Well hello there! Happy Wednesday (again) from MarmosDad! I hope everyone had a good Father’s Day weekend and you’re all rested up for our mid-week DFS picks. Leave those green-stained lawn mowing shoes at the back door for another few days and relax. Peek in on the new Obi-Wan episode today if you’d like, and let me do the heavy lifting for your lineup choices today!
It’s another full list of 15 games this Wednesday in MLB. Today’s slate starts at 2:10 PM ET as the Blue Jays take on the White Sox in Chicago, and the Mets travel to Houston. The rest of the day is covered by 4 afternoon starts and the final evening game beginning at 9:49 PM ET with KC at Anaheim. Like last week, you can probably play a couple of lineups if you like some of the earlier names and prices, then put together a good group for the evening games.
Today, there are a bunch of different chalk plays to look in on and some underpriced rookies that may be worth a gamble. I’ll include some contingencies in some of the writeups here too because it was tough to decide which way to go heavy or where to take a risk.
But as always, last and never least, just a reminder that a lot of the notes that I take and share here are influenced by Rudy’s Streamonator and Hittertron, as well as the DFS tools available right here on Razzball. The DraftKings/FanDuel lineup optimizer is a great way to build multiple lineups with these picks to see how to best enhance your selections and get more bang for your DFS buck! You can access all of this information by signing up for Rudy’s tools using the DFSBot link below.
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Pablo Lopez, SP: (DK) $8,300 – Looking through the SP in our list today, I did what I usually do each week. Check for good matchups, have a look at recent performance, and then have a peek at the Streamonator to see how they line up. Well, I did that today and came up with Pablo Lopez and Shohei Ohtani as two picks that should return some good numbers. Sure enough, both were the top two options on Streamonator (at 39.5 and 43.3 respectively). The separation between this pair and the next option (George Kirby at 19.0) is enough of a gap to lock these two in. Lopez faces the Rockies in Miami and has better overall numbers at home (.192/.246/.368 against). He hasn’t had a standout June like some other SP, but the strikeout potential is there and he should have a better chance to put up numbers than some of the closer SP matchups today.
Shohei Ohtani, SP: (DK) $8,500 – The obvious lay-up here would be playing Tyler Anderson and his undefeated record against the Reds, but I went out west to Anaheim for Shohei v. Daniel Lynch instead. Shohei’s pitching numbers this year shouldn’t be all that surprising – 11.49 K/9, 2.24 BB/9, 1.19 HR/9. He threw 6 innings of 3 hit ball at Seattle last week and had 6 strikeouts in each of his last two outings. All of that and he’s facing Daniel Lynch, a guy that had a 8.25 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in his last 5 starts, (before facing an anemic Oakland offense). I’d play Shohei as a top arm today at home.
Cal Raleigh, C: (DK) $3,400 – I figured it was time to slow down the MJ Melendez fanboy bus and go elsewhere for our backstop. I landed on Cal Raleigh for this one. The ‘not so ancient’ Mariner takes on Paul Blackburn on the road. Whether you’re a fan of Samuel Taylor Coleridge or Iron Maiden, this Mariner has been sailing north in value after a pretty rough patch at sea to start the year (.136/.216/.333 triple slash April 4 through May 30). In June, however, Raleigh has doubled his HR output (8) and boosted those triple slash numbers with a more respectable June line of .231/.298/.519. Laura wrote him up in her June 10th Deep article and mentioned that he was a Geoff (don’t call me Ralph) watchlist target a couple of years ago too. That, and the fact that he’s been getting the main share of Seattle starts, makes him a good enough pick for me at $3,400 today.
Anthony Rizzo, 1B: (DK) $5,500 – I nearly went with Alex Kiriloff (DK: $2,500) but with some of the other cheaper plays here, I pivoted to a more expensive Anthony Rizzo. HR-to-the-Rizzo has been one of the hottest bats in the last week, with a triple slash of .533/.632/1.333 and 4 homers in his last 5 games. He’s facing Shane Baz tonight who is starting just his third game since returning from elbow surgery. Even at a heavy price tag, I’d gamble on Rizzo and his power vs RHP (13 HR this year) here against Baz.
Jonathan India, 2B: (DK) $4,100 – One of Grey’s favorites and, to be honest, one of my full season draftees everywhere too. To say that India has had some bad injury luck is an understatement. The hamstring trouble started in early April, landed him on the IL once, then back again after a one game return with the same problem. Since he’s been back (June 14) India has returned to the top of the Reds lineup and has hit in 4 of his 6 games with a HR last night. He’s the 4th 2B on the Hittertron today and should come cheaper than the Altuve, Turner, Jazz tier.
Oneil Cruz, SS: (DK) $2,700 – “Cruz-in’ down the street in my 6-4…Joc’n the pitches, slappin’ the…” Wait! I bet you didn’t expect “Joc” and “slap” in the same sentence again (Sorry, Tommy Pham). Debuting on Monday night, Oneil was definitely ‘Cruz’ing’ like he’s been up at PNC park for a while. He posted the top three sprint speeds by a Pirates player this year…by the end of the third inning…and showed off a hand cannon on a 6-3 putout to get Willson Contreras in the 3rd. According to MLB, it was clocked at 96.7 MPH for the hardest thrown assist by an infielder this season. Of course, the defense doesn’t matter in DFS but it’ll definitely help to ensure playing time. A 2-for-5 debut with a 2B and 4 RBIs is also a good way to get penciled into the lineup card too. Add in the speed, (SB last night), and the prospect hype and Cruz definitely made it look E-A-Z-Y after his promotion. I’ll stop before I run into about 25 more gangster rap puns. Look for more from the 6’7” wunderkind tonight at home against the Cubs.
Jon Berti, 3B: (DK) $4,400 – The wheels on the Berti bus are definitely going round and round! This one is another Hittertron play as Berti ranks 5th for 3B today. There’s not much to say about Berti that you don’t know already. There is not much power, but he has been leading off in Miami and channeling Rajai Davis as the crown prince of SAGNOF. He’s a guy that won’t hit 4 HR in one game, but could steal a bunch and boost the FPTS for your lineup.
Mike Trout, OF: (DK) $5,900 – This was a tough one to narrow down. I took a look at Jarren Duran (DK: $3,500), who could steal enough bags and tally enough runs in one game to really boost the FPTS (24 Monday night). Riley Greene (DK: $2,100) made the short list too. He’d be one I would try to pick up in season long leagues but I don’t know how well he’ll line up against Michael Wacha’s dark magic today (honestly, how does that guy have a 2.28 ERA and 3.9 FIP?!). The easy chalk play is Mike Trout, who has 8 HR in June with 5 coming this past weekend and is about as hot as anyone in the game right now. No need for extra info here. You know what you’re getting when you reel this big one in.
Taylor Ward, OF: (DK) $4,300 – I wanted to go with Adolis Garcia (DK: $4,600) here, especially after Grey and B-Don spoke to his effectiveness on last week’s pod, but I couldn’t play him against Zack Wheeler at home. Instead, I’m going back out to Anaheim for another Angel in the outfield in Taylor Ward. Ward has been nursing a hamstring injury since the beginning of June, and was activated from the IL a week ago. Like Grey said in his daily writeup yesterday, a 2-for-4 night on Monday with his 11th homer is hopefully a sign that he’s getting back to full speed. Provided that Daniel Lynch doesn’t mow down the Halos, Ward at $4,300 is a good lock tonight.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains…
Washington at Baltimore looks like the highest chance of rain (38% as of last night). Double check any players from the Cubs at Pirates today too (18% P.O.P).
Doing Lines In Vegas…
For straight underdog wins, I like Tarik Skubal at Boston today (+105), and could see playing Carlos Carrasco over the Mets at +110.
For O/U picks, it seems blasphemous to say but I’d take the over of 7 in the Yankees (Jordan Montgomery) vs. Rays (Shane Baz) game, as well as the under of 7.5 in George Kirby at Paul Blackburn.
Best of luck in the DFS plays today! If you have any questions, shoot me a note on Twitter @MarmosDad!
