Fantasy Baseball Advice

Wow, that’s an exciting title, huh? I’m sure it will be a big seller for Google searches. Right after the search bukkake + carved pumpkin faces. Whatever, it’s boring to talk about fourth starters for your fantasy baseball team, right? What do Oliver Perez, Randy Johnson, Aaron Harang and some other schmohawk who didn’t pitch well yesterday have in common? They didn’t pitch well. Jair Jurrjens and Shawn Hill did. I’ve touted Jurrjens and Hill in the past on this site. Search on the left if you don’t believe me (it hurts that you don’t believe me, but I’ll get over it). I’m not even sure how to spell Jair Jurrjens’s name half the time, but he’s on a lot of my teams. Why? They’re both cheaper than dog balls to acquire and will put up decent numbers. Jurrjens gets the Padres next time and Hill gets the Astros and Cassel. If you need to Mapquest your way to your waiver wire, do it. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Shane Victorino – The Flying Hawaiian is now the The Benched Fourth Phillie Outfielder™. Heffin’ hey, take Jenkins out of the lineup! Werth has looked the part of starter thus far, but Jenkins? Can I have “Has-Been Players” for one hundred? He is to Milwaukee what Luis Gonzalez is to Arizona. Who is Geoff Jenkins, Alex? Anyway, Victorino’s got too much to offer to be a bench player, he’ll be back in there. Werth’s a six hole hitter (which Jenkins is too) and Victorino’s a one or a two. It’ll all work itself out. Say Victorino doesn’t start for two weeks then he gets what? Four and a half more months to play. He can still get to 15/40. He only played in 131 games last year and he got 12/37. Patience is key.

Chase Utley – I misspoke when I said Chipper’s going to be the Player of the Month. I hope Phillies fans don’t throw any batteries at me now.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – Looks like he just needed some razzing to get going. Actually, he hit the home run off Jamie Moyer, who I believe is a grandpappy, so we probably shouldn’t start giving ourselves a reacharound just yet.

Jon Herrera – The new Rockies 2nd basemen as Barmes takes over for Tulowitzki. Herrera’s minors numbers look, well, minor. By ‘minor,’ I mean don’t even bother picking him up.

Jonthan Sanchez – I like him, don’t get me wrong, but his K/BB ratio is not good. He’s liable to have some tough starts ahead.

Austin Kearns – Some how he ropes me every year. I will never tout him again. Please remind me if I ever forget this. Besides never performing well something else that bothers the popcorn out of me — he never seems to care. I officially hate Austin Kearns. Somebody should start austinkearnssucks.com. I have my hands full.

Conor Jackson – Another home run; he can get to 20.

Nick Blackburn – Twins always seem to farm usable pitchers, some times great ones. Blackburn seems usable, not great.

Carlos Quentin – Seven home runs and counting. How about you give me your login and I pick up Quentin for you?

Nick Johnson – Okay, this is uncanny. Nick Johnson after a 3-for-3 game — Nick Johnson after an 0-for-4 game.

Mark Grant – Who? The retired pitcher/Padres announcer. Why? Cuz he’s got a stalker.

Felipe Lopez – Belliard hasn’t had an official at-bat since April 20th.

Travis Hafner – Hafnot wasn’t even starting against Washburn. The same Washburn who Hafnot has lifetime’s numbers of .400/3/7 in 20 at-bats.

Franklin Gutierrez – The Big FraGu is 9 for 20 on the homestand.

Russell Martin – Home run, but more importantly getting rest from catching by playing third base. He probably won’t get position eligibility at third in most leagues and it doesn’t really matter. You want him at catcher anyway.

Micah Ownings – He hit a pinch hit home run! But I didn’t see because they like everything big in Texas, including commercials.

Randy Johnson – Just a bumpy beginning in what was an otherwise decent start.

Xavier Nady – I told you in the first three days of the season to just pick him up. Nady finished April with 26 RBIs while batting .337. I’d say unload him for someone more trustworthy, but I can’t imagine anyone’s actually buying into this.

Alexis Rios – As member of Da Razzpound pointed out yesterday, he’s been leading off, which would hurt his RBIs. But it’s not going to stay that way. He’s the Jays best hitter. You don’t bat your best hitter leadoff then Rolen third. I mean, this isn’t the Red Sox or Yanks lineup we’re talking about, the Jay aren’t that deep to be batting Rios leadoff. Again, patience.

Dustin McGowan – He’s not out of the woods yet, but getting into the eighth with only one walk is a great thing, know why? Cause now he has some value for you to trade him.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Another guy that had a good start, that I’m not going to get behind. (Frankly, I have a hard time getting behind any American League pitchers, especially ones in the AL East. But I digress.) You can trade him and still be a Son of Sam Horn, they don’t check your teams for Sawx, do they?

Josh Hamilton – Weird how smack and crack are used for both the sound the bat makes when hitting the ball and for drugs.

Brian Bannister – He got smoked by Josh Hamilton.

Derrick Turnbow – Six runs in two-thirds of inning is the kind of middle reliever hit that really hurts. It was a bad situation with the game out of hand. He shouldn’t been in there, and hopefully you didn’t have him in there.

Wladimir Balentien – Rudy just picked him up in one league. Hey, ya’ll, Rudy knows what he’s doing. At the age of 24 in Triple A, Balentien’s numbers were 77/24/84/.291/15. Look at those numbers again. You’re welcome.

Adam Lind – This is who I added in a deep league. Numbers, please… .378 career OBP in almost 1400 at-bats minor league at-bats. Last year he received almost 300 at-bats from the Jays and hit 11 home runs with a putrid OBP. The fact that the Jays called him up already and have been starting him tells me they are committed. He’s, as they say, a flier. I kinda like Balentien better, but I thought I’d spread the Razzball love.

Casey Kotchman – His average isn’t as much a fluke as you might think. He still won’t hit 30 home runs.

Jeff Clement – Eligibility count: 1 game at catcher.

Dioner Navarro – He got 2 RBIs; Salty didn’t play.

Chad Billingsley – I liked him coming into the season. Still do. A pitcher with his stuff, in his division, in his park, it’s almost not fair.

John Smoltz – He says he will come back as a reliever at least initially. I say, he’s not going back to starting. This also takes the shine off of Acosta and Rafael Soriano. Smoltz will get the bulk of the saves.

Max Scherzer – In his relief appearance, Jobacum left without a stain. Now he’s getting the start over Edgar Gonzalez on Monday for his first major league start. Too bad he’s not on the Rangers, then there could’ve been a battery of Jobacum-Salty. For next Monday’s start, I guess we’ll have to settle for Jobacum discharging the Phillies.

In an article so spicy it must’ve been translated from ESPN Deportes, Edgar Renteria and Orlando Cabrera are in a ‘bitter feud’. I’d make more fun of it but they are both Colombian and, well, those hombres know how to feud.

I hope they didn’t take any offense to me calling them middling infielders before the season (in fairness, Renteria has been good so far. Orlando, not so hot).

We can’t have the two best players from Colombia since Lou Gehrig fighting. They should settle this on the field. Here’s what I propose. One starts at third base. One starts at first base. They replace the chalk lines with lines of cocaine. First one to snort their way to home plate wins.

This is the worst shortstop feud since David Eckstein and Ben Zobrist quarreled over whose name sounded more faux-Jewy…..

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.

This week, the best third basemen are identified and elected.

Despite having well over 1,000 of his games ineligible since they came prior to the ‘fantasy era’, Mike Schmidt is inducted as the games premier third basemen amassing a final FBHOF score of 70.5 and a Peak Score of 67.7, both tops at his position.

The strike shortened 1981 season was his trademark campaign, one in which he scored 18.8 FBHOF points, the second best total for any batter of all time.  In just 102 games Schmidt batted .316, 78 R, 31 HR, 91 RBI en route to the number one overall ranking, far ahead of the second place finisher, Andre Dawson.  In his previous season the lifetime Philly finished 1st at his position (2nd overall), a feat he duplicated again in 1984.

He recorded two other great seasons in 1986 (35 HR, 108 R) and 1983 (36 HR, 106 RBI), which gives him a 5-year peak ranking of 1.4 at his position.  This simply means that on average, he finished between the best and second best at his position when analyzing his 5 best seasons.  He averaged .280, 108 R, 38 HR, 103 RBI, 10 SB during the span.

In the eight seasons between 1980 and 1987, Schmidt reached the 30-HR milestone each year, topping out at 48 in 1981.  He also drove in at least 85 runners each year, and scored the same in seven of those eight seasons.  Early in the decade Schmidt also stole double digit bases which increased his value considerably.  In these prime years he ranked 1st overall in home runs (295, second best was Dale Murphy at 264) and RBI (839), and 5th in Runs Scored.  All in all, he was the best fantasy batter of the period, and not just the best fantasy third basemen.

As good as Schmidt was, our next inductee Paul Molitor was more valuable over the long-haul, out distancing Schmidt by almost 50% in career score, 140.6 to 94.8.  Of course, a lot of this has to do with Schmidt’s 1970’s seasons not counting, but plenty had to do with Molitor himself.  He too lost seasons to the 70s’ (one very good, one not) but more importantly, Molitor finished 1st at his position 5 times, an accomplishment only bettered by Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez.

Molitor also has 4 additional seasons where he was ranked in the top 5, giving him nine total, one more than Schmidt has to his credit.  So, why isn’t Molitor rated higher?  Peak value.  Molitor best season was 1982, take a look:  .302 AVG, 136 R, 19 HR, 71 RBI, 41 SB.  This was good enough for 13.1 FBHOF points, which is well off the pace of Schmidt’s best season.  The same for their second best seasons, Schmidt outpaces him by a healthy margin, 14.5 to 13.0.  Lining them up best to worst:

    Molitor    Schmidt

1st   13.1      18.8

2nd   13.0      14.5

3rd   12.6      11.7

4th   11.8      11.6

5th   11.8      11.1

It’s clear that Schmidt was more valuable during this 5 year period, significantly outdistancing Molitor twice.

Positional eligibility impacts the scoring as well.  Three of Molitor’s top five scores happen to be seasons where Molitor was playing First Base (from 1992 -1993).  In fact, aside from 3B/1B, Molitor also had two seasons where he was eligible at second base and five where he was eligible only as a DH.  In all though, he had more seasons at third than any other and therefore is considered a third basemen for induction purposes.

At his best, Molitor delivered his fantasy owners a brilliant combination of speed, power, and high averages.  Remembering the relatively low run scoring environment he was active in, his average peak year batting line was:  .325, 119 R, 17 HR, 84 RBI, 32 SB.

Our last inductee for the hot corner helps speak to how baseball has changed through the years.   In 1999 Chipper Jones had the following line:  .319 AVG, 116 R, 45 HR, 110 RBI, 25 SB.  Despite these monstrous numbers he wasn’t the most valuable fantasy batter during year, as that distinction went to Larry Walker.  Nor was he the 2nd or 3rd most valuable thanks to superb seasons from Jeff Bagwell and Manny Ramirez.  Jones had to ‘settle’ for 4th because the era in which he played in favored hitters to a extensive degree, so much so that in 1999 the NL average OPS was .771, which at the time was the 3rd highest on record since 1900.

This has been the story of Jones career.  In ’98 he went .313, 123 R, 34 HR, 107 RBI, 16 SB but was only ranked 8th overall.  In 2000 he had virtually the same season, but dropped to 10th.  Jones has never been ranked better than 4th overall in any one season, a fact that reduces his value when comparing him to Schmidt and Molitor.  In his favor however, is that among his peers he had no equal in his prime years of 1996-2001.  During this six-year stretch Jones is ranked, on average, more than four and a half times better as the next best third basemen.  There were 33 players eligible at third base in this time frame, below are the average rankings for the top 5:

1.5 – Chipper Jones
7.0 – Jeff Cirillo (!)
8.6 – Dean Palmer
10.5 – Todd Zeile
13.8 – Scott Rolen

No player bested him twice in the years he wasn’t ranked number at the position.  He truly was in a class all by himself.  His 61.2 FBHOF point total and 61.2 Peak Score is 3rd best of his peers, while his Career Score is 2nd best.

A few players missed the cut:
- George Brett – The Kansas City Hall of Famer is one great season away from election.  His top 5 seasons listed by rank among third basemen are 1, 2, 2, 4, 5 with the last two also being outside of the top 20-overall.  Can we elect a player who didn’t have 5 top 20 seasons when his FBHOF peers all have?  It’s a shame, but he doesn’t quite make the cut.  (Brett also lost 6 seasons to the 70’s and would have easily been elected had these years been considered).  One possible way to induct him is to give the guy a 3 point bonus for his anger management issues.

- Wade Boggs – Another Hall of Famer misses the cut as well, which in all likelihood will be a common theme at FBHOF.  Boggs isn’t all that close to warranting a vote in, and while I don’t want to call any immortal one dimensional, that’s just what Boggs was for most of his career.  He reached the 80 RBI mark just once, had double digit home runs just twice, and never stole more than 3 bases in a season.  Even his hallmark 1987 campaign (.363, 108/24/89) came in a huge offensive season, making it just 20th best among batters.

- Pedro Guerrero – Surprisingly, to me anyway, Guerrero is in the same exact boat as Brett, just 1 season away from serious consideration.

- Matt Williams – Has more 10 point seasons than either Brett or Guerrero, but never had a truly elite season.

- Scott Rolen/Bobby Bonilla/Vinny Castilla – Each had two or three great years; five are required unless one of those years happens to be an all time great.

Alex Rodriguez was placed on the DL today with a strained right quadriceps. I think that’s in your leg. (Not your leg obviously, but Arod’s… I mean, we all have quadriceps, but Arod’s is the one that is injured. Anyway…) You can’t do anything, but place him on your disabled list. Some players I’d try and replace Arod with (obviously it depends on your league and your needs): Troy Glaus, Scott Rolen, Jeff Keppinger, Brandon Inge, Eric Hinske or Ryan Freel — in that order. If you’re in a deep league, some players I’d consider that have a lot more risk, but much more upside:

Ian Stewart – He might be called up because the Rockies are dealing with Tulowitzki’s injury. Ian Stewart could easily slide into the lineup and be an immediate Rookie of the Year candidate. He’s that good. Someone else that is that good?

Andy LaRoche – I have my doubts about Torre playing him over Nomar when he’s healthy. But worrying about whether someone will start over Nomar if Nomar’s healthy is like worrying if Kim Kardashian will still love you after you sleep with her. How about you cross that vagina bridge when you come to it?

In other news:

Smoltz might go to the bullpen. I’m only reporting this because I told you to sell him less than twelve hours ago. If he moves to the bullpen, I think he can succeed in the closer role again. Member how Myers became a closer last year and it worked okay? Smoltz can actually be very valuable in the bullpen.

Max Scherzer -There was a lot to cover last night and I figured I had just devoted a post to him so there wasn’t more needed, but I underestimated my constituents in the comments section. In his 7 K relief performance, he looked like Linecum and Joba’s love child. He will now be known as Jobacum. You’re welcome.

What would Peter Frampton say about this? Wawaaaaa…Weee…Wah.

Dr. Julie Andrews sure has been busy lately. First sending Posada to the DL now Smoltz. Officially Smoltz has a severely old arm that has been severely overused which leaves him severely doubtful for a while. Actually, that wasn’t official, but let’s just say the injury news reaffirms a sore arm that first appeared in March. So what does that mean? It means you’re S.O.L — shit out of luck. I wouldn’t be surprised if Smoltz isn’t around for a few months and even when he returns, it may not be for long. He may just return, pitch a few times then reinjure himself. So what do you do? Well, you put him on your DL or you trade him for fifty cents on the dollar. I suggest you trade him. Old pitchers with a ton of innings on their arm who complain of arm soreness in spring training, then go on the DL with the same arm soreness, aren’t good ones to hold onto. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Johnny Cueto – Um, yeah… Well, he did retire César Izturis once. Okay, he was rocked. By the Cardinals. Badly. But he’s not the first rookie pitcher to get hit hard. Last year, Lincecum and Gallardo both had their hiccups (or vomitings, depending on your POV). He’s a rookie pitcher and these things have to be weathered or get out of the rookie pitcher game. Will Cueto continue to get rocked? Let’s hope not, but he’s a rookie. He did tweak something in his leg last time out, so maybe that was the issue. Let’s hope so. He still has a tremendous K/BB ratio. You can’t drop him to waivers yet as much as you might want to.

Derrek Lee – I said in January, “In the 2nd half last year, he finally regained his power that was so badly missing after his wrist injury. Post-All-Star break in ’07, he hit 16 of his 22 homers. Watch this trend continue into ‘08.” And that’s me quoting me! Can he hit 45 home runs? Doubtful, but 35 seems more than doable.

Joe Borowski – He’s playing toss, which is to say he’s throwing as hard as he can. Oofa! Yeah, he’s still a few weeks away from pressing Betancourt and even then, I’m skeptical he can be an effective closer. Although…

Rafael Betancourt – Was a shook one. Beltre (who had three walks in a game for the first time since 2004!) hit a bomb. Betancourt’s still fine. For now. Stay posted.

Ben Sheets – Six times in his career he’s walked five or more batters. Tonight he walked seven. I’m guessing he’s hiding an injury. I know, big surprise.

Alfonso Soriano – He’s coming back from the DL on Thursday and will immediately go into the leadoff spot. I’d field offers to see what I could get because, as always, before the injured player returns he has the most value. I wouldn’t trade him for a chicken fetus and toast, but, ya know, send out feelers.

Jonathan Broxton – Looks to be headed to the DL. This actually hurts me more than Smoltz because I have Broxton on a lot of teams. It was described as an injury simliar to Rich Harden’s. *sticking my head in the oven*

Troy Tulowitzki – Ugh. He left the game with an apparent leg injury. Hopefully it’s nothing to serious because he hasn’t even started to hit yet. The last thing his owners (me on a lot of teams) need is for him to be sidelined and never get on track. Baker was supposed to start last night. *turning on the oven*

Chad Cordero – Going back to the DL. Maybe Nomar and Blalock can work him into their carpool schedule. Kids gotta go to school!

Troy Glaus – I know it’s not a sexy pick, but, as I keep saying, he can help you.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – This guy is laying a major turd baby in every single at-bat. Honestly, I thought last year’s 1st half slump was simply a rookie adjusting and his 2nd half numbers were a sign that he would come out fast this year. Well, this article I wrote way back in December was a joke, but seems eerily prescient (Word of the Day, bitches!).

Joel Pinero, Carlos Silva and Josh Fogg – Combined for like 80 innings of 2 run baseball yesterday with like a .00001 WHIP. Why won’t my pitching suck?!

Ryan Zimmerman – Hit his first home run since April 2nd. I’m still not a fan, but this might lead to a hot streak. Those Zimmerfans out there better hope so.

Jose Guillen – If picking up Guillen off waivers causes you to have an erection for longer than four hours, you need to see a doctor, but I told you last week he was a good buy low. Is he exciting? No, but he’ll get some home runs.

Chipper Jones – Player of the month. I’d still trade him tomorrow for the right offer. In fact, I suggest you start trying to trade him. He won’t stay healthy for 150 games like he wants to. His value will never be higher than it will be today.

Mike Cameron – Returned and was placed right into the two hole. He went 3-for-5 with two runs and two RBIs. I felt like Tejada was a great pick this year because he wanted to prove to people that he was clean and under 35. By that twisted logic, Cameron could also be in for a good year. If you won’t pick him up because he cheated, grab JR Towles — he went to Jesus Camp.