OF Optimization: The Final Two Weeks

I usually do a look ahead for pitching in the final weeks, but with two weeks left, I am using a similar approach to help you optimize your outfield spots for the remainder of the season.

I grouped the remaining schedule by division using park factor and second-half runs allowed. Team runs allowed is directional. It will never replace the actual opposing pitcher, but it works as a tool to think ahead and help you plan. This type of forward-looking view coupled with Hittertron is ideal.

The grid is organized by division and is color-coded: the darker the green, the more favorable for hitters. Likewise, the darker the pink / reddish color, the more unfavorable for hitters. Park factor is for 2026 only and was pulled on September 7. Team runs allowed per game is for second half (July 16 – September 9). Yahoo ownership as of September 11 is shown for players near or under the 50% threshold. Player stats are through September 11 unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive in.

AL East

BAL (12 games): below average schedule and no viable streaming options in the outfield. Avoid.

BOS (12 games): finishes at home for 6 games with a pretty decent schedule. Perhaps they miss Gavin Williams. I must mention Ceddanne Rafaela has really struggled over the last several weeks. His expected stats are well below his actuals (will cover another time). Since August 21 he has a line of 0/0/6/1/.264 (13 games). Is that worth starting now? Probably not.

NYY (13 games): has a volume advantage and closes out the season with 7 home games next week. This is a decent two-week window despite the TB matchup. Spencer Jones (32%) has not cooled off (21/4/21/6/.320 over his last 31 games) and continues to get ABs with Grisham on the shelf despite the return of Aaron Judge.

TB (13 games): also has a volume advantage with 13 games and a favorable matchup vs the A’s this week, but faces tougher tests the rest of the year. Richie Palacios (2%) is on fire (5/4/6/2/.263) over his last 7 games.

TOR (12 games): has fairly neutral matchups in terms of venue, but fairly decent pitching matchups. Brett Bateman (7%) is still a good play for the rest of the season for BA and Runs while he continues to hit (.356 BA with 15 Runs and 3 SBs over his last 22 games).

AL Central

CHW (13 games): plays an extra game this week, but has better matchups the following week. KC is a plus park after moving in the fences. You can keep rolling with Tristan Peters until he cools off, but remember to bench vs LHP. It may be better to wait until next week as CHW is tied for the 3^rd fewest runs scored since September 1. The COL pitching staff can cure a lot of ills.

CLE (12 games): gets a prime matchup at home vs the A’s. They finish with 6 games on the road in favorable parks but face BOS who has limited runs. Steven Kwan (60%) is still relevant for BA and Runs ROS. Jo Adell crushes LHP (12 HRs, 40 RBIs with a .309 BA in 165 PAs). Check the slate and consider using him vs LHP only (he’s not providing any other value now).

DET (13 games): has neutral parks and matchups this week, but an extra game advantage. They also host WSH who tends to give up runs. The Tigers close out all 7 games at home. Max Clark (19%) is warming up (7/1/4/3/.333 over his last 9 games).

KC (12 games): has a neutral first week schedule but it improves the following week as they close out the season with 6 games at home. No streaming options here.

MIN (13 games): has the extra volume, but faces NYY who is giving up the fewest runs in the second half, which limits upside. Surprisingly, LAA has been stingy with runs in the second half. The MIN outlook improves next week, but they are at Oracle Park, which is not ideal. I consider MIN a fade despite the volume.

AL West

ATH (12 games): has the best home environment in baseball and closes out the season with 6 straight home games. Ride out Henry Bolte (33%) who has a slash line of 28/7/15/8/.316 since August 1 (38 games). Keep playing Zach Gelof too who has been productive over the last two weeks 12/3/6/4/.212. Lawrence Butler (55%) looks like a better option for the following week.

HOU (12 games): is home this week, but faces a tough ATL staff. Next week the outlook improves significantly since they are at Sacramento for a 4-game series. They travel to Seattle, which is not a great park, but the Seattle staff seems broken. Admittedly, it looks weird seeing the Mariners staff show up favorable for hitters. Cam Smith (11%) is worth a look (3 HRs, 4 RBI and a .381 BA over the last week).

LAA (13 games): has an extra game, but not great venues for the bulk of their schedule. However, their opponents are well above average in runs allowed. Perhaps Mike Trout can finish strong after breaking his 27-game homerless drought on Friday.

SEA (12 games): has a series at Coors which is a plus. Fire up Lazaro Montes (5%) and Dominic Canzone (23%) if available. They close at home, which isn’t an ideal venue but it’s at home. Those crazy Angels are pitching better than you think.

TEX (12 games): has 9 straight home games before finishing with a plus matchup at MIN. Not a terrible schedule, but not exactly hitter havens. Ezequiel Duran loves hitting in Texas. Since July 1, he has a 1.068 OPS with 10 HRs at home (35 games). In fact, 10 of his last 11 HRs have come at home.

NL East

ATL (12 games): fairly neutral this week, but facing CIN should be good for everyone next week.

MIA (12 games): faces ATL and SD who have been pretty good at keeping runs down. My gut says fade MIA OF for those two series, but would keep rolling with Heriberto Hernandez if you need HRs and RBIs. I like Javier Sanoja (36%) too, who qualifies at 2B, 3B, SS, OF and offers a little bit of everything. Since August 15 he has gone 14/4/15/4/.372 over his last 100 PAs (24 games).

NYM (13 games): volume advantage this week but has a 4-game series against PHI, which limits upside. The schedule is more favorable next week. Volume counts if you are chasing steals. Since the calendar flipped to September, A.J. Ewing has started to hit again (7/2/9/1/.433 over his last 8 games).

PHI (12 games): decent week 1 opponent schedule. Tougher week 2 slate although all 6 games are at home.

WSH (11 games): fewest games left in the league. They have a tough matchup vs PHI too, but finish with a better matchup at home the following week against NYM. Lack of volume hurts.

NL Central

CHC (12 games): tough matchup to start the week at home, but then at CIN helps. The following week with MIA coming to town looks good. Finishing at BOS is not ideal despite the favorable park.

CIN (13 games): volume advantage and 7 home games this week. The matchups are on the tougher side. Hector Rodriguez if you picked up or planned on streaming looks to have his work cut out for him based on matchups.

MIL (12 games): on the road for 9 of their last 12 games with neutral matchups this week followed by a tougher matchup against PHI. They do finish at home for a decent matchup.

PIT (12 games): 9 games at home is good, but start the week vs MIL, which is tough. Next week is a good start but a tougher finish (neutral overall). Oneil Cruz is about the only outfielder on this team doing anything, although Ryan O’Hearn (38%) just returned from the IL. Cruz is hitting .389 with 11 RBIs and 3 SBs in 10 September games.

STL (12 games): favorable first week with all games at home with plus matchups. Downgrade next week, though. Thomas Saggese (38%) has caught fire in September with a 10/3/8/2/.400 slash line over his last 10 games.

NL West

ARI (12 games): is an avoid for me this week. The team is unable to generate any offense (second fewest runs scored in MLB since September 1). Hello Coors next week! Coors is generally undefeated, so I am betting on better production next week. Ending in SD could decide the wildcard and the games could be tight (avoid that series for fringe and streamers).

COL (13 games): volume advantage and 9 games at Coors. Start or stream Cole Carrigg (15%) with confidence (.874 home OPS).

LAD (13 games): has a volume advantage and a great matchup at CIN. Home vs SF is fine, but next week is not as good. Josue De Paula (15%), who will DH while Ohtani is on the mend, is worth an add. Also, Teoscar Hernandez has shown signs of life with 2 HRs, 14 RBIs and a .462 BA over his last 11 games. If only Kyle Tucker could teleport back to his Astro days and give us something over the next two weeks (I know it’s a stretch). Did you see his stats on Friday? So you’re telling me there’s a chance?

SD (13 games): has the extra game and is in Coors for 4 games. They end the week with a decent matchup at home. Week 2 not as attractive (see above Arizona note).

SF (12 games): week 1 at STL is ok, but going to LA is not. They finish at home, but remember the home OPS of their outfielders is considerably lower than on the road.

Key Takeaways and Actions

So what does all of this mean? As a general rule, start your studs, but there are probably viable options on the waiver wire or on your bench who you should consider. While I am not making specific bench calls, players who are ice cold are worth benching too. Nothing is off the table at this point. Again, this is outfielder-specific and generally focused on players rostered in 50% or fewer Yahoo leagues. Here is an optimized outfielder streaming plan for the final two weeks.

Add and Play Both Weeks

Cole Carrigg (15%): 9 games at Coors. The park wins out. Enough said.
Henry Bolte (35%): 6 more games at SAC; he is surging, keep riding this wave.
Zach Gelof (54%): see above schedule; he continues to produce and qualifies at multiple spots.
Spencer Jones (32%): 13 games left on schedule, last 7 at home.
Heriberto Hernandez (27%): add for HRs and RBIs. He’s fine. Don’t pay attention to the noise and his .175 BA since September 1 (.192 BABIP, .375 SLG vs .538 xSLG, .294 wOBA vs .377 xwOBA).
Javier Sanoja (36%): keep playing until he cools off, multi-positional flexibility is huge.
Brett Bateman (7%): BA, Runs with some SBs added in.

Add and Play This Week / Bench Next Week

Josue De Paula (15%): add for a prime matchup at CIN. Let’s see what he can do. He is probably a bench player for me next week unless he is sizzling hot since I am targeting other matchups. Upside is undeniable, but so is risk (time is not our friend now, there is no time to wait for him to figure it out).
Richie Palacios (2%): favorable schedule this week and is hot. Be aware that he sits vs LHP (54 PAs). Let’s see what he does this week before committing to him the following week (7 games).
Thomas Saggese (38%): looks like a good option this week and qualifies at 2B, 3B, SS, OF. Let’s see if he continues this streak before starting another week.

Add and Bench This Week / Play Next Week

Lawrence Butler (55%): Ownership decreased after cooling off, but he hit a HR on Friday. I would snatch him up if available and deploy next week at home. He was bound to cool off, but do not underestimate how good the hitting environment is in SAC.
Cam Smith (11%): can be used this week, but I prefer next week at SAC.
Tristan Peters (31%): has been hot, but I like his next week matchups better. Team context (not scoring runs) should change. COL staff should help.

Add and Target For Specific Series

Tim Tawa (13%): add for the COL series next week; watch lineups.
Lars Nootbaar (2%): is even in play here for the COL series; monitor lineups (sits vs LHP).
Lazaro Montes (5%): add for Coors series, but monitor lineup for LHP (likely sits).
Dominic Canzone (23%): add for Coors this week.
Daulton Varsho (19%): add next week for SAC series only (4 games).

There are many options shown here, which should fit a variety of leagues. Good luck and thanks for reading. You can find me on X at @Toolsy3.