Fantasy Baseball Advice

Yu Darvish is on his way to the States to pitch for the Rangers.  Erik wrote a Yu Darvish 2012 fantasy post already.  To pull some quotes from that article, “Darvish was once involved in a “major scandal” in Japan, where he was caught smoking,” “He also goes by the Persian name Farid, meaning ‘glorious,’” and “He mixes in a cutter.”  He sounds like he’s in the Yakuza.  I don’t want to draft Yu; I wanna hang out with him in illegal gambling halls and pick up coquettish girls.  I’m gonna be honest with you (for the first time ever!) and tell you I don’t know what to make of Darvish’s Japanese numbers.  Dice-K came to the States with some serious bells and whistles.  In his first year, he had a 4.40 ERA.  The Ks did, for lack of a better word, translate to the States early on for Dice-K and I think they will too for Yu (hey, sounds like there’s a haiku in there).  His stuff looks filthy and batters will not be familiar with him at all.  Last year, he had 276/36 K/BB in over 232 innings.  That’s off the charts then making a new chart and going off that one too.  For fantasy, I could see him giving fantasy #2 starter type numbers, say, around a 3.50-3.75 and 200 Ks.  He could basically be the same as what the Rangers just lost in C.J. Wilson.  There’s the chance for more, but Yu’re gonna have to draft him high so there’s gonna be very little room for error.   Depending on his price tag, I’ll probably sit out the fantasy Yu-stakes.  Anyway, here’s some more offseason moves for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Jed Lowrie – Heads to the Astros to become their new shortstop.  On one hand, Lowrie has never hit more than 13 homers in any professional season (2007 when he split time between Double- and Triple-A).  On the other hand, he hasn’t played too many full seasons since then.  On the third lesser known hand that is actually a blown-up rubber glove, he hasn’t played too many full seasons because he’s always injured.  People seem to love Lowrie’s potential.  He’s gonna be 28 years old this year, it would be nice to finally see said potential.  If he hits 12 homers and steals 5 bases, it would be a huge season for him.  In other words, I don’t know any reason why people love him.

Mark Melancon – Goes to the Sawx.  The GM over in Beantown says Melancon is “capable of closing.”  In big market speak, that means he won’t be the closer.  Melancon is the stereotypical small market closer, big market set-up man.

Daniel Bard – The Sawx are toying with the idea that Daniel Bard should be in the rotation rather than as the closer.  To incorrectly quote Gordon Gekko, “That’s a toy with fleas.”  As a starter in the minor leagues, his ERA was 7.08 and walked 78 hitters in 75 innings.  Granted, this was early on in his minor league career, but I don’t see the Sawx taking a pitcher that is actually succeeding as a reliever and stretching him out to fail.  Then again, their rotation isn’t exactly five deep.  I think Bard’s the closer before Melancon, but it might not be decided until the spring.  Hopefully he doesn’t stay *pinkie to mouth* Bard from the bullpen.  Or should I say bullpun.

Tsuyoshi Wada – Signed with the O’s.  I agree with Scott, our prospect writer, when he says he’s not impressed with Wada.  He looks like a fourth starter on a bad team with a side of belch.

Michael Cuddyer – Gets away from Hubert H. Homerfree Dome and goes to Coors.  Boom goes the dynamite!  Or does it?  Cuddyer just had a solid season, and terrific when compared to the team around him.  Jack Wilson would’ve looked good in that Minnesota mucky muck last year.  Cuddyer hits a ton of ground balls and he’s not a huge homer threat.  I’d say if he repeats his 2011, it’s a win for him and his fantasy owners, especially since he has 2nd base eligibility.  This isn’t great news for fans of the sexy 3rd base prospect, Nolan Arenado.  Cuddyer, you’re such a prospblocker!

Kelly Shoppach – Signed with Sawx to be the weak side of a platoon with Saltymochachino.  It doesn’t take a genius to know that when you get a situational hitter for half of a platoon when you have a switch hitter (Salty), it’s not a great sign.  This does a lot more for real baseball than it does for fantasy baseball.  Bummer, that’s no fun.  In two catcher leagues, Saltymochachino will still have some value, but the reduced ABs will make it hard to own him in most leagues.

Josh Willingham – The Other White Meat is headed to the land of lakes — butter!  Conventional wisdom says Willingham is a decent 25-homer, .250 hitter.  Conventional wisdom also says middle-aged men pretend to go to conventions but really have another family in a different state, so don’t always trust conventional wisdom.  Instead of Willingham, I’d prefer a fifth fantasy outfielder in a hitter’s park with upside (say Chris Heisey).

Mike Cameron – Signed a deal with the Nats.  Deal is full of performance-based incentives.  Stop eating the contract, Mike!  It’s performance-based, not performance-enhancing.

Allen Craig – Might be ready for Opening Day.  Craig said, “I asked the doctor directly, when he thought I’d be playing and he said in 4-to-5 months I should be playing, which is right around Opening Day.  Then I asked him for another lollipop and he said no.  A real day of ups and downs!”

Jason Kubel – Signed with the Diamondbacks.  Before this signing, Kubel was most well known for his mention in Ben Zobrist’s wife, a Christian singer, song, “Here’s The Church, Here’s The Steeple, God’s Fifth Outfielder Is Jason Kubel.”  God plays in pretty deep leagues though (omniscience can’t hurt, right?).  Kubel is one of those solid picks for NL-Only leagues — not flashy, gets some stats (20/80/.270), but a yawnstipating pick for mixed leagues for having the same attributes.

Nick Punto – Signed with the Sawx for bench depth.  This is the equivalent to you going into the doctor to electively have an appendix inserted into your body.

Let’s change the way we eat, let’s change the way we live and let’s change the Twins closer.  Joe Nathan is now the closer with two saves this weekend.  As I kinda said last week, Matt Capps was pitching so bad, he picked up Joe Nathan in his fantasy league.  And that’s me paraphrasing me!  Since Joe Nathan and Ron Gardenhire met on match.com many years ago, their relationship has blossomed from heated affair to full blown love.  They’re even Facebook official.  Assuming Nathan doesn’t cough up five leads in the matter of a week, he should have the closer job for the rest of the season.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Scott Baker – Placed on the DL with a muscle strain in his elbow, but is only supposed to miss one more start.  Mr. Baker also sounds like a Clue character.  Speaking of which, Clue has been updated, which makes me feel old.  There’s no more conservatory or lead pipe.  Now it’s shizz like, “Colonel Mustard in the spa with the trophy.”  I guess a lead pipe was too scary sounding.  So murdering someone with a common object like a trophy isn’t scary?  Also, Colonel Mustard in a spa?  He’s a decorated officer!  Clue, that’s a fail with a hashtag.

Ryan Braun – Has no get up and go because he had da calf on ice.  Could be back on Monday.

John Axford – K-Rod waived his option so the Brewers could use him in any capacity, which is north of tenacity.  So the Brewers chose to use K-Rod to setup Axford this weekend.  “I beat up my father-in-law over much less.”  Right now, you have to hold both K-Rod and Axford, but it looks like Axford is the first choice.

Jose Reyes – Supposed to return on Tuesday.  I’ll believe it when I see it.  “Grey, you have no faith in medicine.”  That’s Jack White reading Razzball.

Jason Isringhausen – The Mets said it would be a closer by committee.  Is anything done better by committee besides jerk seasoning, which is flavor by committee?  Mets also said Isringhausen would get first crack, but I still believe that’s to raise his trade value.

Blake Beavan – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Has a pretty hideous K-rate, i.e., Blake not so lively.  Also, Bedard’s either going to take his rotation spot or he’s going to pitch in Fenway next.

Mike Carp – Was recalled on Sunday.  No relation to Mike Trout.  Carp hit 21 homers in 65 games in the PCL, which is like hitting with an aluminum bat on the moon.  He also doesn’t have guaranteed playing time.  Obviously he’s worth a flyer right now in AL-Only leagues.

Matt Harrison – 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Harrison now has an ERA of 2.91, my sweet lord.  I wouldn’t pick him up because of his walks and lack of Ks, but he proves the theory that the best spot starter is the pitcher facing the Mariners in Safeco (followed closely by the Padres in Petco).

Shaun Marcum – 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks and the win in Coors.  Kind of start I really don’t mind being sonavabenched on.  Marcum also left with a stiff neck, but he just got a Viagra stuck in his throat and should be fine for his next start.

Kyle Kendrick – 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 baserunners, 0 Ks.  I wouldn’t pick him up with your team.

Ryan Madson – 2/3 IP, 1 ER.  Madson always seems to struggle when it’s being reported that he could lose his job in the near future.  Stop watching Lifetime movies in the bullpen and cowboy up!

Chase Utley – 0-for-4 with his 9th steal, but only has 4 homers on the year.  To fix his knee, did the doctors attach his arms to hips and put his legs on his shoulders?

Josh Beckett – 8 IP, 0 ER, 1 hit, 0 walks and 6 Ks vs. Jeff Niemann (8 IP, 0 ER, 2 hits, 2 walks, 10 Ks).  Lower the mound!  Beckett’s obviously an ace this year.  As for Neimann, I don’t trust him because of his usually pedestrian K-rate, but this was obviously a great start against a tough team, which followed his great start vs. the Yankees.  He gets the Royals and A’s next.

Alex Presley – 3-for-6, 3 RBIs and his 4th steal.  Jose Tabata who?!  Um, the guy that’s going to return and take Presley’s spot.  Yeah, I’m not sure how this is gonna shake out yet, but that doesn’t mean you can’t grab Presley in the mean’s while.

Brett Gardner – 3-for-4, 3 runs and 2 steals.  Since May 1st, he’s hitting .318 with 22 steals.  Cust kayin’.

Phil Hughes – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Hasn’t gone more than 90 pitches in any start this year.  Cashman must be fine-tuning Joba Rules.  Guess it’s better than Pavano Rules, which was hit Pavano over the head with a blunt object and bury him in the Pine Barrens.

Travis Snider – 2-for-4 and a steal.  Hitting over .400 in the last week with three steals in the last 4 games.  Russell Martin says, “You’re welcome.”

Zack Cozart – 2-for-4, hitting .400 since his call up and yesterday he homered.  See, the Reds didn’t even need to go to the free clinic to rid themselves of their bad case of the Renteria’s.

Homer Bailey – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks and Bailey didn’t get hurt.  It’s an early Christmas miracle!

Felipe Paulino – 7 Ip, 4 ER, 8 baserunners, 8 Ks.  That’s eight baserunners and eight Ks, not infinity.  Though it may as well be for Paulino.

Grady Sizemore – Day-to-day with a knee contusion.  His career trajectory is the exact opposite of everyone else who has ever taken nude photos of themselves.

Matt Wieters – 2-for-4 with a homer off Frank Herrmann.  When I saw Herrmann’s last name, it made me think of one of those spray painted, graffiti shirts you and your significant other got when you were fifteen.  I wonder if his wife has an Indians jersey with the last name, Hisgirl.

Nick Punto – His elbow is forcing him out for the year.  Sounds like his elbow probably owns Punto in fantasy.

Chase Headley – Might need an MRI on Monday for his calf.  BTW, what do you call Padre hitters that you only own in deep leagues?  Deep Friars.

Danny Espinosa – 3-for-5 with his 17th homer and just missed his 18th.  Anyone that has doubts about him hasn’t seen him swing the bat.  On a side note, Davey Johnson came out to argue the just miss was a home run and he looks like one of those computer-aged photos of what JFK would look like now.  One small step for the Nats, I suppose.

Tom Gorzelanny – Variety reported he was ankled from his start.

Jair Jurrjens – 5 IP, 6 ER as the Fangraphs Database laughed maniacally.

Mike Stanton – Hit two home runs on Saturday to bring his season total to 20.  I say he hits 40+ homers next year, assuming the Mayans are wrong and there is a next year.  “Why are we buying a new calender?”  That’s a young Mayan talking to his elder in December.

Emilio Bonifacio – 2-for-4, 2 runs.  Emily Boneface has the highest OBP for a leadoff hitter, has stolen 6 bases in the last week, has a 16-game hitting streak and calculated pi to 2.7 trillion decimal places.

Hanley Ramirez – 2-for-4 with a satisfying slam & legs.  Hitting .383 in July with 4 homers and 2 steals.  Jack McKeon just knows how to talk to the kids!

Javier Vazquez – 7 IP, 3 ER, 4 baserunners (no walks), 10 Ks.  That’s as impressive as I’ve seen Vazquez this year.  If he’s available in any leagues, I’d get on board for his next start vs. the Padres.

Vladimir Guerrero – To the DL with a small fracture in his hand after being hit by a pitch.  Orioles knew there was something wrong when Vlad saw a pitch and didn’t swing the bat.

David Aardsma – Went for Tommy John surgery.  In related news, Tommy John is collecting nickels for all the times he’s mentioned.  “Who needs the Hall of Fame?  I got nickels, snitches!”

Peter Bourjos – To the DL, but Trout looks pretty overmatched so far.  Might want to look elsewhere.  In keepers, you obviously ignore early results.

Jeff Keppinger – 3-for-5 and Blanco Polanco now has homers in back-to-back games.  He’s like jarred salsa; he’s not very hot, but he’ll still give you indigestion.

Matt Downs – Out while his wife, Leah, has a child.  Yes, her name is Leah Downs.  I’d say!

Gio Gonzalez – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks.  He’s always brilliant at home.  BTW, realizing that every good pitching park ends in co — Petco, Safeco, Metco — Oakland’s stadium now goes by O.co, which I’m not even sure how to pronounce.  How about, “What the eff.co?”  Senior exec, “Corporate’s coming down hard on us to rebrand ourselves.”  Junior exec, “How about a name that no one can pronounce?”  Senior exec, “I’m gonna tell our boss that just so you’re fired, Stevens!”  Later that day, Boss, “A name we can’t pronounce?  That’s crazy enough to work!”

Tommy John surgery, Dr. Freeze, Adam Wainwright.  Words you just don’t want to hear.  Okay, not Dr. Freeze as much unless you only get your news from Razzball, which I’m fine with but you may walk around calling people schmohawks and telling your girlfriend her meatloaf was kinda yawnstipating.  Rudy totally called this one! (Just a fraction too early, like 12 months.)  Obviously, this is terrible news for Wainwright owners (and kinda Wainwright himself).  If you are drafting right now, assume Wainwright will miss lots of time, if not the whole season.  I plan on moving Wainwright to the end of the top 80 starters.  I wouldn’t draft Wainwright in any league.  I also don’t believe in this, “Ooh, I’ll draft Wainwright for a dollar and sit him on my bench for a year in keepers.”  You’re using a bench spot that is critical to winning this year, which everyone should be trying to do.  Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball news:

Cliff Lee – Strained ab muscle.  He is like an apple.  The only thing that leaves a bad taste in your mouth is his core.  Word on the streets is he’ll be fine.  Going too high in drafts for me to take him anyway, so there’s that.

Corey Hart – Said on Monday that he played 2010 without contacts.  You’d think the Brewers could spring for some prescription sunglasses for night games.

Neftali Feliz – The Rangers are stretching him out to see if he can move into the rotation.  If it happens, he would immediately be in the top 40 starters, right behind Marcum in the tier, “I kinda love these guys.”  I’m not completely convinced it is going to happen as Ron Washington has said he likes Feliz getting the final three outs.  Also, it could be one of those shituations where Feliz looks great in the rotation and Mark Lowe is the closer for three days, gets rocked and Feliz is the closer again.  The good thing about this is if you draft Feliz, he’ll have value wherever he ends up.

Vicente Padilla – His forearm didn’t say it was a forearm before it grabbed his nerve and now his nerve has a case of entrapment.  Or something.  Grey no doctor.  Padilla does need elbow surgery, but he shouldn’t have been drafted in any leagues in the first place.  BTW, Padilla before the elbow pain.  Padilla after the elbow pain.

Matt Kemp – Reports say he dropped 15 pounds in the offseason.  I thought Rihanna weighed at least a couple more pounds than that.

Brian Roberts – Going for X-rays on his neck.  Blech.  Do me a favor and don’t draft him.  He’s like Mr. Glass brittle.

Alfredo Simon – There’s no plan right now to exonerate Simon in manslaughter charges.  It’s Oriole profiling.  This pattern goes all the way back to Ben McDonald when he was accused of using his right hand to fondle three men’s testicles at the same time at a Sandals resort.

Francisco Liriano – Threw a bullpen session on Tuesday after complaining of some shoulder tightness last week.  I’m staying cautiously optimistic about Liriano, thinking that if you drafted him last week right after the shoulder tightness news came out you might’ve got yourself a bit of a discount.

Nick Punto – Out 8-12 weeks with a sports hernia.  Calling his hernia a ‘sports’ hernia is both a literal and figurative stretch.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Twins Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Minnesota native Sooze over at Babes Love Baseball.

1) Last year, the Yankees’ and Mets’ new stadia (or ‘stadiums’ for the bourgeois) had a huge impact on hitter values.  Any word on whether Target Field will lead to some hitter bargains?

It looks like Target Field will actually be more of a neutral park, which favors neither hitters nor pitchers, but there are a couple interesting aspects: there is a ton less foul territory than there was at the Metrodome, and outfielders will actually be able to spot the baseballs in the sky as opposed to losing them in the whiteness of the dome.  Also, it’s a three-foot longer trip to straight-away center field, which houses a few black spruce trees, so I suppose that makes it more of a pitcher-friendly stadium.  I wonder how often it will snow there?

2) Joe Mauer turned on the power last year hitting one less HR (28) than he had in 2006-2008.  He hit a ridiculous 16 of those HRs to the opposite field.  The average on the projection systems is about 20.  What do you think – over, under, or push on 20 HRs in 2010 for Mauer.

Over. He missed the entire month of April last season, and there is nothing — including his .429 batting average and .600 slugging percentage so far this Spring — which says he will under-perform compared to 2009.  I say he nails 30 bombs and 100 RBI this year.  And then proposes to me.

3) The Twins OF of Cuddyer/Span/Delmon Young with some Kubel thrown in projects to be rather awful defensively.  Any concerns on how this might impact the young Twins pitchers?

4) Give me the over/under/push on the following:
Morneau 29 HRs — over
Kubel 80 RBI – push
Span 25 SB – push
Punto 1 HR — under (seriously. He’ll have negative 1 probably)
Slowey 150 IP — over
Liriano 4.50 ERA — under

5) Ron Gardenhire has an understandable weakness for light-hitting infielders given he was one during his playing career.  Are you concerned he might gillooly Orlando Hudson or JJ Hardy to make sure he can get both Nick Punto and Brendan Harris into the lineup?

I hope Gardy doesn’t mess with the middle infield, I like it just the way it is.  Punto and Harris are just going to have to deal with being mediocre at best, and thank their lucky stars they are even on a big league roster.  And then they can high five each other on their way back to the bench during the platoon switch.

I’m not sure if Jeff Kent will retire. I’m sure his wife doesn’t want him to retire because he seems like he’d be a miserable prick around the house. Why doesn’t this remote work?! She sighs, “You have to turn on the TV first.” Maybe he lands as a DH somewhere in the AL. Either way, Kent prolly won’t be on the Dodgers next year. So that opens 2nd base in 2009 for the Dodgers. This should be filled by Blake DeWitt, no relation to Joyce DeWitt, against righties and Mark Loretta against the occasional lefty. Okay, so what can we expect from Blake DeWitt for 2009 and why is he a fantasy sleeper?

In 2008, Blake DeWitt was rushed to the majors to fill-in at 3rd base prior to the Casey Blake move. He was marginally meh, but never quite eh or feh. He has limited power and speed. Kent could prolly out-homer him even in his 41st year on the planet and Rickey Henderson could still outrun him. Blake’s ideal 2009 has him at about 60/14/75/.275/7. Kelly Johnson just yawned reading those numbers.  Now Blake also has corner and middle eligibility (here’s a list of all the players that have multiple position eligiblity for 2009), and there won’t be many 2nd basemen who come as discounted as Blake in 2009 fantasy drafts. Some of the schmohawks I’ve seen drafted before Blake are Mark Loretta, David Eckstein, Nick Punto, Mark Grudzielanek and Marco Scutaro.  I just vomited in my mouth writing some of those names. So towards the end of your NL-Only drafts or very deep mixed leagues, Blake DeWitt is a good sleeper name to have stashed away.