All the final 2011 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters are done. For those that skipped today’s title, this starts the top 20 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball. This is NOT for 2012 (caps for those still wearing their Dolphin Tale 3-D glasses). This is a recap. Will these affect next year’s rankings? Sure. But not entirely. To recapitulate, these rankings are from ESPN’s Player Rater. It’s an objective third party to fairly gauge my preseason rankings. Does this mean I think ESPN’s Player Rater is the Tootie and I’m the Natalie? No, just an unbiased comparison. Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:
1. Justin Verlander – Verlander was terrific yadda3. I’d prefer to take his blurb to talk about how easily pitchers can go wrong, or fantasy teams, in general. I had Kershaw, Hamels and Yovani as guys I wanted in the preseason. They all finished in this top 20. Unfortunately, I also had Liriano in a group of pitchers I wanted, and he was the one I ended up with in a bunch of leagues. Pitching can be found later in drafts so this didn’t kill all my leagues, but it just shows you how easily a coin flip (Liriano or Kershaw) can turn a team’s fortunes. Preseason Rank #12, 2011 Projections: 15-10/3.50/1.18/210, Final Numbers: 24-5/2.40/0.92/250
2. Clayton Kershaw – You know what’s nice about Clayton Kershaw? Everything! This article from 2010 always sticks in the back of my mind. This is pretty unfair to point out. We’ve all been wrong. Shoot, I’m wrong more than I’m right. I’m probably wrong just pointing this article out. For those who don’t have ESPN Hindsighter, the piece was written almost two years ago. (Yeah, I randomly remember shizz like this but forget where I parked my car.) The author compares Kershaw to young pitchers over the last 30 years and how they get hurt or lose velocity. He compares Kershaw to Kazmir and Ollie Perez. Only there’s no mention that Kazmir and Perez had an entirely different flaw in their games. They walked more than someone with a DUI in Los Angeles. Also, he mentions Doc Gooden. Only he doesn’t mention that Gooden had the world by the nuts until he decided to see if he could snort the foul lines. What’s also omitted in that article is that Feller, Drysdale and Blyleven did pretty well at the ripe old age of 22. Could Kershaw collapse because he has too many innings on his arm at a young age? I suppose, but not because a few prodigies did and some other prodigies didn’t. Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections: 14-8/3.00/1.15/220, Final Numbers: 21-5/2.28/0.98/248
3. Roy Halladay – The fact that Halladay ended up 3rd is more a testament to the two pitchers above him rather than an indictment on anything he did. Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections: 19-7/2.75/1.06/205, Final Numbers: 19-6/2.35/1.04/220
4. Cliff Lee – This is more of an over-arching issue with my preseason projections and the end of the year numbers. Pitchers were a lot better than I thought they’d be (or hitters were a lot worse). Guys I really liked in the preseason such as Lee, I projected an ERA for them a hair under 3.00. There were 16 pitchers with an ERA under 3.00. And a bunch of them weren’t just a “hair” under 3.00. It’s the Age of ERA-rius. Preseason Rank #3, 2011 Projections: 16-6/2.95/1.05/190, Final Numbers: 17-8/2.40/1.03/238
5. Jered Weaver – On one of the last days of the season, I took my rusty scalpel to Jered Weaver for 2011. I wrote it while remarking what a nice beaver you have. Preseason Rank #10, 2011 Projections: 15-10/3.40/1.15/195, Final Numbers: 18-8/2.41/1.01/198
6. James Shields – This might be a bit shocking to some people, but Shields’s 2010 when he had a 5.18 ERA wasn’t really that different than his 2.82 ERA this year. He gave up a few less homers, was lucky with BABIP and left more men on base. He’s been a mid-3 ERA pitcher more or less for the last two years. Preseason Rank #58, 2011 Projections: 12-8/3.95/1.30/170, Final Numbers: 16-12/2.82/1.04/225
7. Ian Kennedy – This is a bit of a continuation of what I said in the Verlander blurb about getting unlucky with my first starter. In the preseason I said I wanted Kennedy, Bumgarner, Chacin, Cueto, Morrow, Edwin Jackson, Jonathan Sanchez or de la Rosa as my fourth starter. Lots of hits there, but I could’ve ended up with the misses. I didn’t though. So luck does tend to even out. Or not. Your choice. Preseason Rank #40, 2011 Projections: 11-10/3.75/1.25/180, Final Numbers: 21-4/2.88/1.09/198
8. Cole Hamels – My pitching projections weren’t great, but the guys I told you to draft weren’t bad. I’ve pegged Hamels as a guy to go after for four (stutterer!) years now. Next year, it’ll be the fifth. Really nothing ever wrong with Hamels assuming his luck isn’t terrible. Preseason Rank #14, 2011 Projections: 14-10/3.40/1.18/190, Final Numbers: 14-9/2.79/0.99/194
9. Dan Haren – “You got your head so far up your ass your mustache is also your eyebrows! There’s no such thing as the Haren pre- and post-All Star break splits!” That’s you. This year: 2.61 ERA pre-All Star break; 3.89 ERA post-All Star break. Um, okay. Preseason Rank #20, 2011 Projections: 15-9/3.60/1.18/215, Final Numbers: 16-10/3.17/1.02/192
10. CC Sabathia – For a few years now, CC has worried me with his innings. Yeah, he’s a workhorse, but this is the 2nd year in a row where his post-All Star break numbers have been less than stellar and in 2011 it was even more pronounced. I.e., it’s pronounced: tired. Preseason Rank #5, 2011 Projections: 18-10/3.40/1.20/190, Final Numbers: 19-8/3.00/1.23/230
11. Josh Beckett – You can go ahead and read Shields’s blurb again, because it’s pretty much the same deal with Beckett. Preseason Rank #29, 2011 Projections: 15-9/4.15/1.24/170, Final Numbers: 13-7/2.89/1.03/175
12. C.J. Wilson – A recurring theme in my stupid assitude is my inability to understand relievers turned starters. Wilson didn’t feel the effects of 2010 on his arm, he actually got better. I really have no clue. Preseason Rank #49, 2011 Projections: 12-6/3.95/1.28/165, Final Numbers: 16-7/2.94/1.19/206
13. Matt Cain – As I continue to be the best ‘pert I can be, I’ve realized I should ignore certain stats for Cain. Yes, I’m smarter now because I’ve chosen to be more ignorant. You’re welcome. Preseason Rank #23, 2011 Projections: 13-9/3.50/1.12/180, Final Numbers: 12-11/2.88/1.08/179
14. Ricky Romero – In the preseason, when I told you to draft Romero, here’s what I said, “Let’s count the ways we love Ricky Romero, shall we? 7 ways! Okay, maybe I should count them out loud. 1) Will only be 26 years old. 2) Will be entering his third big league season, a time when pitchers tend to hit their stride. 3) His K-rate was 7 and half and can get better. 4) He cut his walks last year. 5) Golden rings. 6) Pitches in the AL East… Hmm… That’s not a positive. 7) There was really only 4 reasons that I stretched out to 7.” And that’s me quoting me! Preseason Rank #59, 2011 Projections: 13-6/3.65/1.30/180, Final Numbers: 15-11/2.92/1.14/178
15. Tim Lincecum – I was pretty concerned about Lincecum’s falling K-rate coming off his 2010 season…Yet, came closer to his projections than I did for most. As always, it’s better to be wrong-right than right-right. Preseason Rank #4, 2011 Projections: 15-10/3.20/1.18/225, Final Numbers: 13-14/2.74/1.21/220
16. Doug Fister – Easily the only pitcher that came completely out of nowhere. Sure, I ranked Shields way lower than he ended up, but I told y0u to draft Shields. Not only did I not mention Fister, but I wouldn’t have told you to even pick him up until around July. Fister’s season wasn’t quite as pretty as it seemed, but his K-rate was respectable and his walks were low. Fister, what a pisser! (Though not Fister in the pisser.) Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 11-13/2.83/1.06/146
17. David Price – I ranked Price 17th and he ended up 17th. Boo-ya! Unfortunately, I also said to not draft him. Again, it’s about being wrong-right. Price had a great 2010, but he actually had a better 2011. It’s a truism, or it’s supposed to be a truism, that pitchers really hit their stride in their 3rd year in the bigs. That’s what 2011 was for Price. The great sign going forward is he looks like he can continue for years to come, barring injury. Preseason Rank #17, 2011 Projections: 14-10/3.60/1.22/185, Final Numbers: 12-13/3.49/1.14/218
18. Tim Hudson – No fair, he stole Roy Oswalt’s end of the year stats. Preseason Rank #27, 2011 Projections: 14-10/3.75/1.20/130, Final Numbers: 16-10/3.22/1.14/158
19. Yovani Gallardo – As anyone knows that was around in the preseason, I was caca-cuckoo for Gallardo. I wanted him on every team. I pretty much nailed his projections too. Yet, I feel like he let me down a bit. Funny thing with this is when I really like a guy, I want them to beat my projections, not match them. That’s kinda how I am in every facet of my life too. Maybe I am just like my mother. She’s never satisfied. Preseason Rank #9, 2011 Projections: 16-9/3.30/1.24/220, Final Numbers: 17-10/3.52/1.22/207
20. Felix Hernandez – F-Her can get lumped in with Shields and Beckett. He had pretty much the same season this year as he had in 2010 when he won the Cy Young. Only this year, he won an extra game, his K-rate was better, his luck was worse and he gave up two extra homers. As his spooner cousin Helix Fernandez would say, “Most people just saw a downward spiral year. Not wanting to see how his xFIP was similar from 2010 to 2011. Or they just went DNA. You know, Did Not Address.” Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections: 16-12/2.80/1.10/220, Final Numbers: 14-14/3.47/1.22/222
