Fantasy Baseball Advice

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.

Let the roasting begin!  By my calculations not one closer in the history of baseball, let alone the fantasy era, is worthy of induction to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.

…..Pausing to avoid the onslaught of flying rotten fruits and vegetables…..

I know, you mock only because you care.  Closers simply don’t bring enough to the table due to their limited number of innings pitched.  Consider the point totals of the top 25:

Those are ugly.  The batters get elected with 65 points, and the starting pitchers have to reach 52.  Not one closer has ever reach 36.  The #1 ranked closer, Dennis Eckersley, ranks just 212th among all positions.  The most impressive peak score belongs to Dan Quisenberry, but this is just 243rd best.  Quite simply, Closers only contribute significantly in a single category and therefore do not have a huge impact on a fantasy team since their low innings pitched totals hinder scoring in WHIP, ERA, Wins, and Strikeouts.

I previously argued that starting pitchers should be cut a break since they are not allowed to contribute in five categories since as saves reserved only for relievers.  I stand by this thought process, and argue the difference with closers is fundamental – they are allowed to contribute in all categories, but pitch too few innings to make an impact in all five.  It’s an argument between “incapable” and “not enough playing time”.

Further, consider the following:

- Our own Razzball ‘perts routinely preach the practice of trading away the best closers.
- Most owners consider them a necessary evil.  You land A-Rod at a good price, or in the 1st round, and rejoice.  Or Peavy falls to round 2 and you feel your staff is well on its way.  But when you grab Joe Nathan in Round 3 all you can think about is scrounging around for 2 more decent closers to round out your relief corp.  Without 2 more good ones, you might as well have not drafted any.
- Punting a category is a fairly common practice where an owner decides to save money (or early draft picks) by avoiding high priced closers, and spending the savings elsewhere to create a powerhouse offense or starting rotation.  97% of the time, I looked it up, owners punt saves.  How critical can they be?

Finally, and I openly admit it may be a blind spot to this old greenhorn’s way of thinking, but real Fantasy Baseball is Rotisserie style and not this fly by night, get lucky one week and unlucky the next, head-to-head junk that is so damn popular nowadays.  (Can you hear my next line …When I was a kid we used to have to wait for the Sunday paper in order to get all of the weekly box scores from around the league so the commissioner could compile scores manually using an abacus.)  I say this because a closer’s value does change a bit depending upon league style, and one can truly take advantage of an extra $45 dollars in a roto-league, but less so in head-to-head versions.

Having said all this, in recognition that necessary evils are still necessary, Closers do have a place at the FBHOF, just one without plaques.  Some shine for the Top 5 all time:

1) Dennis Eckersley
In 1990 “Eck” posted an identical ERA and WHIP of 0.61, one of the more remarkable feats over the course of baseball history.  In 73 innings his K/BB ratio was a mind blowing 73:4 and one could argue it was the most dominant stretch of innings ever.  I got to thinking how rare it is to have identical ERA/WHIP scores and did some investigation.

Using 50 innings pitched as the barometer, only 7 pitchers have been able to record an ERA equal to or lower than their WHIP:

Bob Veale was lucky more than anything else.  Giving up 59 hits and 40 walks over the course of 78 or so innings is not exactly impressive as his 1.27 WHIP indicates.  We can safely assume Eckersley had a better season than him.  Up next are Earl Hamilton and Chris Hammond, both of whom are the same boat as Veale, though to a lesser extent.  A 1.11 WHIP is good of course, but not remarkable, and they too overshot their expected ERA’s.

This brings us to Dennys Reyes, Rob Murphy, and Nick Maddox who all kept their WHIP scores under 1.00, a mark of a great season.  The first item to note is Eckersley pitched in approximately 35% more innings than each of them and should be rewarded for his continued greatness over a larger body of work.  Second, you’ll notice Reyes, Murphy, and Maddox combined to record 1 save versus Eckersley’s 48.  I don’t have the means to calculate win expectancy tables, but I can safely say Eckersley also pitched in more difficult and stressful game situations, another mark in his favor.

Finally, and the most obvious, there is an ocean of difference between a 0.61 ERA/WHIP and a 0.83 WHIP/ERA.  Again using the 50 IP barometer, there have been two instances in baseball history where a pitcher recorded a WHIP under 0.65 (Eckersley’s done it twice of course).  In contrast, there has been a whopping 52 instances of 0.85 or better proving he’s in a class all unto himself.  I declare, as many before me done as well, that nobody has ever been as dominant as 1990 Dennis Eckersley.

Oh, his 5 year peak Fantasy Line was 81 IP, 5 W, 0.84 WHIP, 2.14 ERA, 84 K, with 38 saves.  He also had six seasons with 5+ FBHOF points.

2) Dan Quisenberry
Quiz holds the 3rd best single season FBHOF score among closers with 9.8 FBHOF points in 1983.  He’s also the only person to record two seasons of 8 or more points which gives him the best two year run in closer history (17.8 points between 82’ and 83).  His peak score is slightly better than Eckersley (33.3 to 32.4) but is ranked below him due to his relatively short career.  Eckersley benefits from his years as a starter and comes in with 15 total Fantasy Worthy seasons, a considerable 9 more than Quisenberry.  Even when narrowing down to only loser eligible seasons, Eck comes out on top 10 to 6 which pushes him into the overall lead in FBHOF points.

Quisenberry’s peak average line:  132 IP, 8 W, 1.08 ERA, 2.51 WHIP, 45 K, 39 Saves.  His high number of innings causes his ERA and WHIP have a relatively large impact when compared to today’s closers who frequently fail to reach 80.

3) Trevor Hoffman
Hoffman is the only one of our closers to finish in the Top-3 five times.  His best was an 8.2 point season in 1996:  88 IP, 9 W, 0.92 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, 111 K, 42 Saves.  He’s had nine seasons of at least 40 saves and has never recorded fewer than 20 (or fewer than 30 if you prefer take out the 1994 strike year).

4) Mariano Rivera
Rivera is widely considered the best closer in baseball history so why does he ‘only’ rank 4th in fantasy history?  First, no one would really argue he was better than Eckersley when only looking at their best 5 years, but just as important, Rivera was not a dominant strike out pitcher like Hoffman who averaged an 11.2 K/9 ratio to Rivera’s 8.3; nor did Rivera pitch as many innings as the closers of the early 1980’s, only 57% of Quisenberry’s for instance.

Rivera does have an extremely high number of saves though, his peak average:  47 Saves, 0.98 WHIP, 1.88 ERA, 76 IP, 70 K.

5) Goose Gossage
Had we considered the 1970s Gossage may have ranked as high as #2 on this list.  He lost eight seasons to the decade, 4 of which were great, and two of these elite (212 and 245 ERA+ scores in 1975 and 1977).  Still, Gossage had 5 excellent seasons to start the 1980’s before ultimately hitting a wall in 1986.

His highest scoring season was 1983:  87 IP, 13 W, 1.23 WHIP, 2.27 ERA, 90 K, 22 Saves but his most dominant season was 1981:  47 IP, 3 W, 0.77 WHIP, 0.77 ERA, 48 K, 20 Saves

Where does this leave the Eric Gagne’s and Joe Nathan’s of the world?  And why no Lee Smith or Robb Nen?

Gagne was awesome and no closer has recorded more points over a three year span, but that’s as far as his greatness lasted.  He was the best of the best from 2002 to 2004 but for the rest of his career has injured or merely average.

With just a four season body of work as a closer Nathan is out of the Top-5 for now, though that may change a the end of this year.  Robb Nen was elite for 1 year, very good in another, but not a true standout in his 3rd through 5th best seasons and thus falls just short.  Finally, Lee Smith is the epitome of the “compiler” label when used in a derogatory context.  His ERA and WHIP scores were routinely above 1.20 and 3.00 respectively, but if you want consistent saves (and only consistent saves) he was your man – ten seasons of 30+, though just 3 of 40+.

A few innings before Felix Hernandez was spiked pretty bad by Ricky from My So Called Life, he hit a grand slam off Johan Santana. (Grey, insert profound comment on how you can be on top of the world one moment and the next moment you’re limping off the field. Also lookup “profound” so you know what it means. –Rudy) The spiking looked like he also hurt his ankle, twisting it. I’d be very surprised if Hernandez avoids the DL. When Felix tried to take a warm up pitch after the incident, he nearly collapsed, then was helped off the field. Tough break for Felix Hernandez and his owners. I’d hope for only a 15-DL stint, I’d expect more. Also, prior to complaining, just think of the Mariners fans who now have no reason to watch any game. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brandon Morrow – Will supposedly be available tomorrow. Yesterday Arthur Rhodes got the save. Don’t run out and sign Rhodes. Tomorrow’s Morrow. I love ya…nah, he isn’t worth quoting Annie.

Jeff Clement – (Another Mariners blurp! This is the biggest day in Seattle news since Stephen slapped Irene.) Stayed in really well against Johan. Not an easy task for a lefty. Almost had a double down the 1st base line, but he was robbed by Carlos Delgado.

J.J. Putz – (4 Mariners items! Can you tell it was a slow day in fantasy baseball?) It was announced that Putz would be back sometime in late July. Prediction, he’ll return to pitch poorly then he’ll complain of soreness and the Mariners, hoping he can come back in ’09, will DL him for the remainder of the year.

Jo-Jo Reyes – Bobby Cox gave Jo-Jo a quick hook in the 3rd inning, perhaps suffering from bad flashbacks of Horacio Ramirez or the Alamo. As I mentioned yesterday about fifth starters, sometimes you gotta take some lumps. Also, Prince Fielder nearly went deep, which, obviously, would’ve made this much worse.

Ben Sheets – Threw his third complete game of the season. It’s as if the Brewers think that he’s predestined to be hurt by a certain date so they want to get everything they can get out of him before it happens. “Ben Sheets has only 6 more weeks to pitch.  Let’s make it count!”

Mike Cameron – I just traded him away, so of course he hit a home run yesterday.

Adam Dunn – Call it a hunch, but never underestimate the will of a player going against the team that traded him or, in this case, a GM who crapped all over him on local radio. Dunn’s about to go country crazy!

Eric Byrnes – Prior to the Red Sox game, the Diamondbacks activated Eric Byrnes from the DL.  This entailed letting him out of his body splint and dog cone that prevented Byrnes from reinjuring himself.  After 30 minutes of stop-and-start sprints and pats on the heads from teammates, he was ready to go.

Dan Haren – Meet the best pitcher (at least so far) for the Diamondbacks.  3 base runners in 7 IP now moves his ERA below 3.00 and his WHIP below 1.00.  We’ll see if Webb regains his throne by overcoming the dead arm and having his typically strong 2nd half or if Haren just has his normal subpar 2nd half.

Emmanuel Burriss – With Omar Vizquel hitting .171, there are reports out of the Bay Area that Burriss might take the starting job.  Mr. and Mrs. Poppadopolous are going to be so proud. Burriss is really fast so maybe he could deliver what Eugenio Velez promised this spring. Or not. You make the call!

We realize that not everyone can handle a daily commitment to Razzball. So here’s the condensed brilliance from our site over the past week.

TWIR Notes

Barry Zito – 5 R in 2 IP. SI.com informs us he’s not provided adequate value for his large free agent contract. Thanks, SI.com. I guess it could be worse – they could’ve put him on the cover and jinxed him. That prevented a maple bat from shattering and slicing his guitar strumming hand. Hey, Zito — stubble is for winners!

Kevin Kouzmanoff/Chase Headley - Sore back that could land him on the DL. Headley started at 3rd and hit a HR. Yo, Kouz, you’ve been Pipp’d. (Now Headley just needs to start another 2129 straight games. Just in case, we should call him Biscuit Pants.)

Nomar Garciaparra – Hit a home run and is due to be back next week as the Dodgers SS. Sounds like everything’s going right for Nomar, but he looked glum after the game. When asked why, he said, “I forgot to make Mia lunch. She’s gonna kill me.” Aw, Nomar. That’s a sad emoticon for you.

Chase Utley – He is 0 for his last 20. Just as disturbing, a cat in Philadelphia was left stranded in a tree as a little girl cried for help. We still believe in ya, Chase. It’s just a bad week, Champ, right?

Brad Penny – Hit the DL yesterday. Here’s what Alyssa Milano’s MLB blog update said today, “I told him to stop eating all of those fried foods and late nite meals at Mel’s Diner. When I was preparing for the roll (sic) of Charlotte Wells in Embrace of the Vampire, I ate only soba noodles for 2 months straight! Do u think I wanted to eat so much soba noodles? Well, actually…. Yeah! I did! (Wouldn’t u?) But even if I thought soba noodles tasted gross, I’d still ate (sic) them if I thought they’d help me stay in shape. BTW, I wasn’t the one who gave you herpes! L8 and <3!

Carlos Zambrano – Left the game with an apparent injury to his shoulder. Maybe it was the 3.7 million pitches he’s thrown in the last year or two.

Livan Hernandez – Movie trailer guy, “In a world where Livan Hernandez looks like a good replacement for Johan Santana… He’ll baffle you with his eephus! He’ll take his time with each pitch! He’ll avoid the foul line when walking off the field! George Lopez is Livan Hernandez!”

Bill Bavasi – We have a guy from Seattle in our cash league that always ends up with Mariners and even he admits Bill Bavasi is god awful. Let’s count the ways. Sexson to a monster contract. A rotation that includes Washburn, Batista, and a $10MM/per Carlos Silva. Paying off Adrian Beltre after a career year. Jose Vidro at DH. Extension for a Japanese catcher that his pitchers don’t like throwing to. I’d let Bill Bavasi into any of my cash leagues next year…except for a Razzball one…he’s a natural.

Comment O’ The Week

From commenter Jeff responding to comments on the Yanks picking up Sidney Ponson and building a restaurant chain in the right field section of the new Yankee Stadium

“Hopefully Sidney Ponson just became the highest paid waiter at the Hard Rock Cafe.”

New Glossary Entries

Click here for the full glossary.

; (Semicolon) - Bartolo Colon. A punctuation mark signifiying a pregnant pause – one that should be taken literally and figuratively before starting this former Cy Young Award winner who is clearly half the pitcher he once was (talent-wise, anyway). (full credit to BaronVonVulturewins)

Disgraceful List – What DL stands for when a player goes on it after a conspicuously bad run of hitting/pitching. See V-Mart, Ian Snell.

Dr. Freeze – Nickname for Dr. James Andrews as anyone going to see him is going to be on ice for 12-18 months. Francisco Liriano went to Dr. Freeze in 2006 and he’s still not fully thawed. See Hangin’ With Teddy Ballgame. (assist to BSUjam).

Hangin’ With Teddy Ballgame – When a player gets hurt and is going to be on ice for a long time. “You can tell by the way the pitcher was clutching his elbow that he was going to be hanging’ with Teddy Ballgame for a year or so.” See Dr. Freeze.

Jockular Sphincteritis – Any injury from sack to back that initiates laughing and wincing at the same time. See Kaz Matsui’s anal fissures, Carlos Guillen’s raging hemorrhoids, Felix Pie’s testicular torsion (assist to KarlJ)

Extended Riffs

On Chein Ming being injured all summer Wang

Chien Ming Wang is out at least 6-10 weeks with a foot sprain. (Yes, Wang limp until September.) Drop Wang. Drop him now. Definitely a blow for the Yanks. (Yes, usually Wang takes blow, not dealt one.) If you were counting on him to pitch you to the fantasy pennant, you’ve got bigger issues. (Yes, your Wang problems are “big” issues.) Who are the Yankees turning to? Dan Giese. The new Yankee starter is a 31 year old phenom who has pitched for the Phillies and Giants affiliates the past two years. Did we say phenom? We meant journeyman. But he had been a reliever who was known to have good stuff. The Yanks made him a starter and his AAA numbers this year were fantastic – 59 IP, 1.98 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 51/14 K/BB. Maybe he’s the next Aaron Small or Shawn Chacon? Or at least another Darrell Rasner.

This week’s Fantasy Roundtable is being hosted by the roundtable creators over at Fantasy Baseball Generals.

THE TOPIC: What sleeper has the best chance to get 20 steals for the rest of the season?

I wasn’t able to contribute this week but it’s nice to see that the roundtable is pretty liberal when it comes to the word ‘sleeper’….

Youuuuuuk hit two homers, Teix hit three home runs and, most importantly, Prince Fielder hit two home runs. Why do I say most importantly?  Well, with Youuuuuuuuk, I have him in one of my cash leagues, so I really hope he keeps hitting bombs because I know he has no trade value. With that said, I don’t think he keeps hitting bombs. So two home runs were nice, but they are what they are. As for Teix, he had three HRs, 4 RBIs. 6 of 13 home runs this month, which bodes well for a guy who doesn’t get hot until after the All-Star break. So the three homers are good, but no one was too worried. As for Prince Fielder aka the guy who now eats 16 Boca Burgers a day, he is a guy that you NEED home runs from. So it’s great to see fatty boombalatty finally hitting them. With 8 in June, he can still have 20-something home runs by the All-Star break and no one will remember why they hated him for two months. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Albert Pujols – Looks like he’s returning this Thursday. Yesterday, I traded Pujols (and Mike Cameron) away for Sizemore. Not a slam dunk, but Sizemore is keeping pace in home runs with Pujols and I could use the steals. Cameron was a waiver pickup and would’ve been a drop with Sizemore anyway. Feel free to weigh-in (and mock me) in the comments. (I’m sure you will anyway.)

Shaun Marcum – Marcum heads to the DL and tea with Dr. James Andrews. (If Dr. James Andrews plays fantasy baseball, I can’t imagine anyone trades with him. “Hey, Dr. James here. Was wondering if you wanted to trade me Soria for Marcum.” Other owner, “Is Marcum going to be out longer than expected?” Dr. Jim pauses for a moment then, “No.”)

Randy Wolf – Wolf in Petco 10 Ks, 2 ER. His Home/Road splits actually made me laugh. Home 4-1/2.46/44 IP — Road 1-4/5.84/44.2 IP

Justin Duchscherer – One-time great A’s middle reliever now becoming a great starter.  1.99 ERA now after going 7 2/3 IP of 1 ER ball.  How many Cy Youngs could Chad Bradford won?

Ian Snell – Today Snell is going to have an MRI. Izzy blows five saves in a row — goes to the DL. Victor Martinez goes two months without a home run, hits the DL. Snell has a 5.99 ERA through almost half a season? He’s headed to the DL too. But this is not the Disabled List; this is the Disgraceful List.

Kaz Matsui – Strained his hamstring.  Rumor is that he injured himself once in Japan during pregame calisthenics. When asked how this compared with his injury earlier this year, Kaz said through a translator, “This one is frustrating but the one earlier this year was a real pain in the ass.”

Manny Parra – Parra got the win, but didn’t look that great doing it. He’s walking too many. Oh, well. What do I mean, “Oh, well?” Parra’s a fifth fantasy starter. You can deal with inconsistency from a fifth fantasy starter. Jurrjens gets hit? No biggie. Cueto needs his eye cut so he can see? He gets cut. Carlos Silva gets knocked around– Wait, why is Carlos Silva on your team?!

Mike Gonzalez – Gave up 3 ER. Braves are probably pining for Kerry Ligtenberg. (Meanwhile, the KKK pines for John Rocker.)

Jeff Clement – Hit a HR off Mike Gonzalez. If you’re struggling at catcher, there’s no reason to not take the Clement flier.

Chad Billingsley – My “I (heart) Billingsley” tattoo has people coming up to me saying, “You’ll shoot your eye out,” but Chad and I know who it’s for.

Ian Stewart – Optioned down to Triple-A. Now that all non-Kinsler Ians suck, when is baseball going to enter the age of Seamus?

Clint Barmes – He was the one that replaced Ian Stewart. Worth a grab for a MI spot if you’re hurting (like you just fell down stairs carrying a dead deer.)

Vicente Padilla – With 10 wins now, he is on pace for 20.   Improbable?  We’d say so.  The last Ranger to win 20 games in a season was Rick Helling in 1998.  Since then, only a couple Ranger pitchers have won 20 games combining seasons.  Only 15 more to go Brandon McCarthy!

Johnny Cueto – When a rookie starter gets called up, he goes through a cycle. First, he wows the league, can get everyone out because no one is familiar with his stuff. Then the league catches up with the pitcher and he hits an adjustment period and is knocked around by the league. Finally, the pitcher settles in and becomes what he is. So when Cueto pitches well against the Yanks, the natural thing is to assume he’s settled in and this is what he is. The problem is, the Yanks are in a different league so this outing may have been a blip. The good news, he’s only surrendered more than three runs once in the last eight starts. So is he or isn’t he out of the adjustment period? Um… Yeah. Maybe.

Jered Weaver – Beat Hamels, but didn’t outpitch him.  Seems at this point that his really hot start when he first came up is the anomaly and not the last year and a half.  That’s just the Weaver way.

Justin Verlander – After pitching at Petco, Verlander put on Chris Young’s jersey and tried to sneak into the Padres rotation. “I took Dramamine – I’m not dizzy anymore!” On a side note, Brian Giles called up Jim Edmonds and asked him to smuggle him out.