Don’t look now, but Albert is heating up again. If you remember earlier in the season, Pujols had a run where he couldn’t be pitched to without sending one out of the yard. With 2 HRs in his last 3 games and John Danks on tap tonight, we could be seeing the start of another one of those runs.
Anthony Rendon, 2B/3B: $4,000 – Rendon at $4,000 is fairly criminal. Sure, he hasn’t exactly been good since returning from the DL, but that’s nothing a little trip to Coors field can’t fix. I’m such a sucker for Coors, I really can’t see pulling myself away from one of the better hitters in baseball when he’s there.
Kolten Wong, 2B: $3,700 – If I do pull myself away from Rendon, it will be to beat up on Ryan Vogelsong, one of my all-time favorite targets. I can’t think of many better ways to get exposure than with the sweet hitting lefty second baseman we all love, Mr. Wong. Lefties are absolutely crushing Vogelsong this season (.873 OPS vs. .662 OPS vs. RHB) and I like Wong to go deep tonight. Yup, I said it.
Kyle Seager, 3B: $4,300 – This is strictly a Hittertron call tonight. The hittertron loves to pick on Chi-Chi Gonzalez. I’m not sure if he had a bad experience involving a jar of Chi-Chi’s salsa back in his college days or what but anytime Gonzalez is on the board, hittertron is going after him. He hates him so much that Seager is the number 2 third baseman on the night. That’s a pretty big deal considering the next four third basemen are all playing their games in Coors field. Trust the robot.
Asdrubal Cabrera, SS: $3,600 – Ian Desmond is your no doubt top SS for the night, but besides him, there may not be a hotter shortstop right now than the dribble himself. The switch hitter gets to face Scott Feldman tonight, or as he’s known to me, “The guy that should have lost his rotation spot had Vincent Velasquez not needed his innings limited”. Rolls right off the tongue, doesn’t it?
Khris Davis, OF: $3,900 – You know who your studs are tonight, so I’m going with a few mid level guys in the OF that you should keep your eye on. Baby crush has killed me all season, I’ve never been able to time owning him with one of his big outbursts, but I’m going back to that well tonight vs. Adam Conley. Conley is the reason I’m so excited for the Miller Park game and why all righty Brewer bats are in play. With any luck, Khris will be batting cleanup and maybe, just maybe I can time one of his monster games.
Clint Robinson, OF: $2,900 – We always like cheap exposure to Coors and sub $3,000 is about as cheap as it gets. It’s no guarantee Clint’s in the lineup, but if he is, make sure to play around with what type of team you can build with him on board.
Aaron Hicks, OF: $3,500 – Hicks has been stuffing the stat sheet for the past month or so and the Twins have been rewarding him with the leadoff spot the past week. If he lands in that same spot against Sabathia – who he’s taken deep twice in the mere 7 ABs he’s had against him – he’ll be hard to ignore. I like the Twins as a contrarian stack tonight in part because there are several players with a nice BvP history against the hefty lefty. Hicks can be the firestarter atop the lineup that gets it all going.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There are three games with potential to get very wet tonight. Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh is a bummer as Liriano is one of the better pitching options on the night. Detroit @ Chicago wipes away my Hammel recommendation if that rain holds up. Finally San Francisco @ St. Louis means beating up on Vogelsong could be short lived, but I’m still digging the offense in this one.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Kershaw is your no doubt (-220) favorite for the night slate but there’s 3 pitchers that come up next in the (-170) range. Garrett Richards vs. CWS, James Shields vs. ATL and R.A. Dickey vs. PHI. Outside of Coors, there is a three way tie for highest over/under at 9 runs. Those games are MIN@NYY, CLE@BOS, and SEA@TEX.
