Well, he did it again. By he I mean Elly De La Cruz. 6 stolen bases and counting since the last SAGNOF article dropped, including a steal of home (granted it was a double steal and the throw got into Center Field, but still.) The most impressive thing so far has been the improved patience and batting eye at home plate for Elly. Walk rate now at 15% and he has dropped his K rate 3 points down to 30.7%. Maybe he was worth where he was being drafted as he has seven Home Runs to go with those 18 steals….before the end of April.
Here’s the current Stolen Base Leader Board through Sunday, April 28th with Elly at the top.
Now let’s take a look at a SAGNOF target that is actually possibly available on your fantasy waiver wire. Luis Rengifo is his name and stealing more bases in April than he did in the entirety of 2024 is his game. Actually, this seems to be the entire Angels squad under Ron Washington’s tutelage. There have been 26 Angels stolen bases so far in 2023 vs 72 in all of 2024. Here’s what I said about Washington in the pre-season – SAGNOF: The Legend Of Whiteyball
After a first few weeks of not knowing if Rengifo was going to get playing time he has now started all but two games since April 14th. Since earning everyday playing time he has raised his average from.244 to .289 and stolen five bases. Rengifo was also able to get into the Home Run Column on Sunday so hopefully, there’s some power coming as well. I also think based on his other lead-off hitter performances this year it is possible that Ron Washington will get Rengifo some games at the top of the lineup.
The Rengifo speed data isn’t elite as he has a league average sprint speed of 27.3 ft/sec. His success rate in 2022 and 2023 was only 66.7% at 12 for 18. Here in 2024 however we see Luis at a perfect 7 for 7. He is up to 153rd on the Razzball player rater and climbing and is currently available in 62.5% of leagues. If you’re in need of some steals there’s worse places to look.
The Speed Dials
We went 0 of 4 last week. Our first goose egg on the season. Remember these are exact dates to pickup and stream steals guys in daily leagues. That means we are now 5 for 20 on the season. Reminder these stats and analysis includes 2023 and 2024 data.
Astros vs Guardians – Wednesday May 1st
Chas McCormick – McCormick was a trendy later pick in deep drafts, but not a month into the season we find him struggling for playing time against righties. He has stolen two bases thus far in 2024, and if he is in the lineup on Wednesday I see a third and maybe a fourth in his future versus one of my favorite SB targets Trsiton McKenzie. With 9 stolen bases allowed and .237 SB/IP McKenzie has yet to stop a runner stealing a base against him. Bo Naylor has been a target to run on as well with only a 13% success rate in stopping runners.
Guardians vs Astros – Thursday May 2nd
Will Brennan – Same two teams, but making a play on the young Guardians outfielder here. His sprint speed is a slightly above average 28.2 ft/sec and he is 15 for 20 in SB attempts in his career. He will face Spencer Arrighetti who has struggled to limit traffic on the bases so far and people taking extra bags once they get on. Small sample size, but opponents are 2 for 2 and he boasts a .187 SB/IP ratio. Yainer Diaz is in the top third of catchers in throwing with a 25% success rate.
Blue Jays vs Nationals – Friday May 3rd
Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Who doesn’t like running up the score on Patrick Corbin? IKF sure does. He still has above league average sprint speed and is 16 of 21 in SB attempts the last two seasons. Corbin has allowed a whopping 34 Steals since the start of 2023 good for .161 stolen bases per IP with an 85% success rate. Having Keibert Ruiz as his catcher doesn’t help, as he is last among qualified catchers at cutting down base stealers.
Yankees vs Tigers – Saturday May 4th
Oswaldo Cabrera – Cabrera is getting the green light and taking advantage of it with 11 of 12 successful stolen base attempts. He isn’t lightning fast at 27.8 Ft/Second on the bases, but his jumps are tops. He will face Kenta Maeda and his .118 SB/IP and 88.2 % success rate allowed. Both Trevino and Wells are middle of the pack at catcher in throwing. May the Schwartz be with you.
As always, if you’re looking for anything further out for next week where we don’t have exact pitching match-ups hit me up here or on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche
Thanks Knoche! These articles have been invaluable.
Appreciate you reading them!
Such a strange article. How can an article about steals not even mention Jacob Young. And Oswaldo Cabrera has one single steal this year. Not 11.
Thanks for reading! It’s a weekly article and Jacob Young has been mentioned in some previous ones. He is a prime SAGNOF target.
The Speed Dials section looks at guys who have good situations to run vs a certain combo of pitchers/catchers. It shows stats for 2023 and 2024 as we are so light into 2024 numbers thus far.