Here’s Bill James on 60 Minutes last night.
BTW, Saw 21, the Kevin Spacey/kid who looks like Jeremy London from Party of Five movie, this weekend. Best gambling movie I’ve seen since Rounders. The ending was predictable, but it still had a lot of great scenes. Also, proves the point that Kevin Spacey is at his best when he plays an asexual.
Last week, I told you about some guys you should be adding to your roster. Now said player is sitting there on waivers and you have , say, the 3rd claim. Or say the 7th or the 1st, doesn’t really matter for this exercise. When do you know the right time to grab a player who’s been dropped by another team? Well, here’s how you know when to use your waiver claim:
When it’s someone you need for your roster.
Stop pussyfooting around and grab the player you want/need. Remember the idiot Cowboy Jon from, like, The Real World 2 who was saving his virginity? That’s who you are if you think saving your waiver claim is a wise move. I don’t care if Jesus, Gandhi or Mitt Rommey told you to save your waiver claim. They’re wrong (in this instance only, of course). Do you want to be Cowboy Jon sitting there in August praying that Evan Longoria is finally called up so you can use your claim? Or how about you’re Cowboy Jon and you finally get to use your waiver claim on Jay Bruce in August and by that time you’re out of the race for first? What farkin’ good is Jay Bruce doing you then? Use your waiver claims fast and furious. While your leaguemates are waiting for someone they deem worthy of a pickup, you’ll be grabbing all kinds of other players that are immediately useful.
“I just dropped Abreu for Kory Casto!” Well, I hope that was Tony Abreu, not Bobby, because I’m not saying you drop useful players for waiver wire fodder. Act like you know, MC Lyte! This ain’t rocket science. Use common sense, and your waiver claim. You’re welcome.
Chad Cordero reported stiffness and Jon Rauch came out to save Sunday’s true season opener. If Cordero’s injured, then it’s Rauch who will get the saves, so he’s a must add right now as we wait to see what’s going on with Cordero. Over in Dodgers country, Torre announced that Andre Ethier will be starting in place of Juan Pierre. Not only the right baseball move, but the more exciting fantasy move since Ethier has a higher ceiling for what’s possible, where Juan Pierre we already know what’s possible. I still see Juan Pierre getting 400 at-bats this season and at least 35 steals. I told you not to draft Juan Pierre. You have to hold onto Pierre at this point, because we really don’t know how Ethier’s going to react to the chance to start. Also, on Sunday, Tim Hudson picked up where he left off last year. Great WHIP, just eh Ks, but I’d be more than happy to have him on a team. In fact, I do.
Hello, Joe all the way from Ireland here, yes believe it or not there are fantasy baseball addicts in this part of the world too, well there’s one anyway!
I just came across your site the other day and find it to be excellent. So i thought i’d share my 14-team mixed league team with you and get your thoughts, on possible moves i should make and so on.
C: Chris Snyder
1B: Adrian Gonzalez, 6th round
2B: Brian Roberts, 3rd round (thinking of trading him)
3B: Miguel Cabrera, 1st
SS: Peralta, 14th
OF: Carlos Lee, 2nd
OF: Hart, 5th
OF: Swisher, 7th
Util: Kemp, 8th
Bnch: Kent, 17th
Bnch: Votto, 20th
Bnch: Carlos Gomez, FA
Bnch: Eugenio Velez, FA
DL: Wily Mo Pena, FA
SP: CC Sabathia, 4th
SP: Rich Hill, 9th
SP: Francisco Liriano, 10th
SP: Chien-Ming Wang, 12th
SP: Manny Parra, FA
SP: Hiroki Kuroda, 21st round
CL: Matt Capps, 11th
CL: BJ Ryan (took a risk and dealt Tim Hudson for him)
RP: Heath Bell, 16th
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Hey Joe -
Thanks for writing in. Nice to know fantasy baseball has found its way across the pond. It’s got to be better than fantasy cricket, right?
It’s always tough to judge a roster without seeing the rest of the field. Assuming a 5×5 league, I’d say you’ve got a slightly above average team with potential for very good. I like your offense – particularly for HR/RBI. You get solid SBs out of your team without sacrificing power. While I don’t like Roberts as a 3rd round pick, I think you have to hold onto him given Hart/Kemp can’t carry your team and you don’t have enough offensive slots to carry the crappy peripheral stats of Gomez and Velez.
I’m more concerned on your pitching. Sabathia and Hill should provide solid 4 category stats. Hudson would’ve been an ok 3rd starter as Wang and Kuroda project very low on Ks (maybe 200K b/w the two) so it’s tough carrying both. Liriano/Parra are both high reward/high risk. You’re obviously weak in saves but, in a 14 team league, 2 closers should get you average points. I’d hope for the best with BJ and jump on any potential closer that’s on the FA/waiver wire. Really like Heath Bell to help provide ERA/WHIP/K help and a Save darkhorse.
I’d consider trading for another starter. Someone who projects as safer than Liriano/Parra and better on Ks than Wang or Kuroda. This tier would include AJ Burnett, Adam Wainwright, Dustin McGowan, Pedro Martinez, Ian Snell, John Maine, James Shields, Matt Cain, Oliver Perez, and Derek Lowe. Trouble is, there’s not much you can offer. Perhaps someone who is poor in speed will bite on Wang/Kuroda and Gomez/Velez? Maybe someone low on Ks will bite on the upside of Liriano? Assuming no, I’d look to drop 1-2 hitters (definitely Kent, Gomez or Velez) on your bench for middle relievers who you can rotate in to bulk up on Ks. Guys like Betancourt, Accardo, Rauch, Moylan, Broxton, Fuentes, Marmol, Benoit, Turnbow, Tony Pena and Heilman. No point betting on another risky starter.
Hope this helps and that Irish luck carries over to fantasy baseball…
Rudy
(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Minnesota Twins preview.)
Starting Pitching
For the first time in a half decade, the Twins will not have ace Johan Santana to count on. He will be missed, but the Twins and their fans have got to move on. With the losses of Carlos Silva and Matt Garza, it is fair to say that there are question marks all over the Twins starting staff. Fortunately, if nothing else, the Twins have a lot of young pitchers with abundant talent and little experience.
The Twins decided to start the season with ace-to-be Francisco Liriano making a few starts in the minor leagues while he continues to rehab from Tommy John surgery. His long-term value to the Twins makes this a no brainer, but expect him up soon. The Twins decided to sign the very hittable Livan Hernandez to eat up innings to save the bullpen some since the rest of the rotation is young. Scott Baker and Boof Bonser are the two pitchers with the most experience. Each has made just 48 career starts, but they will be counted on heavily. Kevin Slowey has an historical 2007 at AAA Rochester, and in September, he replaced Bonser in the rotation. His control and moxie make him a future star, much in the mold of Greg Maddux. OK, how about Brad Radke? The fifth starter job was won by Nick Blackburn this spring. He will be given a few starts until Liriano is ready, but he has the stuff to stick around if he pitches well. If anything happens, it is important to note that the Twins have plenty of young pitchers who are, or soon will be, ready to contribute at the big league level. Philip Humber, Glen Perkins, Brian Duensing, Anthony Swarzak lead that list.
The Bullpen
The Twins have typically outperformed their Pythagorean win projection, and we wonder why? Well, it is probably because of the strength of their bullpen. They may not have had the offense to have many blowout wins, but when the team is in a close game, the dominance of the Twins bullpen always gives them a chance.
The Twins decided to sign Joe Nathan and keep him around for the next four years. He has been as good as any closer in baseball since the Twins promoted him to the position to start the 2004 season. Pat Neshek and Matt Guerrier were terrific in their set up role last year. This year, the Twins hope for a healthy Jesse Crain, who missed much of the 2007 season after shoulder surgery, as he was excellent to start his career. Juan Rincon looks to bounce back, and Dennys Reyes would love to prove that 2006 was no fluke.
The Twins bullpen will again be a very important part of their success in 2008
Position Players
Joe Mauer and Mike Redmond combine to be a very productive catching duo. Mauer is fully healthy and had a strong spring. If he can stay in the lineup, he is as good as it gets. Justin Morneau was the AL MVP in 2006 and had a strong first half in 2007. What he needs to do is put together a full season. His recently signed six year, $80 million deal is hopefully motivation to do just that. Michael Cuddyer signed a three year deal worth at least $25 million on the same day, and he will again patrol right field where he led the league in assists last year. The team acquired Delmon Young in an offseason trade and he will be set in left field this season. Jason Kubel put together a great second half in 2007 and should build on that as the team’s primary DH. (Craig Monroe will likely see some time as the DH and occasional OF as well) Those are the Twins two through six hitters, and should remain so over the next three or four years. Those five hitters should be very productive.
Adam Everett takes over shortstop duties after Jason Bartlett was traded in the Garza/Young deal. This is a big step down for the Twins offensively, but probably a small step forward defensively as Everett is as good as it gets. Carlos Gomez and Denard Span battled all spring for the starting CF job, and in the end, the Twins went with the very talented Carlos Gomez. He will be the Twins leadoff man as well, providing incredible speed to the top of the order, allowing those two through six hitters plenty of RBI opportunities. Mike Lamb, Everett’s teammate with the Astros the last several seasons, will take over at 3B for the Twins. Last year, Nick Punto put up historically horrible numbers for a player at the hot corner. Lamb’s defense may not be great, but the guy can take good at bats and hit gaps, so he will help the lineup as well. Finally, Brendan Harris, also acquired in the Twins/Rays deal will start the season as the Twins starting 2B. He put up very strong numbers last year as the Rays starting SS, and will move to the other side of the diamond for this season. Expect Punto to get some playing time here as well as Twins rookie Matt Tolbert.
Fantasy Must Haves
Many people are down on this year’s Twins team, but there is a lot of talent. My assumption is that fantasy baseball participants know this. Here are some guys to consider drafting:
Joe Mauer – There are only four, maybe five, catchers that you really want on your team. Joe Mauer is one of them. Even in a “down” season for Mauer, he provides good all around numbers. If healthy, he should reclaim the top spot among catchers.
Justin Morneau – Normally 1B has been one of the strongest positions in a fantasy draft, but this year, that isn’t as much the case. However, Morneau is still one of the guys that you will be happy to have on your team.
Joe Nathan – Over his four seasons as the Twins closer, he has averaged just over 40 saves per season. He has also had an ERA of 1.94 combined over that time.
Delmon Young – His lack of walks makes him a mid-round pick in rotisserie leagues where on-base percentage matters, but I think he could be a monster in points leagues. At just 22 years old, his power and average should continue to rise.
Francisco Liriano – With risk, there can be reward. Sure, in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, there is risk in drafting Liriano. However, let’s not forget that during his 2006 run (12-3, 2.16 ERA, 144 Ks in 121 innings), he was better than Johan Santana. That is how special he could be again.
Sleepers
Jason Kubel – his second half gives Twins fans hope that he has returned to full health and can be the hitter we projected him to be when he first came up to the Twins in 2004.
Michael Cuddyer – Don’t forget that in 2006, he had over 100 runs and 100 RBI. He is forgotten in the lineup that includes so many mashers.
Pat Neshek – Arguably the top set up man in the game, Neshek does well in strikeouts, WHIP and ERA. If anything happened to Joe Nathan, Neshek would be the guy to step in.
Summary
The American League Central is very tough. The Tigers improved themselves and we forget that Cleveland is back with much of the same team that was one win from the World Series. The White Sox and even the Royals will both be very competitive. But don’t sleep on this Twins team. As you can see, there is a lot of talent. Yes, a lot of things have to happen right for this team, but this is the beauty of baseball and its 162 game season. You just never know.
Seth
Seth Stohs runs www.SethSpeaks.net
