Fantasy Baseball Advice

Now it’s time for everyone’s favorite game, Fantasy Baseball, Fun With Numbers.  Ding, ding, ding… Bassoon… Triangle!  Triangle!  Triangle!  Cow bell!  More cow bell!  One last ding.  In today’s installment of Fantasy Baseball, Fun With Numbers, we’re going to look at some outfielders and try to figure out if maybe the numbers tell a different story than their names tell.  Anyway, here’s the latest in Fantasy Baseball, Fun With Numbers:

Player A – Last season, 95/17/71/.303/29
Player B – Last season, 112/22/66/.280/12

Player A is Johnny Damon, Player B is Curtis Granderson

Player A – In 362 at-bats Pre-All Star, 50/4/39/.285/23
Player B – In 379 at-bats Pre-All Star, 50/5/31/.253/21

Player A is Alex Rios, Player B is Carlos Gomez

Player A – In 248 at-bats Post-All Star, 36/9/39/.278/9
Player B – In 268 at-bats Post-All Star, 46/9/25/.299/13

Player A is Krispie Young, Player B is Matt Kemp.

Player A – In 218 at-bats Post-All Star, 42/9/36/.335/3
Player B – In 198 at-bats Post-All Star, 46/10/37/.288/3

Player A is Andre Ethier, Player B is Mark DeRosa

Player A – In 557 at-bats last year, 66/15/84/.293/7
Player B – In 575 at-bats last year, 80/10/69/.290/14

Player A is Garrett Anderson, Player B is Delmon Young

Player A – In 356 at-bats last year, 52/15/42/.250/1
Player B – In 340 at-bats last year, 53/20/55/.235/2

Player A is Justin Upton, Player B is Jim Edmonds.  This is not an endorsement of Jim Edmonds, but a warning on Upton.

Player A – In 502 at-bats last year, 74/17/61/.249/6
Player B – In 461 at-bats last year, 59/22/73/.260/6

Player A is Jeremy Hermida, Player B is Cody Ross

Player A – In 221 at-bats Post-All Star, 30/7/29/.299/11
Player B – In 231 at-bats Post-All Star, 38/4/20/.290/15

Player A is Lastings Milledge, Player B is Jacoby Ellsbury

Player A – In 247 at-bats Post-All Star, 38/11/35/.296/2
Player B – In 251 at-bats Post-All Star, 43/9/29/.311/14

Player A is Josh Hamilton, Player B is Shane Victorino… VICTORINO!

Oh, they’re not just bad.  Nah, I outdid even myself this time.  On this drafternoon, I picked a team that is near-perfectly awful.  They simultaneously suck and blow.  On a scale of one to ten, they’re a negative seven.  I did the math!  Somehow I managed to get a team where not one hitter projects for more than twelve home runs.  If someone in the Royals brass gets wind of my drafting skills, I may get a job!  If you think I’m being facetious (which was recently outlawed in Madagascar), shame on you.  And shame on this team!  I took part in a fantasy baseball draft this past Saturday to pick the worst fantasy baseball team.  And I think I done did it.  My co-conspirators in this were:

Roto Rob
Tirico Suave
Drunk Jays Fans
Fantasy Baseball Cafe
Fantasy Pros 911
Hire Jim Essian
Sharapova’s Thigh
Fantasy Baseball Geeks
Beyond the Box Score

Come with me as I take out the trash:

Random thoughts about various rounds of the draft:

ROUND 1 – I had my eye on Ronnie Belliard like only Mrs. Belliard could ever know.  He’s eligible at 1st!  Need I continue?  Okay, he’s on the Nats.  Should I go on?  His K rate has been going up.  More?  He’s also eligible at 3rd.  All right, one more thing.  He’s projected for 400 ABs and 11 home runs.  Bleh, and thank you.

ROUND 2 – It was between Chone Fuggums and Lousy Castillo.  Had to go with the more shallow position of 3rd base.  Fuggums will probably get 500 ABs, and, I don’t know, 4 HRs.  Not a bad guy for the Not Corner.

ROUND 3 – And Lousy Castillo makes it back to me.  Projected for 487 ABs and… Wait for it… Here it comes… Hold on, I have an itch… All right, here it is… Zero home runs!  WTF?  How is that even possible?

ROUND 4 – Okay, I’ve waited on crappy outfielders long enough.  Skip Suckmaker, you’re mine!  Thank you, LaRussa.

ROUND 5 – I’m actually worried about my Runs at this point.  No, I didn’t just drink some Mexican water.  So to clog up my tailpipe, I select Erick Aybar.  He’s projected for less than 50 Runs and over 400 ABs.  Later I will add his Brother in Razzball Charms.

ROUND 6 – One thing I really notice about drafting craptacular players, everyone has a different draft sheet.  It’s like you got ten owners together that have all been in solitary confinement for the last six months.  Everyone knows who’s crappy, but nobody knows which order anyone else is going to take them, so guys last longer than you think they will.  Without further ado, Brian Schneider.

ROUND 7 – And because no one knows when anyone is drafting a player, you (or at least I) want to fill up your (my) Utility spot with another catcher that I know will rack up the ABs and little else — Yadier Molina.

ROUND 8 – Super futility man, Willie Aybar.

ROUND 9 – Finally, I take a pitcher.  Not just any pitcher, but a pitcher worthy of a Razzball Spotlight, Gorilla Ponson.

ROUND 10 – B. Giles because anyone who’s ever played any level of baseball can put up his stats.

ROUND 11 – Travis Ishikawa.  Everyone loses a job on your fantasy Razzball team, so backups are very helpful and Giants hitters are even more so.  Worst case scenario, Ishikawa and Belliard will make a nice blahtoon.

ROUND 12 – Vicente Padilla, probably my riskiest pick so far.  He can’t make it out of May with a job, can he?

ROUND 13 – Endy Chavez.  Nicest thing anyone can ever say about a guy on your Fantasy Razzball team, “He’s a great fielder!”

ROUND  14 – DeWayne Wise. Ozzie’s crazy enough to give him 500 ABs, but he’s not crazy enough to lead him off, is he?

ROUND 15 – Having played this league last year, I knew anyone I took on the pitching side would lose their job sooner than later if I was playing right.  With his 150th pick, Grey selects Danys Baez, a leading candidate for an Orioles rotation spot.  You heard me right, non-Orioles fans.  Baez might be an Orioles starter this year.  How’s dem apples?  Delicious!

ROUND 16 – Mark Buerhle.  Tried to balance all of the starters I was going to lose with a guy who can give me 200 lame innings.  There’s a chance I bench him until he gets cold.

ROUND 17 – Matt Harrison.  Okay, I’m a sucker for sucky Texas pitchers.

ROUND 18 – Jamie Moyer.  Another innings eater-slash-guy you can’t believe is still a major league starter.

ROUND 19/20 – Chris Dickerson and Gerald Laird.   Dickerson’s a K machine, but he’s the only guy on my entire team with any downside.  I’ll be honest.  I might be patroling the waiver wire for a Dickerson replacement.  As for Laird, it’s really hard to resist taking an extra catcher.  They’re all so good!

ROUND 23/24 – Jesse Litsch and Mike Pelfrey.  Some of you may be sad to see these guys here because you have them on your regular fantasy teams.  Let’s just say, I’m hoping these guys stay healthy because they could be in for an awfully wonderful year.

ROUND 25/26/27 – Kevin Frandsen and Cristian Guzman and Gabe Gross.  Not sure how this crapfecta lasted this long, but I just had to back up some of my other guys that are sure to lose playing time.  Actually, if I played my cards right, some of them might have lost playing time already.  Razztastic!

I did a Google search for Chris Davis and it said, “Did you mean Superman?”  Weird!  The force is very strong in this young Texas Ranger.  Chuck Norris drives an ice cream truck covered in human skulls; Chris Davis serves the Bomb Pops.  I’m not sure if there’s anyone in all of fantasy baseball this year who has climbed further in a shorter time during this offseason.  I’ve done my own basting of the turkey with a Chris Davis sleeper post.   My fantasy hymen is broken!  In my defense, that post was published mid-December and I wrote it sometime in late-November.   When I wrote that, Davis was going after Zimmerman, Huff and Atkins in drafts — ah, those were the days — but he’s since flipped the script on them.   That makes sense, but now he seems to be shooting even further up draft sheets.  Then someone mentioned to me in our fantasy baseball forums or somewhere in the comments or somewhere on the site, I don’t know where, that they drafted Mark Reynolds and they called him a poor man’s Chris Davis.  You know what’s funny about this?  Not funny funny, but not really funny funny.  Chris Davis has never done any of this over a full season, but Mark Reynolds has, so Chris Davis should be a poor man’s Mark Reynolds, shouldn’t he?

I projected Chris Davis for 75/30/95/.275/3 and Reynolds at 75/31/100/.255/7.   To take me out of the equation, ZIPS projects Mark Reynolds for 88/28/89/.257/8 and Chris Davis for 84/33/103/.263/6.  Um, those numbers are pretty close for each player.  Both play in hitter’s parks, so there’s not much of an edge there.  Davis has shown he has a greater propensity for line drives so his average should be better than Reynolds, but those projections account for that.  Davis is a .260-.280 hitter.  Reynolds is a .240-.260 hitter.

Now if they both hit .260, they’re more or less equal.  If Davis hits .263 and Reynolds hits .250, then the impact of Chris Davis’s AVG on your team vs. Mark Reynolds is .001 (if you assume the real difference is .013 and they are one of 13 hitters on your team.)  Then you have to realize Davis’s projections carry more risk.  Point Shares has Davis and Reynolds at #49 and #126, respectively.  But why is Chris Davis’s ADP 67 in ESPN and Reynolds is being drafted at 208?

The reality is that anyone taken in lower rounds is going to hurt you somewhere.  People seem to be scared off a low average more than low HRs/RBIs.  Not sure why.  You can take a really good SP and Reynolds; say C-Bill or Beckett and Reynolds.  Or you can draft Davis and Andy Sonnanstine.  Hmm… Maybe that’s Mark Reynolds in Chuck Norris’s ice cream truck.

This was, as they say in Italy, an Experto Callaspo AL-Only draft.  What AL-Only means to me? Thanks for asking, random italicized voice.  It means I probably won’t have one pitcher that I would usually have in a mixed league.  I contemplated about how I wanted to go about this draft.  It’s good to have a game plan, ya know?  So I decided, since I don’t really like AL pitchers, I would get solid pitchers anyway.  Zoinks!  I figured that solid pitchers would be at a premium and if I got my share, I’d be in good shape.  Also, from my knowledge of other ‘pert drafts, no one drafts starters early, so while they’re zigging, I decided to zag.  “Knowing your opponents’ weaknesses is half the duel,” Aaron Burr.  When you see my pitchers, you’ll see I didn’t really get that many great ones, but for AL-Only I have a top three pitching staff going into the season.  Then there’s the strategy I employed for hitters.  I decided to punt catchers, of course, and up the middle.  Punting the MIs was because I knew who I wanted late and I knew guys like Alexei Ramirez would go way early (He went in the 2nd round.)  Okay, before I get to my thoughts I jotted down during the AL-Only draft, here’s my co-conspirators:

Fantasy Baseball Dugout
The Fantasy Man
Fantasy Sports Commissioner Training Institute
Rotohelp
Sporting News
ProFantasy Baseball
Roto Central
Advanced Fantasy Baseball
Fantasy Sports R Us
Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
Fanball

Here’s my team:

C:  Taylor Teagarden (19)
1B: Carlos Pena (3)
2B: Asdrubal Cabrera (15)
SS: Jed Lowrie (11)
3B: Brandon Wood (12)
MI: Wilson Betemit (23)
CI:  Jason Giambi (10)
OF: Carlos Quentin (1)
OF: Carl Crawford (2)
OF: Vernon Wells (5)
OF: Franklin Gutierrez (14)
OF: Brett Gardner (16)
UT: DeWayne Wise (25)
P:  James Shields (4)
P:  Joba Chamberlain (6)
P:  John Danks (7)
P:  Brad Ziegler (8)
P:  Brandon Lyon (9)
P:  Anthony Reyes (13)
P:  Dan Wheeler (17)
P:  Kevin Millwood (18)
P:  Rafael Betancourt (22)
Bench: Melky Cabrera (20), Wladimir Balentien (21), Matt Thornton (24), Jeremy Sowers (26), Damaso Marte (27)

Notes I jotted down during the draft:

ROUND 1 & 2 – I get Carlos N Carl with my first two picks.  Yuck.  Seriously, I hate AL-Only.  I have no idea where all the good players have gone, but I think it’s into the NL. (To make matters worst, I drafted the first five rounds, then we needed to do it over because something was wrong with the draft room. (I once loved you, CBS!  Nevermore.)  Then, to make matters even worse, our do over was supposed to be a shot by shot remake of the original, but someone decided to make it an adaptation.  At one point, one of the ‘perts asked another ‘pert if they could see they were giving them the middle finger.  Fun times!)

ROUND 3 – I wanted lots of power from my corners.  That became a pipe dream when Aubrey Huff was drafted ahead of me in the 3rd (!) round.  Drafting Carlos Pena in the third round is a tragic-comedy.

ROUND 4 – James Shields. It was between him and Liriano.  And I got to draft both at one point, but that was the first AL-Only ‘pert draft that we will never speak of again.  Actually, I’m pleased with Shields.

ROUND 5 – Vernon Wells.  This is barely an endorsement of Wells, but he was the last outfielder that’s halfway reliable and he’s supposed to be healthy by April.  Of course, that will turn into June any day now.

ROUND 6 – Joba Chamberlain.  This is really all I needed for my AL-Only staff and the next guy is gluttony at its worst.

ROUND 7 – John Danks.  Hey, Gluttony, good to see you.  Okay, before you call me out for this. Here’s the guys that were taken after him that I could’ve had:

Kevin Slowey – I want Danks over him.  You do too.
Nick Swisher – Okay, but doesn’t have a secure job and will bat .240.
Mike Jacobs – I already drafted the Latin Jacobs.
Orlando Cabrera – Eh.
Denard Span – Blah.
Frank Francisco – Solid pick.
Scott Baker – On the risky pitcher list.
Troy Percival – Too early for him.
Fausto Carmona – Danks is twice the pitcher of Carmona.
Carlos Gomez – Great pick, but because of Crawford I couldn’t have made it.
Gavin Floyd then Joe Saunders then Crapolanco… You get my point.

ROUND 10 – Jason Giambi.  Carlos Pena’s baby daddy.

ROUND 11 & 12 – Jed Lowrie and Brandon Wood.  A) They have the superfecta of eligibility, which is crucial for a single league.  B) They have upside.  C) Would you really have wanted Crapolanco and Orlando Cabrera over these two?  D) As T.J. Lavin would say, “They are both killing it in spring training.”  (Speaking of T.J. Lavin, The Challenge is back in two weeks.  I can’t wait.)

ROUND 13 – Anthony Reyes. This could be the steal of the draft.  Or a guy I drop by May.  Stay tuned!

ROUND 14 – The Big FraGu.  At this point in the draft, there wasn’t even a lot of guys who had starting jobs let alone one that could go 15/15.  Granted, my average is in the dumpster at this point.

ROUND 15 – As…DRUBAL!  I almost took him in the 10th round, but I quickly saw where everyone else’s team stood with middle infielders and I realized I could wait.  This is Grey.  This is Grey on his toes.  (BTW, it’s really sad when you get this excited about Asdrubal Cabrera.  It’s AL-Only.  Small victories.)

ROUND 19 – Taylor Teagarden.  Honestly, I don’t know what his playing time will be like, but if he hits 10 HRs, I win with this pick.  Not to mention, he’s a better defender, so he could see 250+ ABs.  Think Napoli last year.

ROUND 21 – We like to Wladdy… We like to Wladdy…

ROUND 23 – Wilson Betemit.  I think he hits 15 HRs in a super-utility role.  Or flat-out takes over for Josh Fields.  Or I drop him and fill-in my MI spot with someone else.  At this point, Punto, Bobby Crosby and Zobrist were being drafted so this pick is really no harm, no foul.

ROUND 26 – Jeremy Sowers.  For this late in the draft to get a starter on a good team– Oh, who am I kidding?  I’ll probably drop him by April 7th.

Where have all the groin pulls gone?  In my day, you pulled a hammy or a groin, and you liked it!  Now, these kids are all about obliques.  What in tarnation is an oblique?  Where is it?  Is it even in your body?  Do you acquire it in some seedy alley in Tijuana?  Hurt your femur, dang’nabbit!  So Trevor Hoffman is laid up for a few with a strained oblique.  He’ll probably miss the first week of the season and, as with old people, they don’t bounce back like they used to, even with tennis balls on their walker.  So Trevor Hoffman might be out for longer than a week, then this injury might turn out to be a recurring injury that knocks him out for a week every month or so.  Who knows? I don’t even know what an oblique is, but it sounds vague.  Filling in for Hoffman might be Todd Coffey (my personal favorite), Carlos Villanueva (having a rough spring) and Seth McClung (bit more of a not-so-great starter than a not-so-great reliever).  I’d backup Hoffman with McClung, Coffey then Villanueva, in that order.  I don’t think Villanueva with his lack of closer experience and poor spring is getting the call.  Coffey is wild, homer-prone and jittery, but has looked none of that in the spring.  Then we have McClung, who sounds like a mouth breather.  I’m thinking it’s McClung.  Could be Coffey.  I’d grab them both until it sorts itself out.  But don’t pull too many important Jenga pieces from your team just to place McClung and/or Coffey on top.  Hoffman is still the closer when healthy.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in spring training for fantasy baseball:

Wilson Betemit – Hit his 5th HR of the spring.  Warning, I just drafted Betemit in an AL-Only league (I’ll reveal my team later today — Future Voila, snitches!), so I might make Betemit a bit of a poster boy for a week or two.  Hey, I gotta have weird outside-the-box-they-make-no-damn-sense sleepers too, right?  Oh, and even with five homers, Josh Fields is still outshining him.

Krispie Young – There’s a chance he opens the year hitting third.  Yum!

Mike Napoli – Might start the year on the DL.  Doesn’t change his projections.  He hit 20 HRs last year in, like, 24 at-bats.

Rich Hill – Won’t be in the Orioles starting rotation.  Shocker!

Max Scherzer – Someone in the comments yesterday said the D’backs are going to give Jobacum 170 innings this year.  That’s pretty silly. (Not silly that a commenter said this.  Silly because it’s true.)  Josh Byrnes, how is he not related to Eric, said Scherzer would get close to 170 innings.  170 innings?!  I keep writing it because it’s so unfathomable to me.  This could be huge for this year, but this could have terrible consequences down the line.  Oh, and how huge for 2009?  That could push him over 200 Ks for this year.  You’re looking at a potential top ten starter if he gets 170 innings.

Wandy Rodriguez – Continuing to nurse injuries.  It’s still very early; I’m still on the Wand-wagon.