This is one of the most difficult posts to write all year. Why do I find it hard to write the next line? Oh, I want the truth to be said, Spandau Ballet. There’s just so many different ways the top 20 for 2014 fantasy baseball could go. Maybe next year I’ll write a top 10 for 2014 fantasy baseball with a ten way tie for the tenth ranked guy. Last year, I had Kemp crazy low and Posey even lower. Those made sense. I had Adam Jones higher than anyone and Paul Goldschmidt even higher. Score! I also had A-Gon and Josh Hamilton in the top twenty. Hey, they ain’t all gems. Looking into my crystal ball tells me this year is gonna be even harder. Pitchers are dominating the sport. Doesn’t mean I can go completely crackers and just put ten starters in the top twenty. I wouldn’t draft a starter in the top twenty so I won’t tell you to do it. Finding twenty hitters isn’t going to be easy, but, while thinking of me as your weird uncle that you can only talk about baseball with, let’s find them together. There’s many question marks and even an interrobang or two. Does Tulo stay healthy? Does Pujols stop the career decline? Oh, and what the eff do we make of Braun?! Lots of questions to be answered as we continue our 2014 fantasy baseball rankings. There are not as many guarantees as I’d like. Kershaw seems more safe than any of these hitters, but you can find so much pitching later, he didn’t even make the top 20. Remember, one pick does not a team make. Here’s just twenty picks you should make. Anyway, here’s the top 20 for 2014 fantasy baseball:
11. Evan Longoria – This tier started in the top 10 for 2014 fantasy baseball. I called this tier, “UGH.” This tier ends here. Longoria’s projections won’t be that different than Prince Fielder and he has better position eligibility, so why the Ugh? Let’s see, he seems to never stay healthy. He only hit 14 homers and .257 in the 2nd half last year. He hit .194 in the month of July, eliminating a lot of fantasy teams that drafted him from contention. Going for him, he does have similar stats to Prince Fielder as mentioned on the aforementioned tip. If he can get 105+ RBIs, which shouldn’t be hard if guys in front of him actually get on base, he earns this value pretty easily. As with most Ughs, the worst case scenario for Longoria isn’t bad — a 30 homer, 90 RBI, .265 season, if he stays healthy. Best case scenario, he wins the MVP and has the huge year he’s been hinting at for years. 2014 Projections: 96/31/103/.273/3
12. Albert Pujols – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Hanley. I call this tier, “Luckily, it’s not last year.” The 2nd round is one land mine after another. I need the Ghost of Princess Di to guide me. “Hello, Grey, this is the Ghost of Princess Di. If you hold my tiara, I will help you cross the 2nd round without hitting any land mines. Just as soon as I shake this paparazzi that’s following me into this tunnel.” Nooooooooo, Ghost of Princess Di! I don’t think Pujols is done done or simply done or even simply simply done. He was hurt last year and still on pace for his usual numbers. If the Angels would’ve been in the race, he would’ve legged out the season– Okay, bad choice of words. He would’ve limped out the season and still got 30 homers, near-.280 and 100 RBIs. I wouldn’t expect much more than that and, with another year under his belt, there’s a chance we see some more stat erosion. 2014 Projections: 90/30/104/.277/4
13. Joey Votto – “Hello, this is the Ghost of Princess Di and I’ve shooken the paparazzi like a good Bond martini.” There’s no shooken, GoPD. It’s shaken. “No, British ghosts say shooken. You should hear the Ghost of Winston Churchill shooken’ing all over the place. Now, do you want me to help you with Joey Votto or not?” I’m okay, thanks. “Cheerio!” Last year, I was thinking if we got lucky, Goldschmidt could be Votto in a good year. Now, I hope Votto is Goldschmidt. Talk about a zig zagging on me. I’ve been zigzagged on! I used to love Votto, and maybe I still have some residual feelings for even ranking him this high, but I look at his line last year and think that if he just would’ve had better luck with RBIs, we wouldn’t be talking about how he had such a fackfuster year. Hey, who switched my F’s and L’s? Fuckily, they didn’t switch my A’s and U’s too. Don’t see Votto busting through 30 homers, but very lew hitters can nowadays, which is easier than two-a-days, but barefy. 2014 Projections: 89/26/102/.309/7
14. Jose Bautista – The Cougar and I like to dress up in a horse costume. I’m the ass and she’s the face. Not because she looks like Sarah Jessica Parker, but because I’m an ass. I mention this now because I’m being an ass putting Bautista this high. He would’ve had a huge year last year if he didn’t get hurt. But he did get hurt, and he was hurt the year before too. He’ll be 33 years old this year and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him disappoint once again. Unfortch, you can count the number of guys with a legit chance for 40 homers on one hand and that’s after losing your pinkie in a Vitamix accident. 2014 Projections: 85/35/100/.255/5
15. Ryan Braun – We should add a new term to our glossary for when a high-priced player is out with the flu. I will call them Givenchy because it sounds like someone sneezing. Hat tip to 2 Chainz. I bring this up now because there’s so much to talk about with Ryan Braun, I don’t even know where to start. Was he meeting A-Rod’s cousin in the back alleys of Milwaukee for his entire career? Was he doing it for just the last two years? Why do we eat unleavened bread? Ma nish ta nah, Hebrew Hammer! In 2010, he hit 25 homers with 14 steals. If he was on juice then, then what are we going to get this year? A productive Omar Infante year? Is he gonna show up to camp one hundred and forty pounds of a skull and bones? Is he gonna look like Christian Bale in The Machinist? Is the Anti-Defamation League going to fine me for mentioning camp, skull and bones and Hebrew in the same paragraph? I really have no clue. I’m sure at some point in the preseason I’ll have a post dedicated to just Braun, but for now it’s all guesswork. Anyone who tells you different is blowing hot air up your hooha. 2014 Projections: 88/24/94/.280/15
16. Hanley Ramirez – Maybe I was too quick to blow off the Ghost of Princess Di. This round is a real mess of potential land mines. Like, fo’really. When you’re in the 2nd round drafting, don a pith helmet and a safari outfit and call yourself Pitfall Harry because everywhere you look you need to jump over pits, quicksand, rolling logs, fire, rattlesnakes, scorpions, and crocodiles, and that’s just what’s listed for the Pitfall! Wikipedia page. Hanley could be terrific, but I’ll be damned if I were to sit here — and I am sitting — and tell you he’s safe. I guess the worst case scenario is a 20/20 season as he hits .250. Not soul crushing. The upside is obviously extreme if he continues to do what he did last year over a full season like he’s twenty-seven again as played by a young Robby Benson. 2014 Projections: 87/25/94/.272/18
17. Adrian Beltre – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Encarnacion. I call this tier, “If you would’ve told me three years ago that these guys felt safe in the 2nd round, I would’ve told you that you skipped your crazy meds.” The tier name says so much, doesn’t it? (It does.) Beltre is a safe 2nd rounder? A few years ago he looked like a perennial 25-homer, .260 hitter. Well, .260 and 25 homers is 30 homers and .295 in Arlington. Then you throw in Prince Fielder…Well, you don’t literally throw Prince Fielder in anywhere unless you can bench press 750 pounds. There will be plenty of time for upside picks later, if you get the chance to make a safe choice in the 2nd round, I’d take it. 2014 Projections: 85/31/104/.303/1
18. Edwin Encarnacion – Safe? Encarnacion wasn’t even draftable three years ago, and it’s not like he was a rookie. He played full seasons from 2006 to 2011, just not very well. Then, one wintery day in 2011, Dwayne Murphy yelled at Edwin, “I’m Della Reese, bitch! Now come here so I can touch you.” And like that, Edwin has never been the same. You, “Is Edwin really safe safe?” What are you, a stutterer? I don’t know if he’s safe safe, but he’s had back-to-back power years as good as anyone in the league, so you gotta bet on him following The Rule of Threes. 2014 Projections: 87/32/97/.269/7
19. Yasiel Puig – This is a new tier. This tier goes here to Bruce. I call this tier, “Take a chance on Puig and Bruce.” Well, if you would’ve told me three years ago that Puig would be safe, I would’ve said, “What the hell is a Pweeg? Is that a dining room set from Ikea? I’ll buy it, but you need to put it together.” Puig doesn’t play the game the right way, according to some old school baseball analcysts. The old school way to play baseball is to show up at the stadium drunk because Arnold Rothstein said so. There’s no word for nostalgia when you’re talking about present day because it doesn’t exist. Nostalgia and revisionism go hand in hand. When Reggie Jackson was playing, he was a ‘hot dog,’ not a team player, bad on defense and people now say he was one of the best ‘when it mattered.’ Who cares if Pweeg drove his Ferrari through a school zone doing 175 MPH? Playing the game the right way is for Abner Doubleday’s great-great-great nephew, Gene. Let’s worry more about what a player can do when he’s not playing the right way. Or maybe Puig does play the right way, because he plays like the rent’s due. Sure, it’s risky when going on such a small sample size, but Pujols, Prince Fielder, Hanley or any number of players above Puig can disappoint and have before. Puig can hit 30 homers and steal 20 bases. The number of players that can do that without killing you on average after the top 20 is…um…Well, no one. 2014 Projections: 90/28/94/.285/20
20. Jay Bruce – This draft pick is obviously more for roto than H2H leagues. I’ll be along with a top 100 and a top 400 for guys that might be more consistent. Bruce is a strange beast. He’s crazy inconsistent from day-to-day, week-to-week, but wildly consistent from year-to-year and this year he turns 27 years old. The magic number. I’m drafting Jay Bruce on every team I can. This is his year. Last year, I went all in on Goldschmidt at the back-end of the 2nd round and, honestly, Jay Bruce is an easier call. He’s a lock for 30 homers and 7 steals already. Goldschmidt wasn’t a lock for that going into last year. Last year, Bruce bumped his line drive rate up to 23.9%. That’s around the same level as Miguel Cabrera. This is pretty rudimentary, but if you’re hitting line drives, you should hit for a higher average. Why Bruce didn’t hit for a higher average last year is because his contact rate fell. If he can harness his contact rate and line drive rate, he’ll hit .285. As for power, he’s already had a 35-homer year. He’s 27 years old now. Is he more likely a guy that will go from 30 homers to 23 or 30 homers to 37 homers? Seems like an obvious answer there. Then you have a favorable hitting park, hitting behind an OBP machine in Votto and a stealing loon in Hamilton. Everything is in place this year for Bruce. Or as Tony Danza would say, “Bruce is the boss.” 2014 Projections: 95/34/112/.272/7
After the top 20 for 2014 fantasy baseball there’s a ton of names, but this one stands out:
Clayton Kershaw – This isn’t about Kershaw. He’s awesome. I love him. If I was gonna do a gay maneuver, I’d give Kershaw a handieburger. It’s not about my love or lack of love for Kershaw. You should not draft a pitcher in the first two rounds. Again with caps, DO NOT DRAFT A PITCHER IN THE FIRST TWO ROUNDS. Don’t make me go bolding shizz. There’s pitching everywhere. A top 20 starter just fell out of your backyard tree. I swear to God, look out your window. See?! What you won’t see fall out of your backyard tree is a 40-homer hitter. I’d prefer you drafted Ellsbury or Giancarlo or some other hitter that didn’t make my top twenty than a pitcher. You can draft five pitchers after the top 100 and have a competitive team. You can’t draft an entire outfield after the top 100 and have a competitive team. Or a 1st base and 3rd baseman. Kershaw is the wind under Bette Midler’s wings, but you should not draft him. 2014 Projections: 17-6/2.65/1.03/222
