Good Day All,
We find ourselves in the dog days of summer. Congrats to those in the hunt of their respective leagues, and congrats to those still reading these articles. If you’re in a keeper league, your trade deadline has likely come and gone, and accordingly, you have a good idea if your team is a contender or pretender for this year. Keeper leagues are all about having the best cheap talent year in and year out. If you’re lucky enough to have a league that has little managerial turnover, you have a good idea of the types of players that are both over and undervalued based on the idiosyncrasies of your league. More often than not, good players that miss chunks of the previous season (looking at you Jonathan India and Brandon Lowe) and good players on bad MLB teams are often overlooked (Nico Hoerner and Josh Rojas).
That being said, here’s a look at a few somewhat underrated players, some players that have not had good fortune in 2022, and some players that will end up on some sleeper lists that could pay solid dividends next draft season:
Jonathan India – Reds – One of our favorite players entering draft season this year, India has dealt with a malady of injuries this year, most notably the hamstring injury. As India owns an underwhelming 29/8/25/.243/.303 line, he figures to fall a couple rounds in 2023 drafts. I’m not too confident he finishes out the year strong as leg/lower half injuries are not ideal for baseball players, but a full offseason of rest and rehab should restore India to the Rookie of the Year type player he showed he could be last year.
Brandon Lowe – Rays – Another Razzball favorite this draft season, Lowe fell victim to a back injury that cost him significant time this year. A 30/8/25/.229/.305 line looks atrocious, but similar to India, an offseason of rest should do wonders for Lowe. Looking under the hood, Lowe’s exit velocity numbers are in line with his career numbers and he has even cut his K% down a tad. Keep in mind Lowe hit 39 homers last year. I’m expecting another couple-round discount on him in 2023 drafts.
Nico Hoerner – Cubs – Nico Hoerner was largely undrafted this season (particularly in my 18 team home league) and still remains criminally underrated in Yahoo (51% rostered). Hoerner’s on pace for a 15/25, .290+ season while showing tremendous gains in his strike zone awareness (11.3 K%). Hoerner is 25 and may even have more room to grow in the power department as he enters his prime. Hoerner’s firmly on my watch list and I’m particularly interested to see where he’s drafted next season. If it’s past 200 ADP, you may have a league-winner on your hands.
Josh Rojas – Diamondbacks – Rojas has a solid 50/7/38/.288/.360/17 line in around 300 at-bats this year. While his .280+ batting average is likely a mirage as his xBA is .246, Rojas has multi-positional eligibility and will provide a solid source of runs and stolen bases later on in drafts. There was some speculation Rojas could get traded at the deadline, but perhaps Rojas gets traded to a better team in the offseason, boosting his counting stats.
Max Muncy – Dodgers – Muncy’s been dealing with significant injuries all season, but is still exhibiting elite plate discipline (16.5 BB%) and has had a great month at the dish (15/6/15/.256/.343) and is back to hitting the ball hard. Even if Muncy finishes the year strong, it’s likely he’s burned enough owners to have a significant draft discount next season. More time distanced from his UCL injury should help him return to form in 2023.
Gunnar Henderson – Orioles – Gunnar hasn’t been called up yet as of this submission, but there are signs indicating a call-up is imminent. According to calculations, if Henderson is called up after 8/21, he won’t make the 130 at-bats necessary to qualify for rookie eligibility. Gunnar has been crushing AAA, and the Norfolk Tides have been giving him reps around the infield as the Orioles determine the best place for their #1 prospect to make an impact as the Orioles are in the Wild Card hunt. A strong cup of coffee could provide a huge boost to Gunnar’s value next season.
Vaughn Grissom – Braves – It seems like the gap from AA to MLB is getting smaller and smaller as players such as Michael Harris II and Vaughn Grissom have been experiencing immediate MLB success. Grissom hit the ground running with a 12/3/8/.385/.442/2 line over his first 39 at-bats. Although Ozzie Albies is due to return soon, Grissom is a player that MLB clubs get creative in finding ways to get at-bats for. Suddenly the Braves don’t have as much urgency to re-sign Dansby Swanson. It would seem that time is ticking on Marcell Ozuna and Robbie Grossman’s tenure in Atlanta. Hopefully, Grissom doesn’t get too overrated in drafts next season.
Fernando Tatis Jr. – Padres – While FTJ is likely Public Enemy #1 in San Diego right now as he serves his PED suspension the rest of this year into next, FTJ’s draft stock has been freefalling. Some bold managers will inevitably take the risk that Tatis will remain the same player with the same skill set he showed us pre-motorcycle accident and pre-PED suspension. Maybe his positive PED test really was for treating ringworm!
Adalberto Mondesi – Royals – Just kidding. But his 2023 draft stock will be the lowest it’s ever been. Make of that what you will.
Have a great week!
