What happens when the unstoppable force meets the immovable object? Bad movies? Awkward metaphors? Strained fantasy baseball pieces? Yeah, it’s the latter there. The Dodgers are playing in Coors Field tonight against surprise ace Antonio Senzatela. According to old-school baseball data, the over/under on the game should be around 97 runs, with the Dodgers winning by a 30 run margin. According to Senzatela’s recent streak of 7 quality starts, he’ll be the contrarian pitcher option of the week. Now you’re presented a quandry worthy of Rebecca Black in her famed song “Friday,” — which seat will you take?
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Starting Pitchers
Chalk: Brandon Woodruff, Kevin Gausman, Tyler Mahle
Contrarian: Drew Rasmussen, Julio Urias, Marcus Stroman
Fade: Trevor Rogers
I talk about Drew Rasmussen and Trevor Rogers in my recent Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher update. TL;DR: Rogers hasn’t made it past 5 IP in nearly 2 months. Rasmussen, meanwhile, has destroyed big name teams and emerged with a minuscule 1.20 ERA over the last month. Everybody else is a known quantity by now.
Hitters
Remember that I’m writing and submitting this well before roster lock, and these players have a greater than 50% chance of being in the lineup today. As always, check lineups before submitting your entries.
These are my crushers, who are identified as being both favorites in Rudy’s DFS Tools as well as being the top batters on the slate in terms of home/away and handedness splits for wOBA, ISO, and line drive %. Put these batters at a 40%+ exposure or build around them for single entry events:
| Crushers |
|---|
| Rafael Devers |
| Yasmani Grandal |
| Joey Votto |
| Shohei Ohtani |
| Matt Olson |
| Bryce Harper |
| Darin Ruf |
| George Springer |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. |
My Hobbits are batters who have less stringent power requirements but are some of the cheaper bats on the slate.
| Hobbits |
|---|
| Adam Duvall |
| Bobby Dalbec |
| Joey Votto |
| Bobby Bradley |
| C.J. Cron |
| Jared Walsh |
| Miguel Sano |
| Pete Alonso |
| Joey Gallo |
| Darin Ruf |
| Evan Longoria |
My list of unexpected cheap hitters is huge today. These guys are defined by being the cheapest bats on the slate with the highest line drive % against the handedness split. These guys are also the most likely to sit, so please check lineups if you play these guys.
| Think Differently |
| Travis Shaw |
| Harold Ramirez |
| Oscar Mercado |
| Hunter Dozier |
| Jared Walsh |
| Max Stassi |
| Lewis Brinson |
| Jake Cave |
| Ryan Jeffers |
| James McCann |
| Jose Peraza |
| Kevin Pillar |
| Chad Pinder |
| Jake Fraley |
| Brett Phillips |
| Ji-Man Choi |
| Joey Wendle |
| Lane Thomas |
I’m Only Happy When it Rains:
KCR/CLE has a nearly 50% chance of rain, as does PIT/CIN. 20% chance of rain for WAS/MIA.
Doing Lines in Vegas:
Are you stacking the Dodgers today? Why not hedge your bet by getting a piece of that +180 on the Rockies? The Dodgers have already secured their spot in the playoffs and could possibly let Urias take a breather after 4 IP, and the Rockies have been hitting well enough. Senzatela has a QS streak going and he might contain those Dodgers bats. Give it a shot.
