While young players with new opportunities are an exciting way to find late-season value another great source is bounce-back players. Players who may have started off hot, then struggled mid-season and are turning it around as the season draws to a close. In most deep leagues, these players will likely be held but if you check the wire in your shallow leagues some owners may have cut bait already. One that comes to mind is Robbie Grossman. Grossman was a popular pick in draft season and was downright dreadful in the first half. His BA has not bounced back at all but he already has matched his homer and SB output from the first half of the season in nearly a third of the at-bats. He is probably not playing well enough for everyday at-bats but he could be a cheap speed source.
- Jose Siri (TB) – Siri was a formerly hyped prospect who I have spoken about before in this article. He struggled with the Astros and was sent to Tampa where he excelled. He has a unique power speed blend. He may be on many wires freely available to be picked up.
- Bryson Stott (PHI) – Stott was another guy who was loved by analysts when he won a starting role in Philly out of the gate. He was downright dreadful and was sent down early. However, he is now playing regularly and has swiped four bases over the last 30 days. The full-season line might be blocking some owners from adding him in shallow leagues.
- Geraldo Perdomo (ARI) – Perdomo does not fit the “bounce back” candidate mold as he is still struggling in most offensive categories but he’s playing regularly for a much-improved offense and has also swiped four bases in the last month. He is likely on most wires outside of the deepest of leagues.
- Tyler O’Neill (STL) – Once again he may not be on many wires but it may be easy to miss what O’Neill has done lately. He has three steals and seven homers in the last month. This is what everyone who drafted him had hoped for in the offseason. While you may not be able to do much actionable with this now do not forget this run when drafting next season.
|Christian Vazquez||– – –||46||19||29.2%||766||0.06|
For what seems like the first time all season, we have a new leader on the stolen bases allowed leaderboard. Austin Nola has overtaken Jacob Stallings allowing 53 stolen bases so far. This is largely due to the additional innings Nola has played with the injury to Jorge Alfaro. Instead of targeting specific streaming matchups, it is becoming more and more important to take a holistic rest-of-season look at who your stolen base threats are getting the last few weeks. You want to make sure to add players who project to face the Padres, Marlins, and Rangers over the last several weeks while avoiding those who get the Phillies, Athletics, and Astros.
For example, the Phillies have two remaining series with the Marlins and Braves. This may mean downgrades to players like Jon Berti and Joey Wendle going forward as their stolen base opportunities might be a bit less than expected. This type of analysis is worthwhile when chasing stolen bases.