Happy TUESDAY, Razzball faithful!

It feels like an eternity since we last shared the screen. 

But now that it’s been a whopping EIGHT days since the regular season wrapped up, it’s time to take a moment to review the magic and mystery that was 2026’s Top 100 Starting Pitchers.

• What did we learn this season (or at least what strategies or opinions worked throughout the year)?
• What names did your guy, MarmosDad, hit, miss, or float around the middle with this year?
• Does it count as a bust or a boom if we called out a preseason flop and said pitcher did just that?!

I bounced around the idea of sharing one final list with the original rankings alongside the final ranks so folks could see exactly what happened from beginning to end, but that felt like an exercise best left to those who were really interested in checking.

In other words, I’ll go through some of the ranking differences in my recaps here, but if you want to see a specific name from way back in February versus where they ended the year, you can hop into the DeLorean and clickity-click on these two links below.

First list of the year (February 2026)

Final list of the year (September 2026)

As for the differences between that first list and the final one, Grey mentioned the “end-game” shift in strategy in one of his final 2026 pods, but it’s worth repeating (or at least paraphrasing). 

When we get to the last couple of weeks of the season, the focus of the Top 100 Starting Pitchers list switches from “let’s predict future success and value” to “which one of these guys can get me the most points in my run at the title”?

In other words, some names in September’s list wouldn’t have shown up in January for this reason. 

Or, in very specific other words, no one was tripping over other managers to add Anthony Kay and Kyle Leahy to their rosters in February. 

So then, what did we learn this year in our quest to assemble the perfect fantasy rotation?

Here are a few things that I wrote down in my week of rest, reflection, and contemplation.

1. Wait on pitching. This one is the Razzball gospel. If y’all were new this year, here’s hoping you learned the lesson and heeded it. Don’t draft a top starter in your first 50 picks. Instead, focus solely on multi-category hitting studs, preferably with a good track record for health and productivity. Pitchers carry greater volatility and health risks. Gamble on the hitters first, not guys who can blow an arm out before Easter. Oh, you want examples? How about Cole Ragans, Garrett Crochet, Hunter Greene, Joe Ryan, and Framber Valdez. Those were some of the guys I had ranked in my preseason Top 20. Woof.
2. Use your late picks as educated gambles or dart throws. There’s a hedge to this one, though. Make sure you target guys with a job or at least a clear path to a starting gig. I spoke with Mike and Jeremy on the Cards and Categories podcast about Payton Tolle this preseason (yes, you can click that link for all of it). You can read more of the Tolle breakdown below!
3. Invest in what these starting pitchers WILL do, not what they DID do. Most fantasy leaguers look at last year’s stats and assume each guy will repeat their numbers. For better or for worse. If you believe in the skills, move said pitcher up your target list…Even if your guy burned you hard the previous year (ahem, Gavin Williams).
4. Prioritize drafting those skills over basic stats. In other words, ignore team-centric numbers like wins and focus on K-BB, strikeout rates, walk rates, and increased velocity instead.
5. Inning increases or level advancement are a good indication of growth for young arms. If your guy struggled to get through AA and is starting there again next year, check if there’s a reason he wasn’t promoted. 
6. Gradually building up stamina is good, but be careful how aggressively you draft these kids the following year. If there’s a drastic jump in innings pitched, be cautious. (Highly increased workloads = higher risk of injury problems).
7. Pay attention to preseason news. I don’t want to get too far into preseason prep work or advice, but this should be a draft-day consideration. Did your targeted starter learn a new pitch this winter? Was he in the lab getting some special tutelage? Or was he hammering deep-fried Twinkies dipped in caramel sauce? If a guy put in work all winter and had no large-scale “life changes” at home, the odds that he shows up healthy and confident to Spring Training give us a better chance of knowing he’s starting on the right foot.

OKAY! So there’s the “what did we learn” from our review of the starting pitcher landscape in 2026. NOW, let’s have a peek at some of the highs, lows, and uh-ohs from the year!

The MarmosDad 2026 Starting Pitching Prediction Awards

Please don’t judge me for giving these out to myself. If I could send you the bad ones, trust me, I would.

MAR-MEHs – Starting Pitcher calls who were just OK!

Ranger Suarez – It’s another clap back to the C&C podcast for this one. When I was putting together buys and sells for the AL East, I remember going to the NFBC site multiple times and counting down the pitcher ranks to see if I read something incorrectly. 

Ranger Suarez was the SP53 in those NFBC ADPs, and I couldn’t understand why he wasn’t ranked higher. The Statcast page was beet-red, and Suarez’s pitch mix looked like it was a good fit for Fenway Park. 

Was Suarez’s 8.49 K/9, 3.22 ERA, and 1.18 WHIP disappointing? No.

Did we expect more than 8 wins on the year? Uh…yes. That’s a confirmed Meh. (But, for the record, he finished as the SP44 on our 2026 Player Rater).

Bryan Woo – In our preseason staff picks, I decided to zig while a lot of others were zagging. (No, Cody Bellinger, that doesn’t mean what you think it means. Stop doing the spinny thing with your fingers and nodding towards the exit doors).

Instead of going with chalk picks like Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal for our NL and AL Cy Young predictions, I put my faith in Cristopher Sanchez and Bryan Woo.

Now, while both guys didn’t have terrible seasons, they certainly didn’t do us any favors if we drafted them at their preseason ADPs.

Both Grey and I had Woo as our SP6 in the preseason rankings, and I was fully in on the mancrush for Seattle’s new ace. 

12 wins and a 1.10 WHIP are nothing to shake your fist at, and Truss did manage to win a title while weathering the potential sabotage when I sent him Woo for Bryan Baker in the Perts League.

But finishing the season as the SP30 on our Player Rater keeps my Bryan Woo pick from being anything but a ‘meh’ this year.

Insert sad emoji here. And the tiniest cry of “Boo-woo”.

Here’s hoping he figures out how to pitch on the road next year and we can get in at a discount!

Shota Imanaga – I re-read the note from my first Top 100 list, and felt like I should share it here, since it mentions the guy right ahead of him.

“The K rate took a big dip last year (down to 7.28 K/9 from 2024’s 9.03), but the walk rate is still solid. His 1.62 BB/9 would have slotted him as third best in the league if he had qualified with enough innings. For those who need more of a reference point, that’s one spot higher than Bryan Woo’s 1.74.”

Again, some nights watching Shota’s starts felt like one of two extremes: we either got a ratio savior, or we got a figurative kick in the jaw.

Heck, he finished with just one fewer win than Woo did, and bested the former in ERA and WHIP.

When I dove in even further, this is what I found. Check this madness out.

WHO?	IP	WINS	Ks	BBs	K%	BB%	K/BB RATIO
Bryan Woo	173	12	175	39	24.6	5.5	4/49
Shota Imanaga	174.1	11	174	37	24.6	5.2	4.70

Uh…

So…not bad. Not great. And, more importantly, I knew I couldn’t stay away from making a chart today.

MARM-OH-NOs – Players who gave me the “whoops” this year and flipped my instincts upside down.

Kyle Bradish – Misery loves company. Or, at least there were a lot of folks at the bottom of this hole when I fell into it, so I had a lot of meat there to break my fall.

Last year’s small sample size was such a tease of greatness that I, along with a lot of others, fell for the pending breakout.

This one deserves a Grey shout-out from his 18th Annual Razzballies post.

And that, folks, is how you recap a big old starting pitcher: “Oh No”.

Cam Schlittler – I was all in on Trey Yesavage this year, and my homerism bit me in the backside. The only place I hedged on Schlittler was in our Perts league draft where I picked him up as my 12th-round selection, but I also announced in the draft chat that I needed a share this year just in case he popped off.

Yes, I felt better looking back at that pick (and seeing the two picks just before my Schlittler one were Truss’s Spencer Strider and Cram’s Ryan Pepiot), but it was a big whiff everywhere else for the Yankees’ ace. 

Hey, Schlitt happens.

MARM-OH-YEAHs – Drinking the Kool-Aid or Stepping into a Slim Jim! These were a few of the ‘Ooooh yeahhhhs!’

Payton Tolle – For the record, in that C&C pod, I did say that I wouldn’t be surprised if Tolle was brought along as a high-impact reliever this year to manage innings and maybe make him a closer after Aroldis Chapman imploded (oops!).

I also pointed out that teams hesitate to move starters to a bullpen role this early in their careers. I got lucky in my early drafts when Tolle was sent down to Pawtucket, and I scooped him up for a good cost and crossed my fingers that he would get the call sooner rather than later.

It’s true that I didn’t have any faith that Brayan Bello would hold him off for long, and I wasn’t convinced Connolly Early would hit the ground running either.

So, as I said above, use those late-round picks for arms that you have faith in, and guys that either have a rotation spot locked down, OR are guys that have less-than-talented competition standing in their way.

I had Payton Tolle listed in my first Top 100 list back in February when a lot of other folks were pushing him down. For the record, Grey was higher on him than both NFBC and Fantrax ADP as well. 

And we all know what we got there. The story itself is almost better than the season results. All I know is I’m glad I dropped Garrett Whitlock and added Tolle way back on April 21st in the Perts League.

Your reminder that Payton Tolle press conferences are must-see TV.

— Red Sox (@redsox.com) 2026-09-28T21:37:25.800Z

What a beauty.

Shane Baz – This one is best explained by the quote from that first post of the year. “I don’t believe in the bounce back. I was burned far too often by the walk rate and earned run implosions that happened much more often than they should have. Four of his first five starts were quality starts last year. After that, he had two more…before July 1st. And just five more the rest of the way. Maybe that’s not a big deal, but it does warrant a mention that Baz started out great and fell apart early on. I’m not falling for that tailpipe banana again, even if he’s got a new set of digs (in Baltimore).” And that’s me quoting me!

Dylan Cease – I saved the best for last! It’s just too bad Dylan Cease didn’t.

The walk rate has always been a deterrent, and I’ll admit that this was one homer pick that I backed into that actually worked out better than a lot of people expected it to work out.

There were snickers when Cease signed the 7-year, $210 million deal with the Blue Jays, and a lot of folks said it was an overpay.

I was higher on Cease than everyone else, all year long, and it paid off for me in the end. I remember starting the rough drafts of the Top 100 way back then and thinking to myself there was no way I was going to rank this guy below Framber Valdez and Joe Ryan. He wasn’t ranked too far above those guys, but even with a conservative SP17 ranking back in February, I’d count this one as a win for your guy, MD.

What does all of this madness tell us?

If you’re looking for a TL/DR to sum up the above, it’s this: Pitching is volatile, and the moment we think we have it all figured out, it flips us on our fantasy heads once again.

All we can do is prepare as best we can, and be ready to change things up on the fly.

Baseball is full of clichés, but if you think fantasy baseball is won at the draft table, you need to think again. 

It’s a season of news collection, adding players before the rest of your league sniffs out a breakout, and looking to buy low on players that you believe in.

And, at the risk of sounding like the big, old Dad that I am, the biggest thing you can learn from a fantasy baseball ride is the same thing I tell my own kids when they’re struggling, working on improving, or trying to figure something out on their own…

There are a lot of things beyond our control. Things happen, and sometimes bad stuff happens even when you make the right choices.

At the end of the day, you can control only two things…Your attitude, and your effort.

Well, maybe three things. Because you definitely can control whether you’re drafting Michael Lorenzen or Jeffrey Springs with that final-round pick.

 

That’s all for this week, and for this year! 

Before I jet, I want to say thanks again to Grey, Rudy, and Truss for giving me the chance to bring you the Top 100 Starting Pitchers again this year. I had a blast once again, and I’m looking forward to getting things going again when the calendar flips to 2027!

And, of course, thanks so much for reading, commenting, and sharing your questions along the way. It’s been great to interact with so many of you, and I hope I could help each of you in some way over the 2026 fantasy baseball season!

If you’re jonesing for some wintertime Marmos, you can always visit on the fantasy hockey side of things every Wednesday for the Tuesday night roundup of NHL action.

And come back for a peek on the baseball side around December 24th. There might be something under the Razz-tree again for all of the good Razz-children this holiday season!

Until 2027!

 

Follow me @marmosdad on Twitter/X and Bluesky @marmosdad.bsky.social