No Doubt

Name Team Opponent 1 Opponent 2
Trevor Bauer CLE @MIA SEA
Blake Snell TB @KC @BAL
Justin Verlander HOU @MIN @LAA
Luis Castillo CIN @NYM SF
German Marquez COL @MIL ARZ
Patrick Corbin WSH STL @PHI

Rich Hill getting injured; Khris Davis hitting .247; topping my 3 wood after waiting for a long time on a par 5 approach shot; these guys on the list in your starting lineup. Well Alex, what are things that you have no doubt about? Wager: Suck It Trebek!

Not to be confused with Luis Mendoza (the speedster duck), you can bet that nobody that owns Castillo will be yelling for him to stop any time soon. I don’t expect it to happen this week with a visit to the Mets and home for what is more a gentle Giant(s) lineup than a Thanos, world killer Giant(s) lineup. No, there’s not a spoiler there. I haven’t seen it yet anyway.

If you’re curious about how good Luis Castillo has been, he’s only given up 2 barrels on the season (2nd best among pitchers, min. 50 batted ball events), 31% hard hit rate is 13th best, 85.1 mph avg. exit velocity is 15th best, and the best swinging strike rate of his career so far on this young season at 14% along with his lowest contact percentage allowed as well.

 

Throw Em If You Got Em

Name Team Opponent 1 Opponent 2
Chris Paddack SD @ATL LAD
Mike Soroka ATL SD @MIA
Zack Wheeler NYM CIN @MIL
Frankie Montas OAK @BOS @PIT
Eduardo Rodriguez BOS OAK @CWS
Rick Porcello BOS OAK @CWS

Are you a sucker for a good fastball/change up pitcher? Me too! That’s exactly what Chris Paddack has shown to start this season along with the command of those 2 pitches that vaulted him up prospect lists last season and earned him a starting rotation spot this year. While he likely will face some trouble at some point and he’s likely to be on an innings restriction this season, just enjoy the fantasy goodness and watch the kid pitch.

There has been some talk about his early season success potentially being a bit lucky. Perhaps, he has been lucky with a .138 BABIP, but BABIP is going to be low on almost every top performing pitcher after a handful of starts. He’s limiting hard contact with the 9th best avg. exit velocity (min. 50 B.B.E.), 5th lowest hard hit rate allowed, and has only allowed 3 barrels on the season. I don’t love his starts at Atlanta and then facing the Dodgers, but there’s no chance he’s riding the pine this week.

Both ERod and Porcello have some ugly numbers on the season, but they’ve both gotten it together over their last 3 starts. Erod more so than Porcello with a 3 ERA and 21 strikeouts over 18 IP with only 4 walks (granted 3 came in one game). I debated moving Porcello down a tier due to a lack of strikeout upside, and his 3 game stretch hasn’t been quite as strong. However, he stays in this tier though as the almighty Streamonator likes the match up for both Boston pitchers. Who am I to argue with the boss’s tools?

 

Brown Paper Bag

Name Team Opponent 1 Opponent 2
Brad Keller KC TB @DET
Jhoulys Chacin MIL COL NYM
Julio Teheran ATL SD @MIA
Jakob Junis KC TB @DET
Nick Margevicius SD @ATL LAD

Nick Margevicius (still not sure how you pronounce his name) is off to a pretty solid start, especially considering he has never thrown above A ball prior to making the rotation this season. The soft tossing lefty is currently sporting a 3.60 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and an acceptable 22.8% K rate. He’s done a decent job of limiting hard contact with the 42nd best avg. exit velocity (87.1 mph) and 35th best hard hit rate at 33.3%.  I will be watching how he handles this 2 start week as the match ups don’t do him any favors. The Dodgers are the 2nd best offense in the league , and the Braves are top 10 in runs scored, so, Margevicius will have to continue his weak contact creating ways to make it through this week.

Free Streamonator Pick: Go figure, the Streamonator likes the guy who goes to Miami. Julio Teheran.

 

Eyes Wide Shut

Name Team Opponent 1 Opponent 2
Jeff Samardzija SF LAD @CIN
Michael Pineda MIN HOU @NYY
Tanner Roark CIN @NYM SF
Adam Wainwright STL @WSH @CHC
Jake Odorizzi MIN HOU @NYY

There’s likely not much difference between this category and the next one this week. In general, this group of pitchers is likely more talented, or was at some point, but most have at least one bad match up this week. Tanner Roark may be the lone pitcher in this grouping that doesn’t have a tough start this week, but it’s Tanner Roark and if he can’t get the grounders he needs, it can be a long day, and guess what? He’s not getting grounders this season. 31.1% ground ball rate is the worst he’s had at any level and he’s below league average in hard hit rate and avg. exit velocity allowed.

 

I Immediately Regret This Decision

Name Team Opponent 1 Opponent 2
David Hess BAL @CWS TB
Ivan Nova CHW BAL BOS
Anibal Sanchez WSH STL @PHI
Clay Buchholz TOR @LAA @TEX
Jason Vargas NYM CIN @MIL

Great starters in a reverse league, but just throw a single start pitcher or reliever instead of these guys. Double the starts likely just means double the pain to your place in the standings. Forced to choose any of these options, David Hess or Ivan Nova get the nod. Hess hasn’t gotten off to a bad to start this year, but a tough one at Tampa has inflated his ratios. However, it doesn’t bode well for a fly ball pitcher to have both starts in home run friendly parks. Nova has been a complete roller coaster from start to start, but had a couple solid outings at the Yankees and at Cleveland. It’s Ivan Nova. You know what you’re getting generally over the course of the season with low Ks and likely a 4+ ERA with a 1.25+ WHIP. Take the chance at your own risk.

 

Unannounced/Potential 2 Start Pitchers

The Rockies and Cardinals have yet to announce their Monday starter.

The White Sox, Brewers, and Rays have yet to announce their Tuesday starters that could get the ball twice.

Some other potential 2 start pitchers if their teams skip a pitcher in the rotation include: CC Sabathia, Spencer Turnbull, Felix Hernandez, Adrian Sampson, and Sandy Alcantara.

 

  1. Wallpaper Paterson says:
    (link)

    Rest of season- Pollock or Tapia?

    Stat cats are R, HR, RBI, SB, OBP

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
      (link)

      Pollock has the injury concern and Tapia the playing time, but give me Pollock for now. Better lineup and hitting in the top 5 of the order as well. If something happens to Tapia’s playing time or place in the lineup, then I may re-think it.

  2. OldMilwaukeePounders says:
    (link)

    Hey B Don.

    Who do you like for my last rotation arm:

    Rodon, Strahm, Eickhoff

    Roto, 10 team

    Thanks!

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
      (link)

      Give me Rodon for this week and moving forward. Of the group, Eickhoff is the one I’d feel most comfortable moving on from if you need a spot. I know he’s performed well so far, but it’s a ticking time bomb waiting to blow up. He is using a cutter instead of his slider, but I expect teams will pick that up soon.

  3. Harley Earl says:
    (link)

    Hey guy,

    Cardinals will start Wacha on Monday. He should get another start on Saturday at Chicago (Cubs). Figures you might want that.

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
      (link)

      Thanks Harley Earl. @Nats and @Cubs isn’t ideal. He’s performed in 3 of his 4 starts, but got lit up by the Dodgers. It’s the Dodgers so maybe he gets a slight pass for that one, but I think he probably slots in as a Brown Paper Bagger for this week. Hope he doesn’t have a repeat of the Dodgers outing where he just left everything over the middle, or see the walks he had against the Padres or Brewers. Does seem to have gotten the walks under control in the last 2.

      • Harley Earl says:
        (link)

        Yeah, can’t say I like the matchups this week. Nats doesn’t seem like a bad matchup but Cubs at Wrigley is a No Way Jose. You agree with starting him Monday and letting him ride the pine against the Cubs?

        • B_Don

          B_Don says:
          (link)

          I don’t like either, but yeah, I’d feel better running him out for the Nats start over the Cubs, but probably not that dissimilar in my values for the week.

          Cubs offense has been slightly better and while Wrigley plays better over the course of the season, early on, it’s all on the wind. With it being pretty gross in Chicago this week, it likely plays more toward pitcher friendly.

          • Harley Earl says:
            (link)

            Yeah, I think I’m going to just sit his butt this week! No point in taking a chance early on with the Nats.

            Thanks!

            • B_Don

              B_Don says:
              (link)

              15 team or more in a weekly lineup league is probably where I’m running him out there. Anything shallower, or if it’s a daily lineup league, I will find better options.

  4. dingo37 says:
    (link)

    Will Maeda go twice? @SF, @SD?

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
      (link)

      It does look like Maeda is going today, so, he should get 2 starts barring the Dodgers skipping him or doing something funny with the rotation. He’d fit right in the middle of the Throw Em If You Got Em tier for me.

      • Re-Pete says:
        (link)

        Would you roll with Maeda’s 2 starts over, say, one from Nola?

        • B_Don

          B_Don says:
          (link)

          Nola’s been a little shaky to start the season, but I think I’d go with him facing the Tigers, but it’s a tough call. I’d hope you have another person you could sit this week in your rotation other than Nola to get Maeda in there.

          • Re-Pete says:
            (link)

            My other SPs are Marquez, Corbin, Berrios, Carrasco, Caleb Smith, and Rodon. I have to start 5 of them.

            • B_Don

              B_Don says:
              (link)

              Yeah, okay, fair enough. I’d throw Nola with that staff and just count on everyone dominating.

              • Re-Pete says:
                (link)

                Thanks. One of these weeks I’m going to get all of them to perform well at the same time. So far at least one of those guys has tanked each week which has limited my scoring potential (it’s a H2H points league).

                • B_Don

                  B_Don says:
                  (link)

                  Pitching has been brutal early, but I expect that it will even out and the top performers will regain their place. Good luck!

  5. Bird says:
    (link)

    Looks like John Means is lined up for 2 starts unless I’m missing something, been pitching well so far and gets the white sox tonight, presumably the rays this wknd

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
      (link)

      Yeah, looks like that is correct. He has been pitching well so far and seems to have gotten a small velo bump on the FB and is leaning on the FB/change up combo more early in the season. I’m interested enough he probably fits in the Brown Paper Bag tier for me as we have to see if these early season adjustments can hold up.

Comments are closed.