Is this the Ace that no one is talking about? Sometimes we have to take a stand, right? Sometimes we have to go out on a limb, correct? In 2019 I’m planting my flag with the Cardinals up and comer Jack Flaherty, to return better results than the Top 20 Starting Pitcher he’s already being drafted as. Is it too bold to declare him a Top 10 arm? I’m making that claim! And Prospect Jesus didn’t do anything to dispute my declaration, with some eye popping numbers the data provides. Check it out, and see if you agree.

 

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  1. OaktownSteve says:
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    Nice guys. Ralph I think you might want to recheck the numbers on the swings and misses. The slider was very good, but at 25ish percent it’s below the 30+ percent you see with the really elite pitches. The whiff rate on the four seam was below 10% which is probably around average. I think he does benefit from the variety in the pitch mix but I also think the underlying whiff rates point towards a slight regression of the k rate. I think the league may make some adjustments and wouldn’t be surprised to see him take a small step back this year.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @OaktownSteve: You looking at Baseball Savant?

      • OaktownSteve says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz:

        Yeah I go by whiff/pitch over on Brooks instead of whiff/swing as I feel like it also incorporates how often the pitch is swung at as well as swung at and missed. But I should have known you were looking at per swing. Like I said, the slider for me is in the very good category. League slugged .426 in the second half against the four seam and with the swing and miss rate it looks like it will settle in as a mostly average pitch. I liked him and owned him on all my teams last year. but he’s a little too high for me right now.

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
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          @OaktownSteve: I think there’s another gear here. The four seamer is around 12% on Brooks vs RHB. He has a different plan of attack for lefties. uses the two-seamer more vs RHB, but doesn’t feature the secondary* secondaries as much versus RHB.

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
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          @OaktownSteve: It’s funny I just looked at players I liked over ADPs.

  2. Harley Earl says:
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    I’ve seen Flaherty in person in Memphis several times. I was really impressed with his poise and demeanor on the mound, not to mention his stuff. I liked him so much I had him on all three of my fantasy teams last year, including my dynasty league in which I picked Flaherty up while in AA in 2017. I met Flaherty one night after a game, seemed like a really nice and genuine guy. I say this because I think it shows that he has his head on straight and his priorities in order. I noticed that Ralph kinda rolled his eyes or got a little funny look when Andy spoke of Flaherty overtaking Martinez as the staff ace. I’m going to agree with Andy on this not only because of what Flaherty has demonstrated on and off the mound but also what Martinez has done on and off the mound.

    Martinez has tweeted porn, been arrested for a bar fight in St. Louis and changes his hair color from pink to gold to blue. He’s also shown some injury issues in the last year or so. I don’t think Martinez is mature enough or has his priorities straight to be the ace. Yeah, he has great stuff but his head isn’t on right. Honestly, I wouldn’t mind seeing them move him back to the bullpen where he had great success a couple years ago as a setup guy. I think he could make an outstanding closer.

    I hope you guys are right on your projections for Flaherty. If he takes a step forward, he could be dominant for years. If the league adjusts, he’ll have to adjust as well. I’m of the opinion he’ll succeed based on his work ethic, poise and demeanor. The kid is as even-keeled as they come.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Harley Earl: I despise C-Mart, never draft him, and agree with what Andy says. I wasn’t shading Andy.

      You hate me brah! hahahaha

      • Harley Earl says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz: Oh no! LOL!

        I don’t hate you at all Ralphy! You’re very smart and I listen to you as much as anyone on here!! I thought you were dissing Andy on his C-Mart comment. I must have read something into your look that really wasn’t there!!!

        My apologies Ralphy!!! Keep up the good work!

        P.S. — I call you Ralphy because it reminds me of the kid in A Christmas Story. It’s a term of endearment!

  3. Jordan S says:
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    In full dynasty, I have the opportunity to trade MY Flaherty for Keston Hiura plus a Mitch Keller/Dylan Cease type.. would you make a move like this? – sorry for lack of full context..

    • Andy Singleton says:
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      @Jordan S: I’m all about doubling up on assets, and I like Keller and Cease a lot. Don’t think either is a steep drop from Flaherty, but still think Flaherty is best of bunch. And then to get Hiura for free?! More context would help. Cease over Keller. Flaherty over all, if just one.

  4. John says:
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    Hey Guys great analysis :) Are you bullish enough to offer JV or Bauer for Flaherty straight up in a Dynasty 10 team Ottoneau scoring h2h pts league?

    • Andy Singleton says:
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      @John: I just might be, for Verlander. A lot more to do with the age, and thinking the range is similar now, and then continues longer with Flaherty having more years left than JV. I think you could still probably get a little more than straight up value, but don’t know your other Keepers, and in 10 teamer I’d bet they’re already pretty good.

      • John says:
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        @Andy Singleton: Degrom, Bauer, JV are my pitchers

  5. Skip Mcgillicuddy says:
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    Flaherty down the stretch struggled control, might have been the innings wearing on him. Lets hope he can withstand a 180+ ip at this stage of his career without withering late in the season (playoff time in fantasy). Otherwise, i think his multiple offerings keep hitters guessing. What he lacks in high-end velocity, he makes up for with his poise and pitch mix.

  6. BT says:
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    Funny you guys and Pollack have such differing opinions. Thinking of packaging Flaherty and Aguilar for Clevinger and P. Alonso. Thoughts? I’ve already got Hoskins manning 1B.

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