No Doubt

Player Team Opp1 Opp2
Max Scherzer WSH @MIA @DET
Gerrit Cole HOU PIT SEA

Gerrit Cole’s season has been a bit of a roller coaster, but the numbers have come around as the pro-gression (positive regression) has kicked in after a tough May. Despite the bad surface numbers in May, he had a 41.2% K rate, only a 2.6% BB rate, and the .362 BABIP screamed buy low.

Cole has bounced back in June despite the underlying numbers being worse than May, but has helped your fantasy team to the tune of a 2.16 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in his 4 starts. Cole is a bona fide ace and there is no reason to sit him down this week.

Max Scherzer looked like somebody broke his nose or something before his last start and still managed 7 innings with no earned runs and 10 strikeouts. While you may be terrified of at Miami and at Detroit, I think you should maybe…probably….definitely start him.

 

Pretty…Pretty Good

Player Team Opp1 Opp2
Zack Greinke ARI LAD @SF
Clayton Kershaw LAD @ARI @COL
Lucas Giolito CHW @BOS MIN
Robbie Ray ARI LAD @SF

There’s enough concern over recent performance and/or match-ups this week for this group to knock them down from the No Doubt grouping. Greinke struggled to close out his last outing and has to face the top offense in the league this week before heading to a nice match-up in San Francisco.

Clayton Kershaw likely will never be his old self again, but he’s still somebody you want to throw out there every week. A start at Coors is enough reason to drop him down below the No Doubters as his career numbers are less than sparkling in the mountains with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP.

After getting hit around by the Cubs, Lucas Giolito doesn’t get a break this week as he goes against two of the top 5 offenses for the season. Between the match-ups this week, the struggles against the Cubs, and 7 walks in his last 2 starts, there’s some risk, but he’s performed too well over the season to sit him down.

If you just don’t watch Robbie Ray, you’ll be a happier Robbie Ray owner. He’s nerve wrecking to watch and may blow up your WHIP at any given time, but a K rate slightly north of 30% is enough reason to get 2 starts.

 

Start Em If You Got Em

Player Team Opp1 Opp2
Madison Bumgarner SF COL ARI
Kyle Gibson MIN TB @CHW
Blake Snell TB @MIN TEX
Zach Eflin PHI NYM @MIA

Blake Snell has fallen on some hard times recently as his control has abandoned him, but let’s remember that we were concerned about Gerrit Cole to start the season as well. Things can change quickly, but the lack of control and increasing number of walks are enough to drop him down the 2 start options.

Snell’s velocity is fine and the whiff rates on his pitches are in line with what he’s done since breaking out last season. This may be a buying opportunity and I’m still throwing Snell if I own him.

 

Serviceable

Player Team Opp1 Opp2
Julio Teheran ATL @CHC @NYM
Jon Gray COL @SF LAD
Jake Arrieta PHI NYM @MIA
Max Fried ATL @CHC @NYM
Steven Matz NYM @PHI ATL
Andrew Heaney LAA CIN OAK

Maybe it’s just something in the air, but pitchers are starting to disappoint after strong starts to the season like Max Fried and Steven Matz. Jon Gray bounced back from his own struggles in May to put together a strong June so far.

The 3 pitchers likely rank the same rest of season for me as they would’ve been before it started with Matz leading the way followed by Gray then Fried, but I believe they may end up providing similar end of season results. For this week, they each have at least one tough opponent, but they’re serviceable.

 

Place Your Bets

Player Team Opp1 Opp2
Chris Bassitt OAK @STL @LAA
Zach Davies MIL SEA PIT
Jon Lester CHC ATL @CIN
Julio Urias LAD @ARI @COL
Adam Plutko CLE KC @BAL
Trevor Richards MIA WSH PHI
Jesse Chavez TEX @DET @TB
Drew Pomeranz SF COL ARI
Aaron Sanchez TOR @NYY KC

Just like a roulette board, you’re taking chances with any one of this rather large tier. Julio Urias is an educated as we wait for the Dodgers to announce who will take Rich Hill’s spot in the rotation. Neither Ross Stripling or Urias is quite stretched out and they may combine for a 2 start effort between them.

I’d be interested in either long term if they get more of an opportunity and they may get more spot starts, if nothing else, later in the season as the Dodgers seem to have the division pretty wrapped up and likely want to keep everyone healthy for the playoffs.

The Dodgers starters aren’t the problem right now anyway as the bullpen keeps coughing up games. They have to get that ‘pen situation sorted out via trade or minor league promotion, or they’ll be watching somebody else lift the Commissioner’s Trophy.

Free Streamonator Pick of the Week: Drew Pomeranz. He gets 2 starts at home where his 4.21 ERA looks a lot more respectable than the 9.76 ERA on the road.

 

I Immediately Regret This Decision

Player Team Opp1 Opp2
Tyler Chatwood CHC ATL @CIN
Jordan Zimmermann DET TEX WSH
Marco Gonzales SEA @MIL @HOU
Brad Keller KC @CLE @TOR
Trevor Williams PIT @HOU @MIL
Jeff Hoffman COL @SF LAD
Walker Lockett NYM @PHI ATL

Tyler Chatwood is a prediction for the Cubs 2 start pitcher on the week, but if it ends up being Adbert Alzolay, that will get me more excited and he’d move up to  the large Place Your Bets group above.

 

Team 2 Start Days Predicted 1st Series 2nd Series
BAL X SD CLE
BOS X CWS NYY
NYY X TOR @BOS
TB Tuesday @MIN TEX
TOR Monday @NYY KC
CWS Monday @BOS MIN
CLE Monday KC @BAL
DET Tuesday TEX WSH
KC Monday @CLE @TOR
MIN Tuesday TB @CWS
HOU Tuesday PIT SEA
LAA Tuesday CIN OAK
OAK Tuesday @STL @LAA
SEA Tuesday @MIL @HOU
TEX Tuesday @DET @TB
ATL Monday, Tuesday @CHC @NYM
MIA Tuesday WSH PHI
NYM Monday, Tuesday @PHI ATL
PHI Monday, Tuesday NYM @MIA
WSH Tuesday @MIA @DET
CHC Monday, Tuesday ATL @CIN
CIN X @LAA CHC
MIL Tuesday SEA PIT
PIT Tuesday @HOU @MIL
STL X OAK @SD
ARZ Monday, Tuesday LAD @SF
COL Monday, Tuesday @SF LAD
LAD Monday, Tuesday @ARZ @COL
SD X @BAL STL
SF Monday, Tuesday COL ARZ
 
  1. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Seems like Chavez is going to get 2 starts for the rangers against @det and @tb. Where are you spotting him in? Thanks!

  2. 183414 says:
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    He’s listed in Place Your Bets. At least he wasn’t listed in “I immediately regret the Decision”, as I did last sunday after being the unlucky bid winner on Kukukachoo.

    • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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      Whoops, thanks!

  3. LenFuego says:
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    CBS lists Eduardo Rodriguez with starts on Monday (@CHW) and on Sunday (vs NYY). I certainly do not have the cajones to start him with a game against the Bronx, but wondering where he would slot in.

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
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      The BoSox would have to use a 4 man rotation to get anyone 2 starts this week, but it’s possible given their lack of starters right now. If he gets 2 starts, he’d fit in the Serviceable grouping for me w/ the Yankees start not being ideal, but at least they’re 25th in runs scored and 26th in HRs against lefty pitchers on the season.

      • 183414 says:
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        with no Stanton, Judge, or Hicks……

    • Chucky says:
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      The Monday ERod start is home v CHW not in Chicago

  4. krazyivan says:
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    I was going to drop Bassitt for a streaming spot but I like that he gets two chances this week and the first is @ St. Louis. I don’t know what is wrong the the Cardinals offense but “sputtering” would be an understatement.

    Please, please, please good Andrew Heaney show up. To me, great pitchers pitch good even if their best stuff isn’t working. Good pitchers are those that are only productive when they have their best stuff working. Heaney is definitely in that second category.

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
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      Bassitt has only been decent recently, but with 2 starts, I’m rolling him out there as well in most leagues. Cards just aren’t that good of an offense. On the season they’re 19th in runs, 22nd in HRs, and 24th in total bases. To your point about struggles in June, for the month they are 24th in runs, 22nd in HRs, and 25th in total bases.

      Agreed about Heaney. I couldn’t, and still can’t, figure out why people were excited about him. Even at his best, he’s been a 4 ERA pitcher with a middling K rate. Even last year when he performed admirably for at least the first half, it was really only 2 strong months that drove the season numbers.

      • 183414 says:
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        middling k rate ? I’ll take Heaney to your Bassitt.

  5. Chucky says:
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    Two starts ERod v CHW and NYY and Root Canal Robbie Ray v LAD and @ SF are preferable options to Nola v Mets, Joey Crime Family Lucchesi v StL and Gallen v Wash? Need two please

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
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      Give me Robbie Ray and Nola.

  6. 183414 says:
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    Sure hope Bieber 2 steps. 2 days off next week, so if Francona is, unlike most of today’s mgr.’s, meaning smart…he ‘ll throw Bieber on sunday, and let Bauer 2 step next week. Plutko can miss a start.

  7. M K says:
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    Eflin, wow, that hurts.

    • B_Don

      B_Don says:
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      Negative regression coming at once… brutal.

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