Late steals, or “cheeky swipes” as they call it across the ocean, are sometimes hard to find late in drafts. Well not hard to find just takes some digging and speculation.  The stolen base stat is a precipitously dying stat.  I mean, why steal a base when you can just hit a homerun?  Or that is the growing trend of the baseball thievery…  Last year 83 players stole 10 or more bases.  That number hasn’t really differed much in the last few years, the high in 2015 and the low being in 2016 of 79.  So while overall steals are down, the number in between the leader and the low end is just increasing in smaller increments.  So with the SAGNOF theory, saves and steals are the afterthought come draft day.  Not completely forgotten about or disregarded.  Just valued at a lower premium based on so many players being low category contributors across the board.  Sneak steals on draft day and getting the most out of your squeeze per investment into draft picks is the name of the game.  Paying a premium for the big hitting steals guys like Billy Hamilton, Dee Gordon and obvious top-5 overall pick in Trea Turner are all well and good, but at what cost in relation to their draft pick?  So the helpfulness of this post is to look at value according to ADP and the steals value the will give our team come opening day in the counting stat department.  Most of the players with steal appeal are MI eligible and on draft day, if you miss out early, it seems like the best place to look for straight SAGNOF satisfaction.

Here is a table of steals, caught stealing, and total steals across all of the MLB for the last five years so you didn’t think I was lying to you about the accumulation factors with SB’s…

Year SB CS Total
2017 2527 934 3461
2016 2537 1001 3538
2015 2505 1064 3569
2014 2764 1035 3799
2013 2693 1007 3700

Tim Anderson – You know when you buy a steak and it is so good that you literally try sucking the fat off the bone?  This is how I feel when looking at 2017 Anderson’s stats.  There’s a ton of meat on that bone to suckle on.  Grab the A1 sauce and eat it like a rib, who cares if you are in Peter Luger’s and people are offended?  They don’y play fantasy baseball anyways, screw them. Went 17/15 last year in 606 plate appearances.  Could see that being 22-25 in each category and at a ADP of 190-ish and obviously higher on the Grey scale.

Cameron Maybin – Gets signed by a need OF team and it completely reinvigorates his fantasy value.  Was being drafted in the 390 ange in NFBC and now that number should spike a bit with him getting 4 or more at bats in the trench known as Miami.  Had most steals since 2011, and I wonder if he is more like Jarrod Dyson, rather than a mixed league player, but steals are steals and they all count.

Orlando Arcia – Maturing and having better parts around him were the two things that I worried about before this season.  He has gotten a year older like most of us do, except 29-year-old woman, and now has more “batters”around him rather than “hitters”.  Stat-wise, look for a push for 20/20 with added runs scored.

Bradley Zimmer – Dudes got wheels.  I read somewhere he is seven-feet-per-second slower than Usain Bolt.  Gonna look funny running in those runners shorts or even trying to slide.  Will he get at-bats to get a pattern of building his on base skills, that is the question.  Saw 332 last year and got 18 swipes.  Give him 550 or more and we could be looking at 25-30.  Grey has him in the 170’s and NFBC is way stupider than Grey at 201.

Amed Rosario – He may be the only Mets player that has young working and functioning legs capable of stealing a base.  The Mets have a lot of swing and miss guys in their line-up and not a huge glut of high average move them around batters.  That is worrisome.  I hope he has the ability and natural instincts that he has shown to be growing over the last two years in minors and a stint last year where he amassed four steals.  OBP is always the draw back as the rule is still that you can’t steal first base.

Ketel Marte – My last entry into the semi-sleeper version and first entry into the SAGNOF fray this preseason.  Cheap 10/10 guys can be had all over and I bet streaming guys all year will give you about that just from a lucking out factor. But I like the line-up and I think he will capitalize on the no hype this year as opposed to last year everyone being ‘oooh look at the puppy syndrome’.  High side 15 Hrs and 18 steals.  Plenty of runs and depending on where he hits in lineup the RBI’s may be there too.  Grey is way off the register with him having an infinite sign plus 3 for his rank and the NFBC agrees at 350. Last gasp, I forgot to draft a MI type thing, but with surprises…maybe.

  1. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Here’s my favorite Tim Anderson SB stat (Grey may have mentioned this and I just forgot):

    March – August 31, 2017 . . . 5 SB total (1 CS)
    September/October (basically 1 mo and change) . . . 9 (!!!) SB (0 CS)

    When interviewed, Anderson literally said something to the effect of “I realized I probably should run more, so I decided to”.

    Couple that with articles like this one from last week, and he’s my bet for flirting with 40.

    https://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/tim-anderson-wants-to-keep-running-with-head-on-fire/

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @Smokey: Think he’s someone I can snag in the reserve rounds of a 12 team roto, or should i spend my MI on him? Was hoping to do a MI/2B/SS combo with 2 of Story/Odor/Taylor/Albies/Peraza/Villar . . .

  2. PatPat says:
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    No Deshields?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @PatPat: didn’t include alot, but he is in this bunch.

  3. Pouss-Pouss says:
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    Ketel Marte cheap.
    Ketel cheap.
    Kettle cheap.
    Kettle chip.
    Kettle chips.

    …mmm…

  4. jon says:
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    R 2B 3B HR RBI BB AVG SB

    Whos the better own- Arcia- Peraza- Villar-Anderson-owings- Jorge Polanco- Crawford

    please rank top 3 only, thanks in advance

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @jon: Villar, Peraza, Arcia than Anderson

  5. thorbs says:
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    You’ve got a couple guys I like there in Anderson and Marte…how would you compare them to an established, boring guy like Kinsler, or even an “out-of-nowhere” sort of hitter like Chris Taylor?

    In a 12-team dynasty league (10×10), I’m torn between Knebel, Kinsler, Anderson or Marte as my last keeper, and am kind of thinking Knebel or Kinsler might be the best choice and then try to draft Anderson or Marte a bit early, but all these sleeper articles are killing my strategy!

  6. MakeLoveLikeWar says:
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    Smokey! Help! This is my first season. It’s a 12-team 5×5 with 9 hitters, 7 pitchers (3xSP, 2xRP, 2xP), 5 bench spots, and 2 DL.

    I’m confused about how to allocate pitcher slots between SP and RP. What’s the general goal for number of starters? Grey suggested my breakdown should be something like 4 starters, 4 relief, 3 closers (using 4 of my 5 bench spots on pitchers).

    What’s the benefit of a relief pitcher over an extra starter? Like, if I have the option to do Archer+Tanaka+Castillo+Bauer+Wacha… should I skip Bauer or Wacha and take a non-starter instead? I get confused by the categorization of “starter vs relief vs closer” and “SP vs RP”.

  7. pdo says:
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    Not to the topic on hand but definitely in your wheelhouse…. who will this years Peacock/Montgomery be: hi k/9 that will evolve into SP/RP status? Thanks!

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