No, this is not a cheerleading move that requires an upside down split at the top of a human pyramid or some new fangled dessert menu item. Instead, it is a much less exciting and tasty occurrence with the pitchers throwing in Coors tonight. Typically, the intro paragraph is a great place to layout the best value of the day. Specifically, the best value pitcher of the day. Today however, it’s going to be used as a blanket statement to avoid stuffing my picks below with a ton of Yankees and Rockies hitters. Thanks to continuous interleague play (which I really can’t stand) we get a fun, little two game home and home between the Rox and the Yanks. Tonight will be game two of the Coors field showdown, which means all your Yankee starters should be good and used to the elevation and ready to drop a ton of fantasy points on poor Chad Bettis. At first glance you might think to load up on all the lefty bats the Yankees have. If you dig into Bettis’ stats a bit, though, you’ll notice that for his career (and this season) righties have actually hit him for a better average and a higher slugging percentage (.110 points higher to be exact). Some sneaky, against the grain plays might be Rob Refsnyder and Starlin Castro in the middle infield. On the other side of the rubber will be Ivan Nova who, believe it or not, also has some reverse splits going on. For his career, his platoon splits are about even, with an ever so slight nod to the righties. If you just take a look at this year so far you’ll see a .100 point uptick in OPS for righties vs. lefties. This is very rare for a right handed hurler and it’s worth noting. Most DFS players will blindly follow left/right match-ups when making a lineup decision. While it may not matter it what could be a typical Oprah-style showdown at Coors (“You get a homer, you get a homer, you get a homer…) it could also be a nice little edge for those keen enough to do some digging. Mark Reynolds and Nick Hundley may be avoided by many and could turn a nice profit tonight. Let’s see what else is cooking with today’s picks:
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Chris Sale, SP: $11,500 – It’s another day chock full of aces. Fortunately, today the slate is broken up into two parts. Even more awesome, the early games don’t kick off until 3 EST, which means you can actually read this AND get an early lineup in on time. The early docket is a 5 game slate that features the Coors game. If you prefer a non-Coors slate, then the night is all yours. I’ll try to focus some on each, but the early slate will be mostly Coors plays for me. As for the night aces, I’ve mentioned before that I tend to give a pitcher going at home the edge when it’s close, and it’s very close tonight. Sale is at home AND gets to face off against Mike Pelfrey. That all adds up to being the top ace for me tonight. For what it’s worth, Cueto, at home, against the strikeout prone Brewers would be my ace de jour for the early slate.
Steven Wright, SP: $11,100 – This is like deja vu all over again. The last time I made my picks it seems like most of this same group of pitchers was starting. It’s pick your poison at the top for aces, but don’t hesitate to include Steven Wright on that list as well. If you stuck with me and started him last time out you got 7.1 IP, 0 ER and 6 Ks. Not too shabby. I imagine plenty of people will be scared off by the O’s, but we’re not those people.
Nate Karns, SP: $8,000 – Typically, I’d be all aboard throwing a lefty out there against the Mariners, but Drew Smyly needs to show me he can piece something together before I trust him with my money. Instead, I’m more than willing to pick on the Rays. There’s no one in this offense that scares me at all, plus there’s always the “Revenge Game” narrative. Though, to be fair, I’m not sure I’d be too upset to get out of Tampa Bay, Cust kayin.
Anthony Desclafani, SP: $8,100 – Just my weekly reminder that a) the Braves are bad, b) They are barely outhomering Mark Trumbo as a team and c) isn’t needed because of a) and b).
Josh Phegley, C: $3,100 – We’ll have to keep an eye on this one. The A’s have seen a slew of lefties lately and Phegley has gotten a lot of work because of it. If he’s in there again, he’s cheap and typically bats 6th. Sign me up.
Tommy Joseph, 1B: $4,000 – I’ve always wanted to do this, so here it goes: “Did you know that Marco Estrada has the second highest fly ball percentage in the league? Me either until I started digging into his numbers. 48.5% is second only to Drew Smyly’s 51.0%. However, their HR/FB ratios are completely opposite. In fact, Estrada’s is about half of Smyly’s (7.4% vs. 14%). It makes sense then that Estrada’s ERA is 2.41, his FIP is 3.82 and his xFIP checks in at 4.68. That’s more like the Estrada we know and love. All this boils down to a visit from the regression faires on the horizon.” And that’s me quoting me! Well, there were no fairies in sight last week and I’m not sure the Phillies are the team to force that correction, but Joseph might be up to the task. We’ll just have to check and make sure he’s in the lineup tonight. If not, Ryan Howard is a pivot, though not a great one.
Dae-Ho Lee, 1B: $3,100 – If Smyly doesn’t right the ship tonight, we might as well take advantage. Lee is a nice, cheap source of power. He’s also already taken Smyly yard earlier this year.
Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF: $2,700 – Whit’s match-up isn’t ideal, but the price point and lineup position sure are. A sub $3,000 leadoff hitter is almost match-up proof. He’s the cheapest usable second baseman and he’s been red hot. Happiness is a cheap middle infielder.
Maikel Franco, 3B: $3,100 – With any luck, Prospect Mike is putting his time away from Razzball to good use and has been changing the ice pack on Maikel’s knee with the proper frequency. This is way too cheap for a hitter of his caliber. Add in the above note about Estrada’s fly ball percentage and I’m all aboard the Philly express.
Adonis Garcia, 3B: $2,700 – This is really scraping the bottom of the barrel, but if you wanted to roster Sale and Wright tonight, you might need to do some bargain shopping. The Braves aren’t good, but much like the world’s second tallest midget, Garcia is probably the Brave’s second best hitter right now. Not awful for $2,700.
Tim Anderson, SS: $2,000 – I doubt I even look at a different shortstop tonight with Anderson out there at this price, facing Mike Pelfrey. The only thing that will give me pause is if he’s batting 9th. It’s been two straight games in the leadoff spot for the fresh call-up and he responded with a pair of hits and a run scored last night. That should earn him another start atop the lineup and plenty of action in all my lineups.
Adam Duvall, OF: $4,400 – With all that money saved at shortstop, I’ll be looking to fit in the hottest Reds hitter facing the hottest pitching gas can in all the land. Of course, last time I tried to pick on Bud Norris he pitched a gem, but I wouldn’t bet on that happening twice.
Khris Davis, OF: $3,700 – Homers win tournaments and baby Khrush has been doling them out like candy. Lefty Derek Holland is on the mound tonight and Khris is even more generous with the power when facing a lefty. His OPS is a whopping .925 vs. LHP so far and he’s got the hot hand.
Carlos Gomez, OF: $3,600 – Gomez has also been heating up lately. I wouldn’t say he’s on fire just yet, but it’s something. There weren’t many candidates for BvP special of the night (Eric Hosmer and his 3 HRs off Corey Kluber was the other option) so I’m going with Gomez. In 26 ABs vs. Adam Wainwright Gomez has 9 hits (.346), 1 HR and 2 SBs.
Byron Buxton, OF: $2,400 – I’m such a sucker for this kid. He’s really just another cheap option if you need some salary relief that won’t kill you. Buxton certainly has the most upside of anyone else you’ll find in this group.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
It’s summer in Atlanta Georgia, there is always a chance for a thunderstorm, ALWAYS. Just keep an eye on things down there. There was a similar forecast last night and the game went off without a hitch.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers are the biggest favorite for the early games at -220 while Chris Sale and the White Sox take the late game honors at -170. The Rockies have the biggest over/under for the day with a 12 run total. Surprise, surprise. The biggest non-Coors over/under is found in Boston tonight where Kevin Gausman vs. Steven Wright features a 9 run total. Even Vegas doesn’t know what to make of the knuckleball. The lowest totals for the day can both be found during the early games. LAD (Kershaw) @ ARI (Corbin) and MIL (Nelson) @ SF (Cueto) both have a 7 run total. During the night games the lowest total is 7.5 runs in the CLE (Kluber) @ KC (Kennedy) game.
