Not Your Grandfather’s Top 100 Starting Pitchers…
Back when I was just a young Jack, Grandpa-Donk would regale all us little Donks with tales of his extensive world travels. The old donk especially enjoyed visiting Mexico. On his first venture down south of the border, gramps experienced the full wrath of Montezuma’s Revenge. His exact words, “Coming out both ends for days”. But somehow, after that maiden voyage to the other side of the Rio Grande, G-Donk never again suffered the Hispanic Hershey Squirts.
This reminds me of the curious case of Francellis “Frankie” Montas. Last year Montas started 11 games from the end of May thru October. After posting three quality starts in his first three outings, Montaszuma’s Revenge hit abruptly, as Frankie managed only 2 quality starts over the course of his next eight outings. The Runs were plentiful, if you know what I’m saying.
This season Montas has come out with some solid logs. Game logs, I mean. Thru his first four 2019 starts, the one named Francellis has thrown 23 1/3 IP, boasting three quality starts, a 2.70 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, an increased K rate, decreased walk rate, and loads of fiber in his diet. One cause for optimism this go round, is the addition of a nasty splitter to his repertoire this year which opponents are batting a measly .143 against. The splitter complements an elite fastball which is up almost one full mile per hour from last season, now sitting at an average velocity of 96.6 mph, along with an above average slider. Mr. Montaszuma has also been getting ahead of hitters often in the early going with a lofty 63% first pitch strike rate. Make sure Montas isn’t available in your league, I can wait.
Here are some other guys who may have found the Metamucil…
Kevin Gausman (+28) – We’ve only been waiting around 12 years for Kevin Gas-Can to deliver on his potential. I’d be lying if I said I fully trust this guy, but we can’t ignore what Gausman’s done in his first three starts. Like Montas, KG is getting ahead of hitters regularly with a 60.6% first pitch strike rate and he’s seen a large boost in K rate from 19.1% to 31%, albeit against some mediocre opponents so far. Gausman has also increase his swinging strike rate from 11.3% to 14.9%, while using his throwing his splitter a whooping 33.2% of the time (21.9% in 2018). Monitor his next few starts closely, there’s a chance this breakout is real.
Madison Bumgarner (+3) – When I published the last edition of the top 100, Grey came trolling thru the comments saying I had MadBum ranked too high. Since that publishing, Bum has posted one very good outing and two mediocre outings, but I’m still very encouraged with what I’ve seen, and there’s some interesting data backing up my optimism. The increases in fastball and curveball spin rate this season are substantial and significant. All of the underlying numbers I care about are improved from last year as well. Bumgarner isn’t the kind of guy you want to make a habit of writing off. Buy low.
Julio Urias (NA) – I was down by the schoolyard last week and Julio stood me up, but he made up for it with a beautiful line at Miller Park this week. Urias is headed to the bullpen, but I predict it won’t be for too long. Kershaw and Hill are literally sneezes away from the IL. Urias is worth holding onto in all but the most shallow formats and should be useful even in a bullpen role.
Clayton Kershaw (NA) – His velocity is down another tick from last year, but we know Kershaw will show up whenever he can manage to put his socks on. I can’t in good conscience rank a healthy looking Kershaw below #15. As mentioned in the Urias blurb, I doubt this lasts, so enjoy it while it does. I’ll take the under on 130 IP and would be trying to sell if I somehow owned him.
Drew Smyly (+39) – Donkey is recommending a guy with a 7.80 ERA and a 1.94 WHIP, he’s officially lost it! Shut up random italicized voice! Walks have been an issue so far, but the 25.1% K rate has me aroused. He’s another guy that’s getting ahead of hitters at an impressive clip with a 69.3% first pitch strike rate. I’m not saying to go grab him in a 12-team league, but if you’re playing a deeper format then he’s worth a look.
Here are some guys who may be lacking fiber in their diets…
Yusei Kikuchi (-5) – The Kooch is killing me. I’m starting to think I shouldn’t have mortgaged my mom’s house to invest in Kikuchi Koozies. He’s struggled in the early innings (innings 1-3: 18 IP, 6.00 ERA, 1.66 WHIP; innings 4-6: 14 2/3 IP, 3.07 ERA, 0.89 WHIP) and I do think he’s still settling into the MLB scene, but I can’t deny he’s been tough to own so far. That said, the K upside isn’t huge and if you want to move on in shallow leagues then I won’t argue any longer. I’m still buying in deeper leagues, but I might be delusional.
Joey Lucchesi (-31) – Joey Bag O Donuts? More like Joey Bag O Sh*t! Amiright? The FIP and xFIP fairies are whispering that Lucchesi isn’t actually this bad. I do believe those fairies, but he’s also one of those two-pitch guys which really limits his upside. The K potential is fun, but I’m fine moving on for now in shallower leagues. In completely unrelated news, Grey has just fired me, again.
Edit: I wrote this blurb before Sunday’s nice start vs. the Reds, but my position still stands. I think there’s going to be plenty of ups and downs with Joey Bag O D’s.
Stephen Strasburg (-2) – I was all ready to trash Strasburg and then he had to go out and throw an 8 inning gem with 11 Ks in a rehab outing against the Marlins Low-A squad. Wait, I’m being told that wasn’t a rehab outing? That’s the Marlins MLB lineup? My bad.
Strasburg’s average fastball velocity is down a full mile per hour from last year’s average, but it’s in line with where he was when he returned from injury in August and September 2018. To my surprise, he actually had some beautiful numbers across 34 2/3 September innings last year (2.60 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 11.68 K/9). Now if anyone is buying this recent start against the Marlins as the real Strasburg then I’d sell him before you finish reading the rest of this article, but if you own him he’s probably just a hold at this point. I expect him to be mostly middle of the road with some gems and stinkers mixed in.
Jacob deGrom (NA)– I’m overwhelmed, there are just way too many Mets doctor jokes to choose from. Speaking of Mets doctors, I actually just got a call from my cousin Donkey Lips with some great news: the Mets have hired him on as the new head of their medical staff. He tells me deGrom’s hoofs are in great shape. In all seriousness, will anyone be surprised if deGrom needs Tommy John at this point? If the MRI comes back completely clean today then deGrom will slot back into my #1 spot when he returns, in spite of his early season struggles. deGrom, Scherzer, Bauer, and Snell are all really close for me right now, assuming they’re all healthy. Assemble the prayer hexagon.
Anyway, here’s my updated Top 100 Starting Pitchers for 2019 Fantasy Baseball:
*Assumes they’re pitching this week
Injured: Jacob deGrom, Luis Severino, Mike Clevinger, Nate Eovaldi, Jimmy Nelson, Andrew Heaney, Alex Wood, Carlos Martinez, Marco Estrada, Wade LeBlanc, Danny Salazar, Taijuan Walker, Ryan Borucki, Edinson Volquez, Matt Moore (season), Matt Shoemaker (season)
On the Farm: Forrest Whitley, Alex Reyes, Jesus Luzardo, Jon Duplantier, Corbin Burnes, Sean Newcomb, Jonathan Loaisiga, Nick Pivetta, Touki Toussaint, Brent Honeywell, Mitch Keller, Joe Ross, Kyle Wright, Daniel Mengden, AJ Puk, Luiz Gohara, Justus Sheffield, Gio Gonzalez, Casey Mize
Unsigned: Dallas Keuchel
Out of the Pen: Julio Urias, Josh James, Ross Stripling, Bryse Wilson, Luis Cessa, Nick Kingham, Framber Valdez, Nate Karns
Find Donkey Teeth on Twitter @DonkeyTeeth87. Subscribe to his podcast: Ditka, Sausage, and Fantasy Sports on Itunes, Stitcher, or wherever you get your podcasts.
All statistics courtesy of Fangraphs & Baseball Savant.
Thinking of buying low on Nola and selling my boy Marquez – what say you? Marquez is nice but Coors, man. Also in a league that counts HRs for pitchers and Nolas periphs suggest he’s still there last I checked.
I think it’s fair and it’s probably a good time to buy Nola but I prefer Marquez, even in a league that counts HRs against the pitcher…
Yea I’d let Sonny Gray go for him
Sonny looks awesome tonight.
He’s been surprisingly good this year. Where are these Is coming from?
I still gotta take Darvish though…
Donkey Teeth,
Someone dropped Yu already. Worth an add? If so who gets dropped?
My staff
Nola
Tailon
Kershaw
Beiber
German
Bench
Gray S
Glasnow
Lucchesi
Yea I’d let Sonny Gray go for him
Piecing together a trade for scherzer (owner is ready to bail haha) and need some help. Keep 2 league with 2 round penalty each year. Looking to give up a SS and maybe a CI, or OF. Relevant keepers have round they can be kept next year listed next to name.
Dejong, Tatis (24th) – (I have machado, mondesi, and Bregman thus the willingness to part with others)
Rizzo, Alonso (24th) – (I will be needing somewhere to play Guerrero when he comes up)
Dahl, Santana (24th), Marte – (no need for 6 OF also have Acuna, Soto, and Hoskins)
Looks like you’re pretty loaded. I wouldn’t be too concerned about keepers since you only keep 2 and you seem to have plenty of options.
Maybe see if two of Alonso, Marte, Dahl and Dejong does it? Dejong and an OF seem pretty expendable with your team. If you have to I’d be willing to give Alonso, Dejong and one of those OFs..
Yeah I got pretty lucky with some timely pick ups, good draft prep, and some mates making bad trades. Thanks for the insight! Keep the good content coming!
No problem, glad you’re enjoying it!
I just dropped Piscotty (bench bat) for Montas. I had been trying, with no luck, to trade one of my extra out fielders for pitching. So I’m looking at this as a nice trade. Thanks for the write up!
Nice, it’s tough to trade Piscotty types in shallower leagues but I like the swap.
No problem!
5×5, 10 teams.. Drop Aaron Sanchez for Rich Hill?
Yep, I’d want Hill.
The bathroom humor abounds. Hershey squirts….solid logs….and my favorite, “The Runs were plentiful, if you know what I’m saying.”
Something about a screen door and never hitting the mesh comes to mind…
14-team 5×5 QS roto
This week I’m rolling with Bauer, Cahill, Fried, Gausman, Hendricks, and Swanson for sure.
Eickhoff might start.
I can either go 2 or 3 RPs (Saves + Holds league)
Diego Castillo, Swarzak, and Leclerc.
Do I dare throw Leclerc in there??
Haha I’m glad you enjoyed. I like the screen door imagery, may have to store that one in the memory bank.
I’d bench Leclerc for Eickoff this week…
Done!
Sup, DT,
With your Mantas crush, would you drop Maeda for him? Also, I’m looking for ego strokes: In my 10 team, head-head, OPS and -k, and quality start, k/9 league, I just traded away Tim Anderson and Hamels for Buehler and Andrus. Feeling prettay, prettay good, but am I too confident, or would you also be strokin’?
Cheers,
TeacherMan
Sup, Teach,
Yes, I’d make that swap in a 10 team league…I’m always looking for upside in shallow leagues like that and Montas oozes upside.
Awesome trade! Get that Jergens out! The upgrade from Hamels to Buehler is much, much greater than the upgrade from Andrus to Anderson IMO.
It’s never great to get too confident, the fantasy gods have a way of knocking us back down when that happens. But you should definitely be strokin. Why even play if you aren’t gonna stroke?
Haha, love it!
To your “don’t become Icarus” advice: no sooner than the trade processed, Andrus got whacked on the wrist. Hope all’s good there (*sweating*).
I’m gonna make that SP upgrade today.
Off to Walgreens for now…
Thanks, man,
TM
Haha, no problem. Good luck!
Should I move Tatis for Bauer in a 16-team OPS keeper?
I’ve got Verlander, Sale, Flaherty, Wheeler, and Peacock as SPs now. Just called up Tatis from my MiLB as a UTL bat.
Tough one, your pitching looks pretty good already but its tough to pass up if youre going for it. Is it roto? How do you feel about your offense? Does the league have an MI slot?
My lineup is as follows:
C-Jansen
1B-Abreu
2B-Muncy
3B-JRam
SS-Mondesi
LF-Yelich
Cf-Laureano (with marte on IL)
RF- JD Martinez
UTL-Tatis
Bench-Tauchman
16-team. H2H.
Cats: R, HR, RBI, SB, OPS//W, ERA, WHIP, K, NSVH
I recently moved Conforto to get Verlander, so I hesitate moving another young stud for a top flight SP.
That help any??
Thanks DT!
And no MI slot
How do the keepers work?
Keep starting lineups. Pitching keepers are 2 SP, 2 RP, and 3 generic P slots.
We can keep up to 6 MiLB too. I’ve got Kiriloff, Valera, L. Garcia(nats), Larnach, and Gorman
I’d do it, its a really fair deal. Those offensive rosters are pretty shallow and yours is stacked even without Tatis. Your pitching should be untouchable, although it might already be without Bauer.
You might regret the deal in a year but that’s a championship squad you have so I’d push all in.
Wish the Padres would trade either Renfroe or Reyes (whoever the Indians want), Mejia, and any prospect besides Quantrill or Gore for Bauer. Not sure what that genius Preller is waiting for. Then again, Howdy Doody is their mgr.
Just keep sending Mejia back and forth?
Which 2-start streamer do you like for this week in a 10 tm H2H QS league?
Swanson @SD, vs Tex
Weaver @Pit, vs ChC
Always love these lists. Thanks for the write-up, DT.
I’d go with Swanson.
Thanks, no problem!
Need to do 2 for 1 with Snell coming off the IL so who should I look to get if I combo t Richards/boyd/matz
Looking for a solid starter
12 teams and still have solid pitching if I get rid of 2 of them
I’d try for the Bieber, Bumgarner, Castillo area and see if anyone bites. You’ll probably need to include Boyd…
Strahm or Margevicius
Strahm
How do you value Lugo with the Mets now? Drop Paddack, Ottavino or D. Castillo in TB for Lugo? Craig Kimbrel is dead to me now and FOREVER, thanks.
I’d hold with what you have. Kimbrel is dead to me also.
No problem.
Great, thank you.
Anytime
Drafted Kimberly on 2 teams. I’d drop him if I didn’t have to spend $120 on Neris. Oh yeah, Kepler is still the mgr.
Shane Bieber 7 spots ahead of Stephen Strasburg…lol for sure…definitely
Bieber is 23 and has had one bad outing like every other pitcher in the game. Strasburg is 30, bleeding velocity, always hurt, and hes had three poor outings. These guys are headed in opposite directions IMO.
Let’s touch base in couple weeks…if I’m way off base you can get in line to give me shit behind my girlfriend, Donkey Breath.
Archer is #31 and Chirinos is #50 ? Have to disagree, even with Chirinos’ blow up after he was their 3d pitcher starting the 5th inning. Sometimes, even the better run teams overthink their pitching strategy. For example, if anyone can tell me the wisdom of throwing Fried out there for the 7th, leading 10-0 and throwing 90 pitches….on april 21. Braves are a poorly run organization, to say the least. Let’s screw with the youngster’s confidence after going 6 strong, with a 10-0 lead. More than 1/2 the mgr.’s today are puppets and/or clueless.
Totally agree on Chirinos, it made no sense to me. Very frustrating. I thought 50th was decently aggressive on him though. Maybe I’m putting a little too much value on Archer’s innings, but they are pretty dependable.
Where would you rank the two of em?
I have not much of a problem with Chirinos due to the manner in which Tampa Bay phucks with him (IMO), but Archer, 70 sounds about right.
Oooof you hate Archer! One thing we know with Archer is the Ks and innings will be there, which gives him big upside IMO.
Not saying I think he’ll ever meet his upside, but he has before and I think it’s still in there.
So deGrom is injured, but Snell and Folty aren’t? Also, wouldn’t a relative of yours be someone like, say, Mule Teeth? Keeping the last name, not the first name… I might also just be fired up from the Lucchesi blurb…
Good point about Snell. A fractured/broken toe is not a big deal? Try pushing off of any fractured/broken digit. Or maybe I’m just a big pussy.
It was his right toe so he won’t have to push off of it. Maybe I’m just an optimist! (except for Mets pitchers)
Don’t pretend to know how my people/animals handle surnames.
Those other guys got asterisks and degrom got a blurb. Plus those other guys dont pitch for the Mets.
Donkey Lips actually just called. The Mets have decided to amputate and teach degrom to throw lefty, just to be safe.
Hell is a waiting room to see a Mets doctor
That’s a lofty rating for Folty. In my humble opinion, his AAA K/BB stats plus Atlanta pushing his return back are red flags for his health not being 100%.
Thanks for the heads up, tigersharkz. I didn’t look too close at his rehab stats. I really dont know how much to make of them but I’m definitely concerned about his health regardless. You could be right that I have him too high.
Hey Donkey,
Just sold high with T.Anderson and managed to snag C.Kluber. Im guessing you like this deal? Sent out some feelers and the owner with Kluber bit. I already had C.Seager and A.Bregman at SS so T.Anderson wasnt really needed. He was great at UTIL but I cant imagine his run to last all season.
Hey dontbichetteme,
Yes, I like it. Kluber has started slow before. Hope it works out for you!
My starting 6 heading into the year were Carrasco, Nola, Wheeler, Luchessi, McHugh, and Montas.
In a 16 team league I thought it is pretty good.
I am last in ERA (about 5.50) and 3rd from the bottom in WHIP.
That’s rough, Papa. On the plus side Carrasco seems fine. It’s still early…
H/H points…..start 5 per week & trying to upgrade for a SPer in a trade by using two from the list below…who and what could I expect back ( fair) or just leave as is
Scherzer
Bauer
Taillon
Tanaka
Fried
Wheeler
German
CC
Lucchesi
Nelson (IL)
Gotcha. I think I answered it above. If you can find a buyer I think its a good time to sell Fried and I’d try to package him with Tanaka or Wheeler for a decent upgrade.
Sorry, I’m confused by the question.
What single SP would be a good target in exchange for Tanaka and Fried? And same question for Tanaka & Wheeler?
If that is the question….
For Tanaka & Fried I’d be looking for one of the guys in my top 20…maybe try for Flaherty, Nola, Bieber or Castillo.
For Tanaka & Wheeler I’d be looking for top 10-15…Marquez, Buehler, Corbin or Paxton would be decent targets.
Hope that helps.
Damn, you weren’t kidding. He really did have you confused. In fact, you were so confused you forgot how to reply properly!
My brain has just now recovered
H/H points league……
Tanaka & Freed or Wheeler will bring me back what SPer
Sorry, I’m confused by the question.
What single SP would be a good target in exchange for Tanaka and Fried? And same question for Tanaka & Wheeler?
If that is the question….
For Tanaka & Fried I’d be looking for one of the guys in my top 20…maybe try for Flaherty, Nola, Bieber or Castillo.
For Tanaka & Wheeler I’d be looking for top 10-15…Marquez, Buehler, Corbin or Paxton would be decent targets.
Hope that helps.
Please rank for next start only:
E. Swanson (vTEX $13.6)
Gibson (vBAL $12.8)
Eickhoff (vMIA $7.5)
Any have long-term appeal in a 12 teamer?
I think Streamonator has it right for next start only.
They’re all likely 12 team streamers, but Swanson has the most long term appeal to me. He’s young, has good stuff, good park and could fool the league the first time thru.
I’m not betting on this, but in a dream world I think he could turn into the dominant 2017 version of Jimmy Nelson.
What up Donkey Teeth!
Drop Woodrough for E. Swanson? or maybe Morgot?
my pitching has been straight garbage.
I dropped peralta and picked up montas.
Dropped pivetta because he sucks and was sent down. picked up Minor.
Picked up Soroka.
Hey Juan!
Nice moves.
Sure, I’m fine with swapping Woodruff for Swanson and seeing if you can catch lightning in a bottle. He has a couple good match ups this week and could be a fast riser for me…
Assuming a signing and full health…where would Jimmy Nelson or Keuchel fit?
Good question.
Keuchel, depending where he lands, I think I’d throw in around 70ish to start and expect him to rise to the 50ish area once he kicks all the rust off.
Nelson is a little tougher for me since we haven’t seen him in well over a year. I’ll probably start him in that 70ish area as well if his rehab outings go alright. If Nelson’s fully healthy and right, he has legit top 20 upside but I’m not holding my breath.
So if someone is sniffing around to make a deal for either pining for the good ole days…jump on it because it’s prolly not coming?
Yep, it’s possible but I’d bet good money against it…
Looking to trade Luchessi for a bat. What range can I shoot for? Was offered Matz + Gurriel in a 5×5 roto. Thoughts?
Well I have Matz over Lucchesi so I’d do that.
How many teams in your league? Gurriel doesn’t have a ton of value in shallower formats…
I have Musgrove, McHugh, Fried, Glasnow, Paxton, Taillon,Smith, Paddack, and Montas in a 10 team mixed redraft H2H league.
Would you consider Rodon and/or Soroka over any of them?
I like to go for upside with only 10 teams so I’d probably go with Rodon over Smith, but they’re close for me. If your league doesn’t have a moves limit then I might just play the match ups with those guys…
Thanks. My league doesn’t have a moves limit. At this point I expect I will make the playoffs (6 teams get in). It’s more about testing pitchers and trying to find the diamonds that will help me win the league later in the year.
Got it. You have a good group there…
Cut Stripling for Trevor Williams. Decent move?
10 team, K/ERA/WHIP/W/L/K:BB/NSV
Yep, I like it. There’s no need to stash Stripling in a 10 team league. Williams is putting up some solid K/BB numbers also.
Nice work!
That is all.
Thanks!
Thanks, Rice!
Have Scherzer but need pitching help…
Offered a couple packages.
One team has Paxton and Glasnow, but I am trying to get Kershaw and Paxton
Another offer was Strasburg and Morton.
Any thoughts or what else I should shoot for?
I think I’d hold Scherzer unless you can get at least one of the other guys in my top 10 plus another guy in the top 20. I have confidence in Scherzer turning it around.
Can you ship some offense off for pitching instead?
Thoughts on a Quantity vs Quality Blockbuster? Scherzer, Keller and Renato or Bieber, Ray and Matt Chapman. 12 team keeper wit no contracts.
I like the Scherzer side, I usually lean toward quality in 12 teamers.
I do love Bieber though and Ray/Chapman are both solid pieces. I could easily see it going your way plus you got the better long term pieces. And at the very least Branch Rickey won’t haunt your dreams.
You da man!
No, you da man!
Thoughts on Soroka?
He looked good to me in that first start. He has plus command and some decent secondary stuff. I don’t think he’s ever gonna wow with strikeouts so in shallower formats (10-12 teams) I have him pegged as more of a streamer. There’s also still a lot of mouths to feed in Atlanta, so these young guys have short leashes.
DT,
What are you thoughts on Nola. His peripherals don’t look good at all. I was offered Nola for Clint Frazier and Glasnow. Hesitant to pull the trigger. I’m in a shallow 10 team roto using QS. My other option is to move Frazier for Raisel Iglesias.
My SP are Marquez, Buehler, Flaherty, Carrasco, Glasnow, Folty (IL). RP are Leclerc (dropping for Colome if he clears waivers for me), Giles and J. Hicks.
Thoughts on either deal?
I’m not a huge Nola fan, but at that price I’d buy. K’s look good, and he’s never had this kind of trouble with walks and HRs…I’d bet on things normalizing.
In a 10 team league I expect you’ll find a Frazier replacement and saves pretty easily.
So you would move both Glasnow and Frazier for Nola based on my current SP and RP?
You’re right, Frazier can be replaced so it’s basically a Glasnow for Nola trade. If I can get 200K and a 3.50 or better ERA and QS I’m not sure Glasnow could provide, might be worth it.
Yes
I just got G. Cole for Frazier and Glasnow instead. I think that’s better.
Well done!