Welcome back Razzballeroos. It’s Tuesday, which means another dose of SAGNOF stolen base goodness coming your way before Truss tells me how badly I am doing in the Perts League in the RCL update. Last week, we looked at catchers to target when looking for stolen bases, and today we’ll take a flipside view and peek at some starters to target when stolen bases are your goal.
A Couple of things I like to look at when targeting starters to stream against are as follows…. First, Stolen Base success rate against tells me if a pitcher does a good job holding runners. It is also a function of pitcher time to home plate, but they go hand in hand. Secondly, SB/IP is another key metric which showcases both traffic allowed on base paths and the ability to keep runners from taking an extra base.
With those thoughts in mind, here are my Top 5 starters to target when looking for steals. All the stats discussed here are from the start of 2024.
Edward Cabrera – Marlins – He’s allowed a large total of 28 steals against, and runners are succeeding at an 84.8% clip. That’s good for .252 SB/IP. That means he allows a stolen base about once every four innings. Just to give you an example of what pitchers with elite base holding skills can do, Bailey Ober is currently rocking a .025 SB/IP. That’s a stolen base every 40 innings for you non-math majors out there.
Andre Pallante – Cardinals – Here’s a guy with another large total of steals given up at 30. His success rate against is 90.9%, and the SB/IP is at .203.
MacKenzie Gore – Nationals – It’s strange for a lefty not named Jon Lester to struggle holding runners on, but Gore certainly fits the bill. He also checks in with 30 stolen bases allowed since the start of 2024 and has a success rate against at 88.2%. He’s a little better in the SB/IP department at .149, but that’s all due to just guys that don’t know how to run against lefties even if they suck with their move to first. The guys that know how to steal aren’t slowing down a bit against Gore.
Corbin Burnes – Diamondbacks – A guy that limits traffic like Burnes shouldn’t have a SB/IP as high as he does at .195. However, he rarely throws over and has a huge leg raise to home plate even with runners on. Runners succeed at 86% against him and he leads the majors with 43 stolen bases allowed since the start of 2024.
Mitch Keller – Pirates – 39 Stolen bases allowed. 97.5% success rate against. .184 SB/IP. Enough said.
Let’s take a look at the stolen base leaderboard for this week.
Pete Crow-Armstrong who I traded to Truss last week in Perts for Luke Jackson ties the Cruz Missile for the top spot this week. Since the trade Jackson has exactly zero saves for me. The other Cruz first name Elly also shot up the board this week as well.
The Speed Dials:
We’re 2 for 8 on the season in Speed Dials. Remember, these are exact dates to pick up and stream steals guys in daily leagues, and these stats and analysis include 2024 and 2025 data.
Phillies Vs Nationals – Tuesday, April 29th
Johan Rojas – He is finally starting to see more consistent ABs, albeit out of the #9 hole. Stolen bases have converted for him 28 of 33 times. The average is up to .265, and he’ll be in the lineup for sure against lefty and Can’t Hold Us Target Mackenzie Gore. You know Gore’s stats from above, and one of the contributing reasons they’re so bad is his catcher, Keibert Ruiz. He is 66 of 69 qualified catchers on the throwing leaderboard and only stops runners at 16%.
Cubs vs Pirates – Wednesday, April 30th
Jon Berti – Berti is so back. He’s still got great sprint speed at 28.7 Ft/sec, and he’s 7 for 7 on stolen bases this year and starting at third most days while hitting .300. He’ll face the Pirates and young pitcher Carmen Mlodzinski. Small data set on him so far but runners are 8 for 8 on stolen base attempts. Joey Bart and Henry Davis are both middle of the road catchers in the throwing department.
Rangers vs Athletics – Thursday, May 1st
Leody Taveras / Kevin Pillar – Taveras has been losing starts to Kevin Pillar against lefties, so check the lineup here, but this is a play against Jeffrey Springs. Like Gore, he’s got a weak lefty move. He’s allowed .245 SB/IP to go with a 93.8% success rate against. One of these guys gets on, they are getting a stolen base.
Padres vs Pirates – Friday, May 2nd
Jose Iglesias – He’s old. The most he has ever stolen in a season is 15 bases, but he’s now in a good situation with a coach who likes to run ,and he’s still above average with a 28.3 Ft/sec sprint speed. He’ll face one of our targets above Mitch Keller on Friday.
That’s all, folks. Any other questions, hit me up here on or on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche
Is it better or worse if Truss doesn’t mention you at all?
Usually better